ESPN

Most improbable Super Bowl-winning drives

Don’t be surprised if you see late-game heroics at Super Bowl LVII. After all, there have been 21 game-winning drives in Super Bowl history, including six that swung win probability (WP) by at least 50%, according to ESPN Stats & Information data. We dove deeper into those six 180-degree twists of fate, charting every famous — and not-as-famous — play that moved the line of scrimmage on each title-winning march.

Super Bowl LVI


WP CHANGE: 52%
RAMS 23, BENGALS 20

In his first season in Los Angeles, Matthew Stafford led the Rams to 12 wins, a career best for the ex-Detroit Lions quarterback. He then notched his first three career playoff wins. Going into the Super Bowl, Stafford’s Rams matched up equally with the Cincinnati Bengals, each entering with 50% win probability. But trailing 20-16 in the middle of the fourth quarter, the Rams’ probable win percentage had been cut in half.

WIN PROBABILITY
6:13-4:54 (Starting WP: 27%) HOW THE DRIVE BEGAN

After a 9-yard conversion and an incomplete pass on the first two plays of the drive, Cam Akers was stonewalled on third-and-1, presenting coach Sean McVay with a decision. Los Angeles was down four points with all three of its timeouts, but injuries, including to wide receiver Odell Beckham Jr. in the second quarter, had the Rams’ offense extremely short-handed.

4:54-4:37 (WP: 29%) THE KEY PLAY

On fourth-and-1, the Rams had two receivers, including Cooper Kupp, to the left and one to the right in a single-back set. Kupp came in motion and took the handoff on an end-around. He got a necessary block from tight end Brycen Hopkins, who had been inactive for most of the season, on Bengals defensive end Sam Hubbard to spring him. It was the first time the Rams — who gained 7 yards on the play — moved the chains with a rush in the game.

4:54-4:37 (WP: 29%) WHY IT MATTERED

The Rams were without four of their top six pass-catchers by receiving yards, and they would manage only 43 yards rushing in the game. They needed to find a way to get the ball to Kupp, who finished with eight catches for 92 yards and two touchdowns to earn Super Bowl MVP. Most importantly, though, Kupp’s lone rush of the game extended what would be a 15-play, nearly-five-minute drive.


“We thought that at some point in the game that we’d have a short-yardage situation with an opportunity for that play to come up. We didn’t know that it was going to come up on fourth-and-1.”
MATTHEW STAFFORD
4:37-1:25 (Ending WP: 79%) THE GAME WINNER

With 1:29 left, Stafford threw a back-shoulder fade to a single-covered Kupp to provide the final three-point margin. L.A. had practiced the play with Kupp in the slot and Beckham out wide. With Beckham injured, McVay's voice buzzed through the headset: Send Kupp out there. “I don't think I had thrown a single fade to Cooper all year in a game,” Stafford said.

SUPER BOWL XXXVI


WP CHANGE: 54%
PATRIOTS 20, RAMS 17

In the AFC Championship Game, Drew Bledsoe had come off the bench to spell an injured Tom Brady and beat the Steelers, forcing coach Bill Belichick to make a QB decision ahead of the Super Bowl. That quarterback turmoil — along with the fact the Rams led the NFL in regular-season scoring with 503 points — was a big reason the Patriots had a 3% win probability rating entering the matchup with St. Louis. But by the time the final two minutes came around, Brady was ready to write the first chapter of his storied career.

WIN PROBABILITY
1:21-0:29 (Starting WP: 46%) HOW THE DRIVE BEGAN

Brady, a first-year starter, had no timeouts, 1:21 on the clock and a long way to go, backed up to his own 17-yard line. With the score tied at 17, John Madden suggested on the Fox broadcast that the Patriots play for the first Super Bowl overtime. “Wasn't a whole lot of talk about it,” Troy Brown said. Instead of taking knees, Brady completed three passes to running back J.R. Redmond as the Patriots neared midfield.

0:29-0:21 (WP: 66%) THE KEY PLAY

“It was called 64 All In,” said Brown, who remembered the Rams’ soft zone coverage. “I had to find a spot in there to give Tom a chance.” And he did, working across the field and out of bounds after a 23-yard gain. The ball was now at St. Louis’ 36-yard line and in range for Adam Vinatieri, who had just hit a game winner on a snow-covered field in the Tuck Rule game two weeks earlier.

0:29-0:21 (WP: 66%) WHY IT MATTERED

On fourth-and-3 with 10:09 left in the game, the Patriots returned a fumble 97 yards for a touchdown. It would have given them a comfortable 21-point lead, but it was called back because of defensive holding. The Rams scored two plays later and eventually tied the game. “The way things had been going, [the Rams] were scoring every time they were getting the ball,” Brown said. Brady-to-Brown helped make sure the Rams wouldn’t get it again.


