The conference media days are fast approaching, and that means the unofficial kickoff to the college football season (finally). In the meantime, we're taking a look at the reasons why each league team will or won't reach a specific goal in 2016.
Next up is Wisconsin. For many teams in this series, we examine why a program will or won't make a bowl game. But we've reached a place with Wisconsin's program where it seems almost silly to make such a case. Wisconsin has reached 14 consecutive bowl games, which is tied for the sixth-longest streak in the country. So, for the purpose of this exercise, we upped the ante to double-digit wins.
Wisconsin is coming off its second straight double-digit win season (under two different head coaches) and has won at least 10 games in seven of the past 11 seasons (under four different head coaches). That's pretty darn impressive. I'll be the first to admit I think the Badgers will struggle to reach 10 wins given the insanely difficult schedule -- more on that in a bit. But here's the case for both sides of the argument.
Why Wisconsin will win double-digit games in 2016:
The defense is still really good: Defensive coordinator Dave Aranda is gone, as are three key starters in the secondary and the Big Ten linebacker of the year. Those circumstances might be too much to overcome for most teams. But Wisconsin's front seven is loaded, particularly at the linebacker spots. Third-team all-Big Ten pick Vince Biegel returns for his senior season at outside linebacker, and he'll be a monster to handle. Pro Football Focus rated Biegel as the No. 1 returning 3-4 outside linebacker in the country for his ability "against the run, as a pass-rusher and overall." He'll pair with emerging star T.J. Watt on the outside. There are three players vying for two starting spots inside -- Chris Orr, T.J. Edwards and Jack Cichy -- and all three are high-impact performers. Cornerback Sojourn Shelton leads the secondary, and he'll need help from several players stepping into starting roles for the first time. However, the Badgers ought to be a top-20 defense, and new defensive coordinator Justin Wilcox has the experience and confidence to mold a successful unit.
A strong offensive line and rushing attack: For years, Wisconsin's bread and butter has been a beastly offensive line and a punishing run game. That didn't happen last year for a number of reasons. Tailback Corey Clement missed most of the season with a sports hernia injury, four redshirt freshmen had to start on the offensive line and the Badgers failed to produce a 1,000-yard rusher for the first time in 11 years. But Clement is back at full strength, and now he'll have backfield help from Dare Ogunbowale and Taiwan Deal. Both players saw their workloads increase last season in Clement's absence, which only makes the unit stronger. A more experienced offensive line has generated quite a bit of buzz that Wisconsin can return to its mauling ways. By maintaining ball possession and wearing down opponents in the trenches, the Badgers can give themselves a chance to win every game.
Why Wisconsin won't win double-digit games in 2016:
Quarterback play: While some Badgers fans likely are relieved to see a new signal-caller take over this year after Joel Stave's four-year run, there is no guarantee the next quarterback will be markedly better. The two main candidates for the job, fifth-year senior Bart Houston and redshirt freshman Alex Hornibrook, have yet to separate themselves from each other. Houston has more experience, but he's been inconsistent with some of his throws. Hornibrook has more upside, but he's never played in a college game, and there are questions about his arm strength. To expect either of those players to truly excel as first-time starters against the defenses they'll face in 2016 could be a stretch. The other issue at Wisconsin -- as has been the case in recent years -- is the lack of enough go-to wide receiver threats. Rob Wheelwright will step into the No. 1 role, and the hope is he'll pair nicely with Jazz Peavy. Maybe George Rushing is a third option, but he caught only one pass last year and still must prove himself.
The schedule: This is the No. 1 reason it's difficult to get behind Wisconsin winning 10 games, and it's been a topic of conversation for months. Wisconsin will play what is quite possibly the most difficult schedule in program history, and that's no hyperbole. Wisconsin opens the season against LSU, which is a presumed top-10 team with national title aspirations. Perhaps Wisconsin could win that game at Lambeau Field in Green Bay, but it would take a massive effort -- and be the Badgers' most significant nonconference regular-season win since a victory against No. 4 Nebraska back in 1974. The real trouble lies at the start of Big Ten play, as Wisconsin opens at Michigan State, at Michigan, home against Ohio State, at Iowa, home against Nebraska and at Northwestern. By the time that stretch is through, the Badgers very well could have four losses, ending any chance at a 10-win campaign. Five of those six teams won at least 10 games just last season. Wisconsin may be as good of a team as it was a year ago. But without the benefit of last year's schedule, it could be a long season.
