The destination of the Ballon d'Or is typically tough to predict. Just ask Real Madrid's Vinícius Júnior, who, in 2024, had spent weeks believing he would win the men's award only to learn hours ahead of the ceremony that it had gone to Manchester City midfielder Rodri instead.
This year, it is no less straightforward.
On the men's side, there are plenty of candidates: Teenager Lamine Yamal dazzled for Barcelona, Harry Kane scored more goals for Bayern Munich than he ever has before, Kylian Mbappé starred for Real Madrid, while the 2026 World Cup saw Lionel Messi and Rodri compete to be named the competition's best player (in the end, it went to Rodri).
And for the Ballon d'Or Féminin, Alexia Putellas is the favorite after captaining Barcelona to another quadruple, but she was far from the only world-class player on that team.
The winners for both will be revealed on Oct. 26 at a glitzy ceremony in London, alongside a number of other awards, but is there a way to gauge who will walk away with the prizes ahead of time?
The men's Ballon d'Or is decided by a group of 100 journalists, each from different countries, while the Ballon d'Or Feminin's voting roll is made up of 50 journalists from 50 different countries. We decided to replicate that voting with ESPN journalists stationed all over the world.
Here's how we did it:
Methodology:
ESPN has a global team of journalists in every corner of the globe. We asked 20 ESPN journalists from around the world -- one per country -- to submit a ballot.
We used the official Ballon d'Or shortlists.
We had each voter submit their top five for the Ballon d'Or and their top three for all other awards.
Like official awards, each first-place vote received 15 points, followed by 12 points for second, 10 points for third, eight points for fourth and six points for fifth.
So, in a global experiment, can ESPN predict the Ballon d'Or?
Jump to:
Ballon d'Or | Women's Ballon d'Or
Other awards
BALLON D'OR: PLAYERS WHO GOT 1ST-PLACE VOTES
Lamine Yamal, Barcelona, RW
What our voters said:
Josué Utrilla, ESPN Guatemala reporter: "I believe that being a world champion -- while playing a key role in Spain's attack and enjoying excellent form with Barcelona in LaLiga -- demonstrates the talent he possesses at such a young age (19) and has earned him a place among football's biggest stars."
Harry Kane, Bayern Munich, ST
What our voters said:
Tom Hamilton, ESPN UK senior writer: "Okay, he didn't win the World Cup, or the Champions League, but Kane's year is unsurpassed. He scored 73 goals in 65 matches across the England national team and Bayern. It's a freakish record, the like of which we'll never see again. Let's park sentimentality and aesthetic-influenced bias; this award rewards individual brilliance."
Thijs Zwagerman, ESPN NL reporter: "Despite scoring goals at an extraordinary rate for years, Kane still does not receive the full recognition he deserves on the international stage. His qualities extend far beyond his remarkable goal-scoring record. He possesses the rare ability for a striker to drop deep, influence the game from a deeper position and operate like a playmaker as well. While Kane has yet to win the Champions League or the World Cup, that does not diminish his individual brilliance. In my view, he was still the best player in the world on an individual level."
Lionel Messi, Inter Miami CF, FW
What our voters said:
Anirudh Menon, ESPN India editor: "If this award is to be given to the best footballer on the planet, there can only be one answer. He may be 39 years old; he may even be playing in Major League Soccer (where he did win the MLS Cup and topped almost every attacking chart in the league), but the 2026 World Cup showed just how vast the gulf between Messi and everyone else remains. When he turns it on, there isn't anyone close. Give him his ninth Ballon d'Or already."
Teo Coquet, ESPN Argentina reporter: "I choose him because of his attacking influence and ability to remain decisive on the international stage. His performance for Argentina at the World Cup is also a key factor in my evaluation. At 39 years old, he has played one of the best World Cups of his career."
Kylian Mbappé, Real Madrid, ST
What our voters said:
Omar Flores, ESPN Mexico reporter: "Mbappé was the leading scorer across every competition he played in during the 2025-26 season, topping the charts in both the UEFA Champions League and Spain's LaLiga. At the World Cup, the France star scored 10 goals and became the tournament's all-time leading scorer (22 goals). Although he was unable to help his team advance beyond the semifinals, he remains one of the leading candidates to win the Ballon d'Or. "
Carlos Valdez, ESPN Colombia reporter: "I would put Mbappé first because of his extraordinary ability to make the difference at the highest level. His pace, finishing, consistency and capacity to deliver in decisive moments make him one of the most influential players in world football. His goal-scoring achievements across the league, Champions League and World Cup further strengthen his case. For me, the Ballon d'Or should recognize not only outstanding numbers, but also a player's ability to change the course of a game, and Mbappé embodies that quality."
Fabián Ruiz, Paris Saint-Germain, CM
What our voters said:
Moises Llorens, ESPN Spain reporter: "If we forget about the cameras, the spotlights, the commercial interests, and all the pomp that increasingly accompanies the business of football, then Ruiz should win the Ballon d'Or. I have no doubt about it. Why? It's simple. He was an undisputed and fundamental player for PSG's repeated Champions League title success last season, and was equally fundamental for Luis de la Fuente's victorious Spain side at the 2026 World Cup when Pedri wasn't at his best in midfield. Ruiz won it all over the past 12 months and was a standout player. He lacks marketing appeal, which will work against him, but he would be a deserving winner."
Rodri, Barcelona, CM
What our voters said:
Jean Beausejour, ESPN Chile analyst: "In a World Cup year, winning the tournament carries enormous weight. Rodri had a tremendous influence on Spain's performances on football's biggest stage. Spain's ability to dominate matches, control the tempo and impose their style of play against different opponents was largely down to Rodri's intelligence, positioning and exceptional ability to dictate the game. His influence went far beyond individual statistics, making him, in my opinion, the most deserving candidate for the Ballon d'Or."