“The idea was for me to score. If you can’t score, then you try to get the ball out of the bounds and save some timeouts. ... I didn’t even watch [Vinatieri’s game-winning field goal attempt]. I was just waiting for the crowd to make some noise.”
TROY BROWN
0:21-0:00 (Ending WP: 100%) THE GAME WINNER

Vinatieri’s swing from 48 yards out as time expired went about as straight down the middle as it gets. It marked the first Super Bowl to end in walk-off fashion. The Patriots won at the buzzer again in Super Bowl LI, this time with a James White touchdown that finished off a 25-point comeback against the Atlanta Falcons.

SUPER BOWL XLVI


WP CHANGE: 66%
GIANTS 21, PATRIOTS 17

The New York Giants won three of their last four regular-season games to sneak into the playoffs at 9-7. Three playoff victories later (including a 20-17 OT thriller in NFC Championship Game), the Giants were in the Super Bowl, set to face the juggernaut Patriots. New England’s lead was only two points when Eli Manning got the ball with 3:46 on the clock and one opportunity to shock the win probability algorithm, which gave the Pats a 70% chance to hold him.

WIN PROBABILITY
3:46 (Starting WP: 30%) HOW THE DRIVE BEGAN

After the Giants’ defense turned away Brady on a third straight drive, the Patriots elected to punt from New York’s 44. Giants return man Will Blackmon signaled for a fair catch at the 12-yard line. “Here we go; Eli Manning time,” Cris Collinsworth said on the NBC broadcast. “Unbelievable.” In his eighth season, Manning was looking for his fifth game-winning drive in the fourth quarter or overtime in the postseason.

3:46-3:39 (WP: 47%) THE KEY PLAY

Manning then completed perhaps the most precise pass in Super Bowl history, dropping a deep ball between two defenders along the left sideline. “Tampa 2 coverage was what they were in,” Manning said. “I put it in a spot [where it’s] either my guy or nobody.” His guy was receiver Mario Manningham, who tapped two feet in as he crashed out of bounds for a 38-yard gain.

3:46-3:39 (WP: 47%) WHY IT MATTERED

It was the first play of the drive and the most significant. “It really changed that whole drive,” Manning said. “Now all of a sudden we’re at the 50-yard line, and we can really take our time.” The quarterback found Manningham twice more and completed two passes to receiver Hakeem Nicks.


“Mario made an unbelievable catch, over his outside shoulder, falling to his left, about to take a hit and still kept two feet in bounds. Just a great play.”
ELI MANNING
3:39-1:04 (Ending WP: 96%) THE GAME WINNER

The Giants went ahead for good with 1:04 left when the Patriots’ defense retreated and allowed running back Ahmad Bradshaw — who tried and failed to go down at the 1-yard line to kill more clock — into the end zone. Just like in the first Super Bowl matchup between the teams, Brady had the ball with enough time to break the Giants’ hearts. But his tipped Hail Mary fell short of diving Patriots tight end Rob Gronkowski.

SUPER BOWL XLII


WP CHANGE: 71%
GIANTS 17, PATRIOTS 14

Brady’s 65-yard touchdown pass to Randy Moss against the Giants in the 2007 regular-season finale helped secure a 16-0 Pats campaign. A little more than a month later, the Patriots played the Giants again with a chance at Super Bowl victory and perfect 19-0 record. And this time, it was a grab that didn’t happen (by Patriots cornerback Asante Samuel) that turned the tide in the Giants’ favor.

WIN PROBABILITY
2:39-1:20 (Starting WP: 18%) HOW THE DRIVE BEGAN

The Giants faced a fourth-and-1 from their own 37-yard line, down four points and inside two minutes. Brandon Jacobs, the Giants’ 264-pound running back, surged forward to move the chains. With a new set of downs, quarterback Eli Manning scrambled right and was chased down by Adalius Thomas, who chopped at the ball from behind. Manning nearly lost possession, ending the play with the ball between his legs.

1:20-1:15 (WP: 14%) THE KEY PLAY

On the next play, Pats safety Rodney Harrison blitzed. Manning threw the ball right, in the direction of wideout David Tyree. “There was miscommunication on the inside to Steve Smith,” said Manning, who was visibly upset after the play. “He messed up a little bit, so I went outside to throw it away.” But the ball went right to Samuel ... who dropped it.

1:15-0:59 (WP: 34%) WHY IT MATTERED

If Samuel had caught it, one of the most consequential plays in Super Bowl history wouldn't have happened. One play after Samuel's drop came “The Helmet Catch” by Tyree. “Normally, it's usually not a great decision to throw up a ball in the middle of the field,” Manning said. It went for a 32-yard gain, putting the Giants deep in Patriots territory.


