Welcome back to the Next Gen Advantage, where each week we dive deep into the advanced statistics created through NFL Next Gen Stats player-tracking data to find little edges for fantasy managers. This week, we're diving into Week 16 blocking matchups in the ground game, plus some receivers to target in the long-term, based on how open they were and how often they were targeted in 2022.
Matchups in the trenches
One tool we like to rely on in this space is our win rates: specifically, run stop win rate (and the converse, run block win rate) to evaluate matchups for running backs. While we have very good production-based matchup data (yards per carry against or fantasy points against), I think run stop win rate adds to the conversation. The way I think of it: Run stop win rate is process, and yards per carry against is result. Both are useful. So with that in mind, let's take a look at upgrades and downgrades for running backs this week, based on the RSWR of their opponents.
Upgrade: Rhamondre Stevenson vs. Cincinnati Bengals
Bengals' RSWR rank: 29th
The win rates thought the Bengals were already a nice matchup for opposing rushers, even though their 4.0 yards per carry allowed to running backs isn't bad at all, but they look like a particularly appealing opponent now.
