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ESPN Analytics' live NFL playoff chances -- which combine current in-game win probabilities with our
Football Power Index (FPI) season projections -- provide each team's postseason likelihood at any given moment, starting with Monday night's
49ers-Colts game (8:15 p.m. ET, ESPN/ABC) and continuing throughout the entire
Week 17
and
Week 18
slates. The projected
final standings
will update regularly, and we're also tracking a few tight postseason races and the projected
2026 draft order for non-playoff teams. See how things stack up in both conferences throughout every game for the rest of the regular
season.
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With two weeks -- plus one exciting Week 16 "Monday Night Football" game -- left in the season, there are still seven playoff spots (five
in the AFC, two in the NFC) and seven division titles there for the taking. Only the Broncos, Patriots, Eagles, Seahawks, Rams, Bears and 49ers have secured playoff berths. Plus, the No. 1 seed
hasn't been clinched in either conference.
We're tracking the closest, most interesting races live. We have you covered through all the swings, big plays and surprises. Monday night's
game has implications in two divisions, so let's take a closer look at three-team races in both the NFC West
and AFC South.
The NFC West is getting wild. The Rams, Seahawks and 49ers have all clinched playoff berths, and�each team has a legitimate�chance to take the division title. The Seahawks jumped into the driver's seat Thursday by beating the Rams in overtime. However, the Rams have a soft remaining schedule with the Falcons and Cardinals on deck, whereas the Seahawks have to face the Panthers and 49ers to close the season; things could flip back around.
But don't sleep on San Francisco. If the Niners beat the Colts on Monday, they�will�be 11-4 -- tied with the Rams and one game back from the Seahawks. And�the Niners�still have a meeting with Seattle looming in Week 18 after a Sunday night game against the Bears. There's a lot at play here.
While 14 teams will ultimately make the playoffs, 18 others start their offseasons at the conclusion of Week 18. Those franchises will soon be making personnel decisions, evaluating their
coaching staffs, working the trade market and navigating the
free agent pool. But the 2026 NFL draft also lies ahead (April 23 in Pittsburgh).
Four first-round picks have been traded, which means 28 teams will have the chance to land at least one top prospect on Day 1. (The Falcons' pick
belongs to the Rams, the Jaguars' pick
belongs to the Browns, the Colts' pick
belongs to the Jets and the Packers' pick
belongs to the Cowboys.)
Who is set up to land Indiana's
Fernando Mendoza, Ohio State's
Arvell Reese or Notre Dame's
Jeremiyah Love? Here is how the draft order
projects at this moment for the league's bottom 18 teams, along with their chances to pick at No. 1 or in the top five.
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Playoff probabilities are updated as the games progress, based on ESPN Analytics' live win probabilities and its NFL
Football Power Index
(FPI) projections. Live in-game win probabilities weigh multiple factors, including score, time remaining, field position, down-and-distance, team opponent strength and game site. These
live probabilities are used by the FPI's projections, which simulate the season based on each team's strength, schedule and tiebreaker rules. The result is a live representation of a
team's various playoff, division and seeding chances, along with an updated projection of the final standings. Those simulations also project the top 18 picks in the 2026 draft.
Produced by ESPN Creative Studio: Nick Devlin, Jarret Gabel, Luke Knox, Rami Moghadam, Munehito Sawada and Garrett Siegel.
Illustrations by MASA. ESPN Analytics: Henry Gargiulo, Matt Morris and Lauren Poe.