“I try not to think about it very often. I just did not throw it quite high enough or far enough away, so it was probably a little bit closer than I wanted it to be in that scenario.”
ELI MANNING
0:59-0:39 (Ending WP: 89%) THE GAME WINNER

Four plays later, the Patriots brought the house, and Manning found Plaxico Burress in the end zone for the go-ahead score with 39 seconds left. Brady had one more chance. And he almost salvaged the game by finding Moss on a heave that traveled nearly 70 yards in the air on third-and-20. It was knocked away by Giants defensive back Corey Webster inches from Moss’ fingertips, sending New England to 18-1.

SUPER BOWL XLIII


WP CHANGE: 73%
STEELERS 27, CARDINALS 23

Pittsburgh was looking for its second Super Bowl title in four seasons, while Arizona sought its first. The Steelers, who entered the game with an 80% probability to win, went ahead by 13 points in the third, powered by James Harrison’s record-setting 100-yard interception return to close the first half. But the Cardinals clawed back, scoring 16 points in nine minutes to go up 23-20. That left Pittsburgh with 2:30 on the clock and its lowest win probability of the game.

WIN PROBABILITY
2:30-1:02 (Starting WP: 24%) HOW THE DRIVE BEGAN

Two completions to Santonio Holmes helped the Steelers, who were trailing 23-20 at the two-minute warning, dig out of a first-and-20 hole to start the drive. Then, Ben Roethlisberger hit wideout Nate Washington for an 11-yard gain, although Washington couldn’t get out of bounds. The Steelers rushed to get the next play off, a 4-yard scramble by Roethlisberger that forced Pittsburgh to take its second timeout with 1:02 remaining.

1:02-0:49 (WP: 65%) THE KEY PLAY

On second-and-6 barely inside Arizona territory, Roethlisberger pumped once to the outside, then completed a pass to Holmes, who caught the ball even with the numbers on the Arizona 35. He pivoted past Cardinals DB Aaron Francisco, the nearest would-be tackler, who fell down. Francisco then chased down Holmes from behind, pulling him down at the 6-yard line.

1:02-0:49 (WP: 65%) WHY IT MATTERED

The Steelers were close enough for a chip-shot tying field goal attempt but also in position to take several tries at a go-ahead TD. Field position was important because Pittsburgh used its last timeout after Holmes’ 40-yard gain.

0:49-0:42 (Ending WP: 97%) THE GAME WINNER

Roethlisberger’s first shot at the end zone went through Holmes’ hands in the back left corner. Big Ben went right back to Holmes on the next play. This time he hauled in an acrobatic game winner, managing to tightrope the right corner with three defenders around him. A sack-fumble forced by Pittsburgh linebacker LaMarr Woodley and recovered by defensive end Brett Keisel sealed the game with 15 seconds left.

SUPER BOWL XXIII


WP CHANGE: 77%
49ERS 20, BENGALS 16

The 49ers, seeking their third championship of the 1980s under coach Bill Walsh, had an 80% win probability when Super Bowl XXIII kicked off, but the opposing Bengals had league MVP Boomer Esiason on their side. Cincinnati, which had been 4-11 in a strike-shortened season the year before, was up 16-13 and minutes away from upsetting one of the greatest teams ever for the franchise’s first title. Then the 49ers’ Hall of Fame duo of quarterback Joe Montana and wide receiver Jerry Rice took over.

WIN PROBABILITY
3:10-1:15 (Starting WP: 21%) HOW THE DRIVE BEGAN

In the shadow of his own goal line and down 3 points with just over three minutes to play, Montana turned to right tackle Harris Barton, who Montana knew was feeling the pressure, and pointed out comedy legend John Candy in the crowd. “[Montana] had situational low blood pressure,” center Randy Cross said. Montana then drove the Niners to the Bengals’ 35-yard line. But his sixth short completion of the drive was nullified when Cross was flagged for illegal man downfield, setting up a crucial second-and-20.

1:15-0:47 (WP: 48%) THE KEY PLAY

Cross’ penalty had pushed the 49ers out of field goal range. “But we had the best quarterback,” Rice said. “Jesus in cleats. Joe Montana.” Rice caught Montana’s next pass 9 yards short of the first down. But even though he was nursing an ankle injury, Rice was able to accelerate past four Bengals defenders for a 27-yard gain. It tied a then-Super Bowl single-game record for receptions (11) and broke one for receiving yards (215) that still stands.

1:15-0:47 (WP: 48%) WHY IT MATTERED

Other than the game’s most famous duo rewriting the record book? It put the Niners in position to go for the win. “You’re not talking about kicking a field goal and going to overtime,” Cross said. “You’re looking at ... ripping somebody's heart out.”


“We didn’t blink or anything. You’re going to have mistakes, but you have to overcome them.”
JERRY RICE
0:47-0:34 (Ending WP: 98%) THE GAME WINNER

Two plays later, with Rice drawing all the attention, receiver John Taylor caught the 10-yard game winner. Rice relished his role as a decoy. “I knew I had to be the best actor ever,” Rice said. “Denzel Washington, ready to win that Oscar.”

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