There are plenty of talking points after Round 7 of the AFL, including just how serious the up-and-about Hawks should be taken and whether the end of the road has come for Cats superstar Patrick Dangerfield.
Let's get to this week's overreactions column, where we judge the biggest takeaways as legitimate or irrational.
The Hawks deserve to be premiership favourites
After dropping their opening game of the season to GWS, the Hawks have been on a rampant run, climbing to third on the ladder courtesy of six consecutive wins. Bookmakers now have Hawthorn as the third most likely club to win this year's premiership, but should they be a rung or two higher?
Verdict: Not an overreaction
The Hawks bounced back from that season-opening loss to the Giants with a rout of Essendon (big whoop!), but have then accounted for a host of teams many believe to be in the premiership mix. Wins over the Swans, Cats, Bulldogs, and Suns have allowed Sam Mitchell's side to rocket up the ladder.
Granted, you can make a strong case for back-to-back champion Brisbane deserving flag favouritism. Some will even lobby for the rejuvenated Swans. But these Hawks have something neither of those sides have: the MCG advantage.
There's a real argument to be made that the team most likely to win the flag is the highest-ranked Victorian side. Right now, that clearly looks like Hawthorn. And if they can lock in a top four spot (yes, we know there's a long way to go), the MCG advantage becomes enormous.
Even if they drop a qualifying final, they'd still earn a home semifinal the following week at the MCG in a season where many of the other contenders are interstate sides. And if they make it all the way to the Grand Final? Whether they're technically the 'home' side or not, they'd still walk in with the home team advantage, familiarity, routine, and crowd support mostly on their side.
In a competition decided by fine margins, that MCG factor is real, whether people like to admit it or not.
-- Jake Michaels
The end has come for Patrick Dangerfield
Geelong superstar Patrick Dangerfield might have had the worst outing of his 363-game career on Saturday night. The 36-year-old veteran tallied just four disposals and failed to have either a clearance or inside 50 in his side's shock loss to Port Adelaide.
Verdict: Overreaction
Do not be sucked in. Do not be fooled. And, most importantly, do not overreact!
Dangerfield had an off night. So what? It happens. Even all-time greats aren't immune to a stinker every now and again. But is this a sign that the end has come for 'Danger'? Absolutely not.
Just four games earlier, Dangerfield produced one of the greatest performances of his illustrious career to take down the Hawks in a preliminary final and guide Geelong into another Grand Final. 31 disposals. 20 contested possessions. Three goals. A truly masterful display. Even last week, in a win over the Bulldogs, Dangerfield had 19 disposals, took five marks inside 50, and kicked two goals. On a more accurate day he could easily have finished with four or five snags.
Would anyone really be surprised if he bounced back this week against the Kangaroos with a best-on-ground, narrative shifting type outing? We certainly wouldn't be. We say all of that to say this: be very cautious with writing off all-time champions.
-- Jake Michaels