ESPN'S PREDICTED WINNER: HARRY KANE
In a symbol of how divisive the men's Ballon d'Or race is, Kane received half of the first-place votes but only one of the other 10 voters put him second. Perhaps the biggest surprise was the large snubbing of Yamal, who received just a single No. 1 vote.
This was a two-horse race and, as ESPN writer Bill Connelly wrote earlier this month: "Kane played eight more matches and over 600 more minutes than Yamal -- which is to say, he stayed healthier than a player 14 years his junior -- and he produced 81 combined goals and assists, a full 36 more than Yamal."
There is a slice of history on offer for Kane, too: Kane would be just the fifth Englishman to cradle the golden trophy, alongside Sir Stanley Matthews, Sir Bobby Charlton, Kevin Keegan and Michael Owen.
BALLON D'OR FEMININE: PLAYERS WHO GOT 1ST-PLACE VOTES
Alexia Putellas, London City Lionesses, AM
What our voters said:
Leonard Solms, ESPN Africa reporter: "In her final season at Barcelona, midfield maestro Putellas not only captained Barcelona to the Liga F, UEFA Women's Champions League, Copa de la Reina and Supercopa de España trophies -- but also scored 20 goals and assisted 14 in 43 games. Capable of filling multiple roles in the team, Putellas is the kind of player any manager would love to have 11 of, and her brilliance should not be taken for granted."
Marissa Lordanic, ESPN Australia editor: "Putellas was once again invaluable across multiple competitions. The epitome of a big-game player, she ensured Barcelona's trophy case continued to grow before she tested herself in a new league."
Ewa Pajor, Barcelona, ST
What our voters said:
Gustavo Hofman, ESPN Brasil reporter: "Pajor combined outstanding individual production with collective success and delivered when it mattered most. She recorded 34 goals and eight assists in 46 appearances for club and country, helping Barcelona win the Champions League, Liga F, Copa de la Reina and Spanish Super Cup. Her intelligent movement and clinical finishing gave Barcelona a cutting edge throughout the season, but her Champions League performances ultimately put her ahead of the competition: she finished as the tournament's top scorer with 11 goals and scored twice in the 4-0 victory over OL Lyonnes in the final."
Ed Dove, ESPN Africa reporter: "In recent years, Pajor's performances haven't always been rewarded with the silverware and honors one might expect. That changed last term, where she was a key influence -- and a major goal threat -- in Barcelona's historic Quadruple-winning campaign. A genuine big-game player, she scored 33 across all competitions, including 11 in the Champions League, where she struck in every knockout round Barca played in before netting twice in a one-sided final victory over OL Lyonnes. Pajor may have scored fewer than she did during his remarkable debut season at Barca, but after overcoming the UWCL final defeat by Arsenal in 2025, she deserves the individual recognition here."
Temwa Chawinga, Kansas City Current, FW
What our voters said:
Jeff Kassouf, ESPN (US) reporter: "No player changes a game like Chawinga. She can create chances on her own in one-vs.-one situations from literally inside her own half on the counter attack, and is a sharp goal scorer. Scoring 20 goals in the NWSL and then following that up with 15 the next season is dominant form at a world-class level. And she does it for club and country, having helped lowly Malawi to the 2027 World Cup. This time next year, more international opponents will know the fear of having Chawinga run at their defense."
Patri Guijarro, Barcelona, CM
What our voters said:
Moises Llorens, ESPN Spain: "The backbone of Barcelona's women's team and an excellent midfielder who makes runs from the second line. Other players usually steal the spotlight, but her talent is unquestionable. She makes the rest of the team shine."
ESPN'S PREDICTED WINNER: ALEXIA PUTELLAS
This result is not a surprise. Putellas is the clear favourite for the award, and our voters agreed.
Putellas enjoyed a dream end to her 14-year Barcelona career last season, captaining the club to a second Quadruple in three years, including lifting the Women's Champions League, before she moved to captain London City Lionesses, who are now third in the Women's Super League after five games.
Should Putellas actually win, she would earn her third Ballon d'Or award, joining former Barcelona teammate Aitana Bonmatí as its most frequent recipient.
OTHER AWARDS
Men's young player of the year award (Kepa Trophy)
1. Lamine Yamal (Barcelona, Spain)
2. Pau Cubarsí (Barcelona, Spain)
3. Yan Diomandé (Real Madrid, Ivory Coast)
Women's young player of the year
1. Vicky López (Barcelona, Spain)
2. Lily Yohannes (OL Lyonnes, U.S.)
3. Felicia Schröder (Real Madrid, Sweden)
Men's goalkeeper of the year
1. Unai Simón (Athletic Club, Spain)
2. David Raya (Arsenal, Spain)
3. Joan García (Barcelona, Spain)
Women's goalkeeper of the year
1. Cata Coll (Barcelona, Spain)
2. Hannah Hampton (Chelsea, England)
T3. Ann-Katrin Berger (Gotham FC, Germany)
T3. Ayaka Yamashita (Manchester City, Japan)
Men's coach of the year
1. Luis de la Fuente (Spain)
2. Luis Enrique (PSG)
3. Mikel Arteta (Arsenal)
Women's coach of the year
1. Pere Romeu (Barcelona)
2. Jonatan Giráldez (OL Lyonnes)
3. Andree Jeglertz (Manchester City)
Men's club of the year
1. Paris Saint-Germain
2. Arsenal
3. Bayern Munich
Women's club of the year
1. Barcelona
2. OL Lyonnes
3. Manchester City
