2025 NFL playoff picture: Final bracket, seeds, draft order
We followed the 2025 NFL season's playoff picture and several tight races in Week 18 -- including for the final postseason spots.
NFL playoff picture projections
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ESPN Analytics' live NFL playoff chances -- which combine current in-game win probabilities with our Football Power Index (FPI) season projections -- provided each team's postseason likelihood at any given moment throughout the Week 18 slate. Now, the final standings are in. See how things stack up in both conferences. We also tracked a few tight postseason races and the projected 2026 draft order for non-playoff teams.
Final NFC playoff picture
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Final AFC playoff picture
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Tracking Week 18 races
The regular season is over, and all 14 playoff teams are locked in. There were some interesting races on Sunday, and we followed four of them. The Steelers clinched the final playoff spot by winning the AFC North, while the Panthers won the NFC South to complete the NFC field (thanks to a Falcons win). The Jaguars became AFC South champions, and the Broncos joined the Seahawks as the 1-seeds for their respective conferences. Here's how it all went down in Week 18.
How the Steelers won the AFC North
Aaron Rodgers and the Steelers have won the AFC North and are officially in the playoffs. They beat the Ravens on Sunday night in a true winner-take-all matchup, securing the No. 4 seed in the AFC playoffs. Pittsburgh gets a home playoff game against the Texans, while Baltimore hits the offseason.
How the Broncos won the AFC 1-seed
The Broncos clinched the top seed in the AFC, and with it, they get a first-round bye and home-field advantage throughout the AFC playoffs. They beat the Chargers to secure the top spot and finish 14-3. The Patriots will be the 2-seed, while the Jaguars will be the 3-seed.
How the Jaguars won the AFC South
The Jaguars are officially the AFC South champions after beating the Titans and finishing 13-4. Jacksonville last won the division in 2022. Now it will have a home game against the Bills.
The Texans, meanwhile, fall to a wild-card berth and will go on the road next weekend. As the No. 5 seed, Houston will play the Steelers.
How the Panthers won the NFC South
The Buccaneers kept their playoff hopes briefly alive Saturday by beating the Panthers. But it wasn't enough. Because of tiebreakers, the Falcons' win over the Saints on Sunday handed the 8-9 Panthers the NFC South title and the No. 4 spot in the NFC playoff field.
The Buccaneers -- who had a 90.3% chance to win the division heading into their Week 9 bye, per ESPN's FPI -- are out of the playoffs. Tampa Bay lost seven of its final nine games.
Looking Ahead
While 14 teams will ultimately make the playoffs, 18 others start their offseasons at the conclusion of Week 18. Those franchises will soon be making personnel decisions, evaluating their coaching staffs, working the trade market and navigating the free agent pool. But the 2026 NFL draft also lies ahead (April 23 in Pittsburgh). Four first-round picks have been traded, which means 28 teams will have the chance to land at least one top prospect on Day 1. (The Falcons' pick belongs to the Rams, the Jaguars' pick belongs to the Browns, the Colts' pick belongs to the Jets and the Packers' pick belongs to the Cowboys.)
Who is set up to land Indiana's Fernando Mendoza, Ohio State's Arvell Reese or Notre Dame's Jeremiyah Love? Here is the draft order for the league's bottom 18 teams. The Raiders officially have the No. 1 overall pick, followed by the Jets, Cardinals, Titans and Giants.
Projected 2026 NFL draft order
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Methodology
Playoff probabilities are updated as the games progress, based on ESPN Analytics' live win probabilities and its NFL Football Power Index (FPI) projections. Live in-game win probabilities weigh multiple factors, including score, time remaining, field position, down-and-distance, team opponent strength and game site. These live probabilities are used by the FPI's projections, which simulate the season based on each team's strength, schedule and tiebreaker rules. The result is a live representation of a team's various playoff, division and seeding chances, along with an updated projection of the final standings. Those simulations also project the top 18 picks in the 2026 draft.
Produced by ESPN Creative Studio: Nick Devlin, Jarret Gabel, Luke Knox, Rami Moghadam, Munehito Sawada and Garrett Siegel.
Illustrations by MASA. ESPN Analytics: Henry Gargiulo, Matt Morris and Lauren Poe.
