New England Patriots

FPI's odds to win the Super Bowl: 43%

Seed: No. 1, AFC | Record: 14-2 | Up next: Texans/Raiders/Dolphins

New England's season has been defined by overcoming absent contributors. First, it went 3-1 in the first four games of the season while Tom Brady was suspended. More recently, the Pats went 8-0 without star tight end Rob Gronkowski in the lineup. The Pats have run the ball more effectively than in years past and got an 18-touchdown season out of LeGarrette Blount, who came within one carry of becoming just the second Patriots back in the Bill Belichick era to finish with 300 rushing attempts in a season.

And yet, one of the reasons the Patriots have done so well in 2016 has been their ability to keep guys on the field. After returning third-string quarterback Jacoby Brissett to the roster in December, the Pats finished the year having placed just three players on injured reserve: Gronkowski, fellow tight end Greg Scruggs and linebacker Jonathan Freeny. The rest of the league averaged just over 12 players on injured reserve by the end of the campaign, while the 11 other playoff teams have an average of 9.7 players on IR.

Brady has been able to keep a post-Gronk offense afloat, so the defense might determine how far the Patriots go this postseason. It looks great this season, having finished the year allowing a league-low 250 points, but Matt Patricia's defense isn't as good as it seems. It's a middling 16th in Football Outsiders' DVOA statistic, which accounts for down, distance, game situation and the quality of the opposition on a play-by-play basis. That final condition is important here: The Patriots played the easiest slate of opposing offenses in the NFL this season.

The offense also left New England's defense with the longest average starting field position in football to defend; opposing offenses needed to go 75.1 yards for a touchdown. The difference between the Patriots and a league-average team's field position amounted to 612 yards over the course of the season, which is a decent chunk of change for a team that allowed 5,223 yards this year.

Kansas City Chiefs

FPI's odds to win the Super Bowl: 9.7%

Seed: No. 2, AFC | Record: 12-4 | Up next: Steelers/Texans/Raiders

The formula for the Chiefs to win football games is simple, but brutally effective: avoid turnovers on offense, play the field-position game, force the opposing team to drive the length of the field and create big plays on defense and special teams. It's old-school football with a twist, as Andy Reid incorporates a short passing game as an extension of their rushing attack.

With the help of rookie wideout Tyreek Hill and star safety Eric Berry, the Chiefs have been able to create more of those game-changing plays when their offense is on the sideline than anybody else in football this season. They've scored eight touchdowns on defense and special teams in 2016, six of which have traveled 40 yards or more. Throw in a safety and Berry's game-winning "pick-two" interception return of a two-point try in Atlanta, and the Chiefs have scored 52 points on defense this season. The league as a whole averaged 15 points scored on returns from defense and special teams this year.

One disconcerting element for the Chiefs, though, has to be Alex Smith's surprising sloppiness in the red zone. Smith has generally been all business inside the opposition's 20, but he has thrown three interceptions on 63 attempts in the red zone this year. During the three preceding seasons with the Chiefs, Smith threw just three red zone interceptions in 190 passes. Two of those interceptions cost the Chiefs dearly, in two-point losses to the Buccaneers and Titans.

Finishing with the second seed is a boon to the Chiefs, who will host a playoff game for just the second time since 2003. Kansas City ended its eight-game playoff losing streak by blowing out the Texans in Houston last January, but the Chiefs' faithful haven't seen a home playoff win in 22 years. The winning quarterback on that day -- Jan. 8, 1994 -- was Joe Montana. Hill wasn't born until March 1 of that year.

Pittsburgh Steelers

FPI's odds to win the Super Bowl: 4.1%

Seed: No. 3, AFC | Record: 11-5 | Up next: Dolphins

The Steelers are currently in the midst of one of the more obscure -- and incredible -- streaks in football: They haven't allowed an opposing defense to score on a fumble or interception return since Week 3 of the 2013 season. Now, they needed Browns defensive back Briean Boddy-Calhoun to fumble into the end zone for a touchback to keep their run going through the end of 2016 ... but still, it's the second-longest streak in NFL history.

Pittsburgh's defense is a work in progress, thanks to an inexperienced secondary, disappointing performances from its young edge rushers and the absence of injured defensive lineman Cameron Heyward, who might be its best defender. The one place the Steelers have excelled, though, is inside their 20. Red zone performance tends to be random from year to year, but the Pittsburgh defense has been great against its own goal line two years running.

Since the beginning of 2015, Mike Tomlin's defense has allowed opposing offenses to score an average of just 3.74 points per red zone trip, the lowest figure in football. Given that only four teams have given up more red zone opportunities than the Steelers over that time frame, the work done by Lawrence Timmons & Co. has been enormously important to keeping Pittsburgh afloat. Kicking field goals against a Steelers team possessing one of the best offenses in football is a dangerous and often unsuccessful way to live.

