We're almost two weeks into the 2026 FIFA World Cup, and the race for the Golden Boot -- given to the tournament's top goal scorer -- is red-hot.
The main contenders are also the most obvious names: Argentina's Lionel Messi, France's Kylian Mbappé, Norway's Erling Haaland and England's Harry Kane.
They have enjoyed prolific starts with multiple goals each in both their opening games, but who will be the best scorer in North America this summer?
Here are the main contenders for the title, and others who might just play their way into contention.
Lionel Messi, Argentina
Goals: 5
Assists: 0
Games: 2
Why he will win it: This one is easy, as Argentina's opening game showed all you need to see. World Cup hat tricks are not an everyday occurrence, and Messi had one against Algeria, his first in World Cup history. He added two more goals -- in doing so, he set a new all-time tournament goal record (18) -- and he still gets to face 68th-ranked Jordan in Argentina's final group game.
A deep run to the final, which defending champions Argentina are more than capable of, would give Messi a perfect chance to secure his first Golden Boot in this competition.
Why he won't: In truth, there are very few reasons to doubt Messi will end this tournament as the top scorer, but one stands out: Is Messi the best scorer in world football? Messi is still one of the best players on the planet, but at 38 -- he turns 39 on Wednesday -- he is no longer the best player on the planet. Harry Kane and Kylian Mbappé both had better goals-per-minute ratios than him last season, and over the course of a long tournament, both would be potential candidates to outscore him.
Remember, Messi has never won the Golden Boot -- Mbappé's final hat trick left him one ahead in 2022. Can Messi really going to win it during what we presume is his last dance?
Kylian Mbappé, France
Goals: 4
Assists: 0
Games: 2
Why he will win it: Alongside Harry Kane, Mbappé is one of two players at this World Cup who have previously won the Golden Boot, and he is playing like a man inspired to defend his 2022 crown. He netter a brace in France's tournament opener against Senegal and added another couple in their next game against Iraq. Even with a tough game against Norway to play, it would not be a shock to see him atop the table heading into the round of 32.
There is also an argument that France could be the highest-scoring team, should they go on a deep run. Mbappé is the focal point in a star-studded attack that also features Ousmane Dembélé, Désiré Doué and Michael Olise.
Why he won't: Typically, the Golden Boot winner comes from a team that reaches the semifinals, if not the final. France are the tournament favorites, meaning that should be somewhat expected. However, there is a decent chance they face Germany in the round of 16. By no means would that be an easy game, and an early exit would scupper Mbappé's hopes.
Erling Haaland, Norway
Goals: 4
Assists: 0
Games: 2
Why he will win it: After Norway's opening game against Iraq, in which Haaland netted twice in a 4-1 win, he was asked by reporters whether he was the best goal scorer in world soccer. "I would say I'm up there," he replied. "I don't think I scored the most goals this season, so statistically no. Harry Kane and [Kylian] Mbappé scored more goals than me and that's the reality."
Haaland was being modest. He added two more goals against Senegal, once again proving why he has a claim at being the best scorer in world soccer. As long as his side is in the World Cup, he will always have a great chance to be top of that stat pile.
"It's my specialty to score goals," Haaland told reports after the Senegal game. "I'm just really good at scoring goals."
Why he won't: Haaland, more than anyone on this list, could need to score lots of goals in the group stages to end up as the top scorer. Norway are an above-average team at this tournament -- ESPN's latest team power rankings has them at No. 11 -- but they've never made it past the first knockout game at a World Cup.
Can Norway make a deep run this year? Definitely, but it's not a given.
Harry Kane, England
Goals: 2
Assists: 0
Games: 2
Why he will win it: Check any scoring chart in Europe this year and there's a good chance Kane is No. 1 on it. The Bayern Munich striker's scoring form has been so good that he is firmly in the Ballon d'Or conversation. His two goals against Croatia in England's opening game got him off to a great start -- moving him onto 69 goals in 59 matches for club and country since August -- and though he and England drew a blank against Ghana, the final group game against Panama could see him pile on his goal tally. (The last time England faced Panama at a World Cup, in 2018, Kane scored a hat trick and later won the Golden Boot.)
Why he won't: There is kind of a myth around Kane that he can go missing in major tournaments, which is exceedingly harsh for a player who, against Croatia, equaled Gary Lineker's England record (10) for most career World Cup goals. Remember, he is also England's all-time leading scorer (81 goals).
That said, Kane managed only three goals at Euro 2024 because of a back injury, and England boss Thomas Tuchel would be clever to rest him as much as he can in the final two group games. As ESPN's James Olley wrote ahead of the World Cup, England cannot function without Kane. Keeping him fresh should be of primary concern.
Folarin Balogun, United States
Goals: 2
Assists: 0
Games: 2
Why he will win it: Goals are goals, and until Balogun stops scoring, he will be in the conversation. Co-hosts USMNT were mightily impressive in their opener against Paraguay, and Balogun was at the forefront of that effort.
Though Balogun might not be on the same level as No. 9's such as Kane and Haaland, he has a talent for going on prolific scoring spells: He netted in five of his first six games when he first broke out playing for Reims in 2022-23, and last season he enjoyed a run of scoring in eight straight Ligue 1 games for AS Monaco.
Why he won't: There are two main reasons that Balogun will struggle to keep up with other names on this list: He is unlikely to play as many games, and the USMNT likely won't score as many goals as Argentina, England and France by the time this summer is over. Maybe Balogun can become one of the big stories from this tournament, but it would take a lot more goals to end up with the Golden Boot.
OTHER CONTENDERS:
Vinícius Júnior, Brazil
The Brazil winger netted a super strike in the 1-1 draw with Morocco last week and followed up with another goal against Haiti on Friday. He is firmly in the conversation to be top scorer, but his game is not built around being a major scoring threat. In fact, he has only 11 goals in his entire 51-game Brazil career.
Kai Havertz, Germany
The Germany attacker is not a prolific scorer, but he is Germany's biggest goal threat and a player who often pops up with big goals as well as their standard penalty taker. It would likely take Germany to make a run all the way to the final, but that's not impossible. Also watch out for Deniz Undav, who has had a great start.
Lamine Yamal, Spain
Yamal played just 19 minutes against Cape Verde as he returns to fitness following a hamstring injury, and he missed his chance to get off the mark at this World Cup thanks in part to the heroics of now-viral goalkeeper Vozinha. It was only one game, though, and he made up for it being scoring 10 minutes into their next clash with Saudi Arabia.
Jonathan David, Canada
Roughly speaking, the Golden Boot can be clinched by scoring between five and eight goals. When you look at it like that, David is already halfway there. The Canada forward scored a hat trick in their second group game with Qatar, putting him at least in the conversation to be the top scorer at this World Cup. However, in an expanded 48-team tournament, the number of goals needed will likely increase.
