We're now at the halfway point of the 2026 AFL season. Who are the flag favourites? Who are the legitimate contenders? And who should already be booking September holidays? Jake Michaels has ranked each club in his June edition of tiers.
Note: ESPN's AFL tiers will be a monthly column throughout the 2026 season.
Extending the gap
1. FREMANTLE
2. SYDNEY
3. GEELONG
4. HAWTHORN
The more of the season we play, the more it feels as if this year's premiership is a race in four. Each of these teams have showcased their flag credentials through the first half of the year and are, unsurprisingly, the four favourites among bookmakers. At this point, it would almost be a shock if the premiership went to anyone else. The Dockers have won a club record 11 straight games to sit top of the ladder, the Swans have won nine of their last 10, and the Cats and Hawks remain the two best clubs in Victoria ... whether fair or not, you can't discount the importance of that when attempting to forecast the premier.
Reputation doing some heavy lifting
5. BRISBANE
If these Lions weren't the back-to-back reigning premier, there's no way they'd be ranking this high after arguably its worst three weeks of the Chris Fagan era. But news flash, they are! We simply have to give Brisbane the respect it's built over the last 36 months, knowing full well they could welcome back reinforcements and hit top gear at any moment. Despite the underwhelming campaign to date, the Lions still have the personnel, the experience, and the quality to steady the ship in the back half of the season and make some serious noise in finals.
Not what I expected three months ago
6. GOLD COAST
7. MELBOURNE
8. WESTERN BULLDOGS
Hands up who thought Max Gawn and Christian Petracca would have both played in the same amount of wins after 12 rounds? The Suns began the year looking every bit like the team that had been widely tipped to contend for this year's flag, but there's now a real worry. Sure, a 6-0 record at home is great, but 1-4 on the road is a major concern. The Demons, meanwhile, have been the biggest surprise packet of the season to date. Under new coach Steven King, Melbourne's playing arguably the most watchable brand of footy in the competition, already matching its win tally from a year ago. Forget the wildcard spots, there's a chance this club finishes the home and away year in the top six. And then there's the Bulldogs. It's been a total rollercoaster ride with this mob in 2026, and a percentage of just 93.7 after 12 games is very unBulldogs-like. Strange.
Exactly what I expected three months ago
9. ADELAIDE
10. COLLINGWOOD
11. GWS
12. ST KILDA
Rewind to the beginning of the year and you'll recall me making a few grand claims. First, with a far tougher fixture and a target on the back, the Crows were set to take a bit of a tumble. Second, the ageing Magpies were closer than we thought to the cliff and could be a sneaky top 10 absentee. And third, the Saints would be the year's most underwhelming team. Okay, the Bombers probably edge them just a touch there! Still, so far the production of these three clubs has matched my pre-season expectations to a tee. I've added the Giants to this group, as well. I was reasonably bullish on this club at the beginning of the year, and just when I was starting to lose all hope, they finally look to have clicked into gear. I'll claim it!
Sneaky car salesmen
13. CARLTON
14. NORTH MELBOURNE
15. WEST COAST
16. PORT ADELAIDE
One minute they're up, the next they're down. You just cannot trust these four teams. The Blues began the year 1-8, sacked Michael Voss, and have now won three on the trot. Who knows what they'll dish up for the rest of the season? The Kangaroos looked to have turned a corner at the beginning of the year, but if not for Cam Zurhaar's heroics last start they would be riding a five game losing streak. The Eagles have won four games, but also lost twice by margins over 100 points. The Power is the only one of the group that hasn't won back-to-back games in 2026.
Should be off primetime TV until 2028
17. RICHMOND
18. ESSENDON
A week and a half ago these two cellar dwellers squared off in the annual Dreamtime at the 'G game ... in the primetime Friday night window. Yeah, not sure either deserve to play in a marquee slot for a while. The Tigers are 2-10 and have lost six times this year by a margin of at least 54 points. The Bombers have won just one game from their past 25, sacked coach Brad Scott, and seem destined to collect this year's wooden spoon.
