We’ve nearly reached the midpoint of the regular season, so we decided to take a closer look at the numbers to see just how this season’s shaping up for the Big Ten’s quarterbacks.
Who’s the best against the blitz? Who throws the prettiest deep ball? And who’s gone from best to worst when it comes to fourth-quarter performance? With the help of ESPN Stats & Information, we looked beyond everyday stats like passing yards and touchdowns to bring you inside the numbers.
Granted, the statistics aren’t perfect here. Variables like opponent difficulty and smaller sample sizes aren’t taken into account, so some numbers might appear inflated or deflated. But this still serves as a unique look at who’s most effective on paper:
Who’s the Big Ten’s best/worst QB in the face of the blitz?
Highest QBR: Minnesota QB Mitch Leidner (85.0)
It’s not even close; Leidner is nearly 20 points ahead of everyone else. When teams blitz him, he’s completing 58.5 percent of his passes for 281 yards, three TDs and no interceptions. He hasn’t once been sacked. But when teams don’t blitz him? Unlike every other B1G quarterback, he’s actually been much worse. Without the blitz, he has a 44.5 QBR with two TDs, four interceptions and a lower completion rate. He’s better with the pressure. Iowa blitzed him just twice.
Most accurate: Ohio State QB J.T. Barrett (65.5 percent)
For those who aren’t fans of QBR, Barrett also leads the B1G in passer efficiency (173.0) when facing the blitz. When teams rush him, he’s 19-of-29 for 214 yards, four TDs and no interceptions. The 58-0 drubbing of Rutgers didn’t even really factor into Barrett’s success, either. Rutgers blitzed Barrett just once.
At the bottom: QBR – Indiana QB Richard Lagow (15.5); Accuracy – Rutgers QB Chris Laviano (32.4 percent)
No Big Ten quarterback has faced the blitz less than Lagow, who has been blitzed 27 times. But he hasn’t really shined there. He’s currently 11-of-23 against the blitz with two TDs and one interception. But based on completion percentage, Laviano is – by far – the worst in this category. Purdue’s David Blough is the next worst with a 45 percent completion rate.
Who throws the best/worst deep ball (20-plus yards in the air)?
Highest QBR: Penn State QB Trace McSorley (97.2)
Only seven Power 5 quarterbacks have attempted more deep balls than McSorley, as he’s gone 13-of-33 for 600 yards, four TDs and two picks on passes that traveled at least 20 yards in the air. It’s also important to note that his 39.4 percent completion rate may seem low, but it’s still higher than the Power 5 average of 34.4 percent. Somewhat ironically, McSorley didn’t have a reputation for a big arm. His predecessor, Christian Hackenberg, did. But Hackenberg finished the 2015 season with an 89.7 QBR on such passes and a 33.9 percent completion rate.
Most accurate: Minnesota QB Mitch Leidner (50 percent)
Leidner makes yet another appearance, with Barrett trailing him at 45 percent. But Leidner does have a small sample size – he’s currently 7-of-14 with one TD and no turnovers – and three of those completions came against Indiana State. In other words, there’s a good chance Leidner won’t hold this spot. Barrett hasn’t exactly been tested with great defenses, either, but no other B1G signal-callers have completed over 40 percent of their long passes.
At the bottom: QBR – Purdue QB David Blough (14.1) ; Accuracy – Michigan QB Wilton Speight (16.7 percent)
Blough has thrown more interceptions (5) than any other Big Ten QB on such passes, as he’s gone 6-of-28. Essentially, it’s either a turnover or a touchdown. He also has four TD strikes. As far as accuracy, Speight is a B1G-worst 3-of-18 on such passes – although he’s in the middle, or near the top, of most other statistical categories.
Who’s the best/worst in the fourth quarter?
Highest QBR: Nebraska QB Tommy Armstrong (95.0)
There can’t be too much argument here because Armstrong also leads the conference in passer efficiency (212.7) in the final quarter. In fact, he has the fifth-highest QBR in the nation and the second-highest passer efficiency. (Only Western Michigan’s Zach Terrell is better at the latter.) Armstrong is 14-of-21 for 208 yards, four TDs and no interceptions in the fourth quarter. He also has 91 rushing yards and two rushing TDs.
Most accurate: Michigan QB Wilton Speight (75 percent)
He hasn’t taken many shots downfield, but he hasn’t really needed to in the fourth quarter, either. All but three of his completions – he was 12-of-16 in the fourth – came within 6 yards of the line of scrimmage. Against Wisconsin, he was 4-of-5 with a 46-yard pass to Amara Darboh. He threw it downfield 39 yards.
At the bottom: QBR – Iowa QB C.J. Beathard (13.5); Accuracy – Illinois QB Wes Lunt (40.7 percent)
Beathard’s performance in the final quarter couldn’t be more different. Last season, he was the Big Ten’s best QB in this situation with a QBR of 88.1 and six TDs to no interceptions. He’s literally gone from the best to the worst. He’s thrown no touchdowns in the fourth quarter this season but has tossed two interceptions and been sacked a B1G-worst four times. (He fumbled once.) Lunt hasn’t fared much better. He has a 22.2 QBR and only three of his 11 fourth-quarter completions have gone for first downs. Maryland QB Perry Hills did not qualify here as he’s currently 1-of-5 this season.