Houston Texans

FPI's odds to win the Super Bowl: 0.8%

Seed: No. 4, AFC | Record: 9-7 | Up next: Raiders

By most advanced metrics, the Texans are one of the worst playoff teams in recent history. They finished 29th in DVOA, falling between the Rams and 49ers, both of whom fired their head coaches this season. Their minus-49 point differential is the fourth-worst figure for a playoff team since the league went to its current divisional structure in 2002. (Texans fans might happily note that the three teams with a worse point differential each won a playoff game.)

Houston is here because it went 8-2 in games decided by seven points or fewer and nearly ran the table in the lowly AFC South, going 5-0 before losing a meaningless Week 17 game to the Titans. The Texans won just two games against teams with a winning record, one of which came versus the Chiefs in Week 3 during the one game all season in which J.J. Watt looked anything like his usual self. The other was a seven-point victory over the Lions, who were the Texans of the NFC and finished 27th in DVOA.

One thing the Texans do well, though, is stop the pass. They're fifth in pass defense DVOA this season, with Jadeveon Clowney and John Simon filling in to take some of Watt's pass-rushing duties. Opposing teams are averaging just 6.56 yards per pass against Houston this season, which is the second-best figure in the league behind the otherworldly Denver pass defense. And when the Texans get teams in third-and-long, Romeo Crennel's defense wins. The Texans have been among the best pass defenses in football when trying to push teams off the field, finishing in the top eight in QBR, yards per play and conversion rate on third and fourth down. They miss Watt -- it would be impossible not to -- but Houston's pass defense has been good enough to carry it to a second straight postseason.

Oakland Raiders

FPI's odds to win the Super Bowl: 0.8%

Seed: No. 5, AFC | Record: 12-4 | Up next: Texans

The Raiders will obviously not be the same without MVP candidate Derek Carr, who fractured his fibula in Week 16 and might have only an outside chance of making it back if the Raiders advance to the Super Bowl. Backup quarterback Matt McGloin promptly suffered a shoulder injury when he started in Week 17, turning the game over to rookie third-stringer Connor Cook, who predictably struggled in his professional debut against the Broncos' dominant pass defense.

While their ceiling with Cook is unquestionably lower, the Raiders aren't necessarily doomed. The Texans were able to survive a similar transition in 2011, when Matt Schaub's injury opened the job up for Matt Leinart, who was then hurt in his first start and gave way to rookie fifth-rounder T.J. Yates. Yates was uneven in five subsequent starts, but he was competent enough to avoid turnovers and win a playoff game against the Bengals in the wild-card round.

Cook will have some help, too. The Raiders have one of the NFL's best wide receiving corps, with Amari Cooper, Michael Crabtree and Seth Roberts. Unsurprisingly, for a team that invested so much in its offensive line over the past several seasons, the Raiders also do a great job of protecting their quarterback. Bill Musgrave's offense allowed Carr & Co. to be sacked on just 2.9 percent of their dropbacks this season, the best rate in football.

The Raiders also will get rookie safety Karl Joseph back for the playoffs, and they've been a different defense with him on the field. Joseph spent the first two games of the year on special teams and then missed the final four games of the season with a toe injury. With Joseph off the field, the Raiders have allowed a 76.2 QBR, which would be the worst figure in the league by nearly 10 points. That's compared with a 51.2 QBR allowed with Joseph on the field at safety, which would be the best figure in the league by nearly 5 points.

Miami Dolphins

FPI's odds to win the Super Bowl: 0.3%

Seed: No. 6, AFC | Record: 10-6 | Up next: Steelers

Sometimes, it's better to be lucky than smart. The Dolphins tried to upgrade at running back this offseason with no success. They gave C.J. Anderson a four-year, $18 million offer sheet with $10 million guaranteed, only for the Broncos to match. They signed Arian Foster, but Foster suited up only four times before retiring. As recently as Week 4, the Dolphins' backfield was a four-way split, with four players getting between seven and 14 snaps. Head coach Adam Gase characterized that rotation afterward as "poor coaching" and vowed to find a better solution.

Enter second-year back Jay Ajayi, who blew up with a 204-yard game against the Steelers two weeks later and hasn't looked back. Since that Week 6 contest, it's Ajayi -- not Ezekiel Elliott, David Johnson or Le'Veon Bell -- who leads the league in rushing yards with 1,155. The Dolphins also have given him a league-high 229 carries over that timespan, but Ajayi is averaging 5.04 yards per pop. The Dolphins have ridden Ajayi to a 9-2 record over that stretch and an unlikely playoff berth.

What has been most impressive with the 229-pound Ajayi has been his ability to throw off tacklers and continue for extra yardage. Among backs with 15 carries or more per game, Ajayi is averaging a league-best 2.52 yards per carry after first contact. To put that in context, ESPN Stats & Information has data on yards after contact going back through 2006. The only backs over that time frame to average more yards after contact in a season are Adrian Peterson during his MVP campaign in 2012 (2.93) and Marshawn Lynch in 2014 (2.53). The Dolphins will need Ajayi to keep it up to advance far this postseason.