The PGA heads to TPC Deere Run for the John Deere Classic. There are scoring opportunities everywhere but only if you hit the fairway and control your irons. I'm looking for players that can attack the pins and make some putts.
From the course architecture, the players who contend are extremely solid with their irons, give themselves plenty of birdie looks (-15 is the floor), can overwhelm on par 5s and keep it in play off the tee. This is a putting contest disguised as an approach course. You need irons to create chances but if you don't get hot with the putter, somebody else will shoot a 64.
Here are the players I like to contend for a win this week.
Odds by DK Sports
(with ties) and subject to change.
Best bets
Top 20 -135
To win +1325
His current form is simply undeniable. Over his last six starts, he finished third at the Cadillac, third at Colonial, top 10 in Travelers and top 20 in both PGA Championship and the U.S. Open. That's great golf in strong fields. Griffin checks the most important box at TPC Deere Run: approach play. He's 16th with his irons and 19th in opportunities gained, which means he's giving himself plenty of looks at birdie. However, his profile doesn't exactly scream birdie fest, as he's 67th in birdie or better percentage and barely inside the top 75 on par 5s. But his form, gaining loads consistently with the putter, outweighs the concern. His form is there ... it's a matter of whether it's enough to win because a top 20 finish feels like the floor.
Top 20 +215
To win +5700
This is my dart of the week. If I'm trying to figure out who can make at least seven birdies in a round and suddenly be leading into the weekend, it's Brown. He's third in birdie or better, third and top-5 scoring, first in opportunities gained, and inside the top 30 in driving accuracy. Basically, he makes a ton of birdies, destroys par 5s, gives himself plenty of good looks at birdie putts, and drives it well enough to take advantage of a course like TPC Deere Run. His odds are generous because he's never played on tour here. But his best performances have been on courses that reward aggressive scoring, like T14 at TPC Craig Ranch gaining over five strokes with his irons and nearly eight ballstriking. The inexperience could come into play and there is volatility, as he lost six strokes with his irons at PGA National but has gained in three straight starts. I like the price for a calculated play, and I see upside.
Other bets and DFS advice
Play: Eric Cole $9,100
Cole may have one of the best data sets in the entire field. He's ninth in weighted strokes gained approach, third in birdie or better percentage, and top 20 in par-5 scoring, bentgrass putting, and opportunities gained. If we were designing a Deere Run player from scratch, I'd probably end up with something pretty close to Cole. His recent form supports the data, too, finishing runner-up at Colonial, and top 10 both at Myrtle Beach and Memorial.
Why am I okay with DFS and not betting? The concern is his driver, which is outside the top 100 in both accuracy and fairways gained. His upside works with fantasy, but for stability in wagering, I can't fully get there. If you're looking for someone who can get to 20-under on a spike week, Cole has the capability.
Play: Tom Kim $8,700
This is a flyer of a pick. He can either win or miss the cut. It's that exact ceiling that makes him a good fantasy play, the volatility. The case for Kim is his recent iron play, which is fifth on approach and gaining loads in events like Myrtle Beach, the Canadian Open and the U.S. Open, where he finished third place. When his irons are hot, he's capable of winning.
The volatile part? Deere run isn't just about irons. You have to make birdies, attack par 5s and take advantage of chances. Kim is 68th in birdies and 110th in par-5 scoring. He also missed the cut here last year, losing almost five strokes off the tee. He's 84th in accuracy so it checks out. So why play him this week? He's had five straight starts unleashing his irons, gaining strokes putting in four. He's cheap enough to see if momentum follows.
Fade: Keith Mitchell $10,000
He looks like a perfect fit on paper for this tournament. Mitchell is 12th in iron play, fourth in birdie rate and top 5 in par-5 scoring. That's almost exactly the data fit you want for this week. The issue is Mitchell's putting tends to determine everything. He's 97th in putting on bentgrass. In multiple starts on this course, he's lost strokes almost every time on the greens. What's the use of striping it for four days if you can't convert enough birdie opportunities? The talent and fit is there. The question is simply whether the putter cooperates. History says it won't.
