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There are three weeks left in the 2025 NFL regular season, which means the top part of the�2026 draft�order is nearly set. When the regular season ends in early January, we will know the slots for the top 18 picks. But using ESPN's Football Power Index (FPI), we can�project the entire order for all 32 selections a little early.
Each week during the season, ESPN's FPI projects the draft order by simulating the remainder of the season 10,000 times. Game probabilities are based primarily on the model's team ratings and game locations. The draft order is determined by the records the model projects for each team after 17 games, as well as each team's average draft position across the simulations.
Our FPI predictions are currently giving the Raiders the first pick, but who is behind them in the top 10? Where could teams with two first-round picks�end up selecting? Which teams are locked into the top five? Check out our full projections below ahead of Week 16.
Average draft position: 2.5
FPI chance to earn No. 1 pick: 39.8%
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 93.3%
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 100.0%
Average draft position: 3.1
FPI chance to earn No. 1 pick: 18.9%
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 90.2%
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 100.0%
Average draft position: 3.2
FPI chance to earn No. 1 pick: 19.2%
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 88.1%
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 100.0%
Average draft position: 3.9
FPI chance to earn No. 1 pick: 16.0%
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 75.9%
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 100.0%
Average draft position: 4.5
FPI chance to earn No. 1 pick: 5.7%
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 70.2%
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 99.8%
Average draft position: 6.0
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 38.8%
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 98.6%
Average draft position: 6.7
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 25.7%
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 98.1%
Average draft position: 7.6
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 12.8%
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 93.6%
Average draft position: 9.3
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 3.5%
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 72.8%
Average draft position: 9.5
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 1.5%
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 73.6%
Average draft position: 11.4
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 36.6%
Average draft position: 12.4
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 15.7%
Average draft position: 13.7
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 4.7%
Average draft position: 14.2
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 5.7%
Average draft position: 15.9
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 0.3%
Average draft position: 17.5
Average draft position: 18.1
Average draft position: 19.6
Average draft position: 20.2
Average draft position: 20.5
Average draft position: 22.4
Average draft position: 24.4
Average draft position: 24.8
Average draft position: 25.0
Average draft position: 25.1
Average draft position: 25.4
Average draft position: 25.4
Average draft position: 25.8
Average draft position: 25.8
Average draft position: 26.8
Average draft position: 28.5
Average draft position: 28.8
