Eight teams left, eight chances to win an AFL premiership. Well, ostensibly perhaps. Like in George Orwell's "Animal Farm", we all know "some are more equal than others". And in this version, it's about both institutionalised disadvantage, and more simply, about quality.
Two teams -- Western Bulldogs and Carlton -- will have to win a historic five games to take out the flag thanks to the new Wildcard system. The top four, meanwhile, could play just three.
Perhaps too much rest could claim them, though, as has happened to a disproportionate number of qualifying final winners in preliminary finals since the introduction of the pre-finals bye in 2016.
Systems, numbers, percentages, any minuscule advantage -- they're all a massive part of finals calculations. So we thought we'd estimate your team's premiership chance expressed as a percentage. Don't like it? Don't call us. Take out your calculator and have a crack yourself.
Brisbane: 35%
There are eerie similarities between these Lions, shooting for a third flag in a row, and those of 20-plus years ago, who famously did just that, not least their capacity to peak at the perfect moment. Brisbane was 6-6 and in ninth spot after 12 games; they've since won 10 of their last 11, the last four by an average of 10 goals, and are two wins from a grand final spot. Even a qualifying final loss on the SCG to the Swans wouldn't faze them unduly, both their flags have been won playing every week of September. Brisbane has the most talented list, no injury concerns, knows exactly what needs to be done, and has done it, with plenty to spare twice already. The Lions have to be seen as the best premiership chance right now.
Fremantle: 32%
It's been some sort of season for the Dockers, who've only dropped four games, and two of those relatively meaningless after having sewn up top spot. They now have the perfect pathway for a Perth team - two Optus Stadium finals (where they've won all 12 games this year) en route to grand final day. Never underestimate, though, the challenges for WA teams in winning big games at the still relatively unfamiliar surrounds of the MCG, a venue at which Freo plays on average just two games a season, and at which their recent record is 2-3. They're good enough, of course, they've proved that. But against more seasoned finals campaigners, they're going to need to be.
Hawthorn: 10%
A big premiership probability drop to the next most likely chance. Why? Well, winning a final in Perth is tough, the Hawks' recent form has been less than stellar, and indeed Carlton is the only decent side they've beaten in the second half of the season. That said, another against-the-odds Perth final win (they've done it twice before and demolished West Coast there last start) would land them in an MCG preliminary final. They're also in great shape on the availability front, Conor Nash the only first-choice player unavailable, and Will Day finally ready to take part in a big finals campaign. Will take some doing, but you wouldn't say they couldn't.
Geelong: 8%
The Cats were in strife three-quarters of the way through the season after five losses in six games. Of course, as they have so often, they found a way through, winning their last six. They're solid everywhere, too, ranked No.1 for defence, third for attack, and are the undisputed best territory team in the competition. The experience factor goes without saying, this being Geelong's 14th finals campaign in 16 years under Chris Scott. Even injuries might be coming into line, star midfielder Max Holmes an outside chance to play against the Blues this week. One concern, perhaps, is their early finals draw, the Cats having lost three of their last four against Carlton, and to both Fremantle and Hawthorn, their potential semifinal opponents.
Sydney: 6%
Obviously, this rating would have been considerably higher had it not been for the events at the Pullman Hotel, and the suspensions of five players, including three of the Swans' best half-dozen in Isaac Heeney, Chad Warner and Nick Blakey. The disgrace has cost Sydney class in all parts of the ground, possession power and scoring potency, Heeney and Warner having contributed more than 60 goals between them this season. The AFL's highest-scoring team does still have Coleman medallist Charlie Curnow and Logan McDonald, though, who have booted more than 100. The form of Errol Gulden and potential return of midfielder Justin McInerney will be critical. Two home finals, where the Swans have won 10 of their last 11 and beat Brisbane early this season, doesn't hurt, either.
Adelaide: 4%
There's plenty of heat on the Crows and coach Matthew Nicks already after last year's disastrous straight sets exit at home after having finished on top of the ladder. A 15-8 record this season isn't shabby, of course, and Adelaide is strong defensively and in contested ball, two finals staples. But the home finals advantage doesn't weigh as heavily, given last September and the fact four of the Crows' eight losses this year have come at home. One big plus will be the very in-form Izak Rankine, suspended last year, skipper Jordan Dawson has been superb all season, and Taylor Walker's impending retirement might provide an emotional boost, too, but a flag won with the last three legs won on the road would be a huge effort.
Carlton: 3%
I know, I know, given that the Blues have won 12-and-a-half of their last 15 games, the best form line in the competition, three per cent seems harsh indeed. But there's several things to take into consideration. Pathway is perhaps the most important. We're talking about history, here. No side previously has won five white-hot finals to land a premiership. Indeed, only North Melbourne (in 1977) has played five to do it, and that included a loss and a draw. And yes, the Blues have a good record against Geelong, but win this week and it's either a trip to Perth to play the Dockers or an MCG clash with Hawthorn, who've beaten them -- comfortably -- on the past four occasions. Win that, and it's a preliminary final in either Brisbane or Sydney. To say that's a big ask is an understatement.
Western Bulldogs: 2%
Sneaking into eighth spot then surviving a post-siren kick against the ninth-placed team isn't a great CV when you're chasing a premiership. Nor is a record of 3-8 and a draw against your final eight opponents. Nor a dismal ranking of 14th offensively and a mediocre ninth defensively. Nor the likely absence this week of key midfielder Tom Liberatore and confirmed absence of another in Matt Kennedy. Then having to win in Adelaide followed by either Sydney or Brisbane just to get to a preliminary final. Needless to say the Dogs will need their biggest guns, namely Marcus Bontempelli, Ed Richards, Aaron Naughton, Tim English and Bailey Dale, to produce their absolute best and then some if the Dogs are to pull out a premiership miracle.
You can read more of Rohan Connolly's work at FOOTYOLOGY.
