As the Boston Celtics continue their future-minded roster overhaul, the past two games likely served as a good indication of how the rest of the 2014-15 season will play out: Boston will be competitive for stretches, young players will get extended opportunities to develop, and the team will struggle to win against quality competition.
The shorthanded Celtics, playing their third road game in four nights on Saturday in Toronto, produced 20 solid minutes early, then the Atlantic Division-leading Raptors showed the disparity between the two teams over the final 28 minutes while emerging with a 109-96 triumph at the Air Canada Centre.
As Celtics fans watch their team auction off all remaining veteran talent to contenders in exchange for future assets, the lingering question is how long will it take Boston to return to contender status and what does Boston plan to do with all these picks?
Even the casual fan knows now that Danny Ainge's pockets are overflowing with future draft picks, but given the conditional nature of those selections, it's hard to get a gauge on how they might help the Celtics accelerate through the rebuilding process.
So as the Celtics work to complete a three-team trade that will deliver Jeff Green to Memphis and bring back another future first-round pick, and while acknowledging that more moves likely loom before the Feb. 19 trade deadline, let's take a step back and examine where Boston's picks might fall and how they might be utilized.
BOSTON'S PILE O' PICKS
A look at Boston's future draft picks (conditions explained below):
2015 draft
1st round: Boston, Clippers, Dallas1, Minnesota2, Philadelphia3
2nd round: Boston4, Philadelphia5, Washington6
2016 draft
1st round: Boston, Brooklyn, Minnesota2, Cleveland7, Dallas1
2nd round: Philadelphia5, Minnesota2, Miami, Cleveland, Dallas8
2017 draft
1st round: Boston9
2nd round: Boston9, Cleveland, Minnesota2
2018 draft
1st round: Boston, Brooklyn
2nd round: Boston
2019 draft (and beyond)10
1st round: Boston
2nd round: Boston
First some quick links to recent entries that detail where Celtics stand at the moment and the picks they own (the selections are also detailed in the sidebar to the right).
Trade reset: Picking their path | Boston's picks
WHAT PICKS WILL BOSTON ACTUALLY SEE THE NEXT COUPLE YEARS?
The Celtics stand to own as many as 14 total picks over the next two drafts, including what will likely be six first-round picks. It starts with two firsts next year -- the Celtics and the Los Angeles Clippers -- then grows to what will likely be four first-rounders in 2016 with picks belonging to the Celtics, Nets, Cavaliers, and Mavericks.
Don't forget the swarm of second-round picks that Boston has in those two upcoming drafts. While some will quibble that the conditional picks received from Philadelphia (via Miami) and Minnesota (via Phoenix) are likely to morph from first-rounders to a pair of second-round picks, it's worth remembering that those picks all have potential to be in the early 30s of the second round.
Utilizing the standings after Boston's loss to the Raptors on Saturday night, here's a glimpse at where the Celtics might be picking in next year's draft:
2015 potential picks: Nos. 7, 21, 33, 37, 57.
Keep in mind that Boston is slotted at No. 7 with its own pick because that's where it stands at the moment. But remember that ignores the potential for a lottery vault to the top 3. What's more, a daunting upcoming schedule could drag Boston lower in the lottery standings, which would mean mean more ping-pong balls in May.
The talent-packed Western Conference should keep the Clippers' pick in the low 20s. Boston also stands to collect an early second-rounder from the 76ers, along with its own early second-round selection. Add in a late second-round pick from Washington (if the Wizards remain near the top of the league standings) and Boston -- at the moment -- is pegged for five selections in June.
It's a lot more challenging to project the picks for the 2016 draft, but let's assume there's little change in the standings for the sake of this exercise.
2016 potential picks: Nos. 10, 15, 26, 28, 32, 35, 42, 56, 58.
That's a lot of picks, especially with potential for six in top 35 spots.
For the sake of the exercise, we put Boston towards the back of the lottery pack and Brooklyn as a final playoff team. Those two spots in particular could change by the end of the 2016 season.
Regardless, Boston is going to have access to a lot of picks. What can they do with them?
THE CHANCE TO MOVE UP
Some have lamented the value of second-round picks, noting how many of those selections simply get sold each year for cash. And for every hidden gem that emerges from the second round of a draft, there's a handful of players that never even appear on an NBA court.
But second-round picks can be particularly useful in maneuvering around the draft board. The best example of this is the 2013 draft when Boston shuffled up three spots to secure Kelly Olynyk at No. 13.
As part of that trade with Dallas, Boston delivered a pair of 2014 second-round draft picks that went on to be Cleanthony Early (No. 34) and Russ Smith (No. 47). With their abundance of picks, Boston doesn't have to worry quite as much about where it's slotted to pick because it can shimmy up a bit if the team locks in on a player that might go sooner.
TAKING THEIR SWINGS
In the aftermath of the trade that delivered Rondo to Dallas, Ainge noted that the Celtics are unlikely to use all of their acquired picks, but that having "swings of the bat" is critical to draft success.
Ainge has proven to be a solid judge of talent in the latter part of the first round and early second. As the Celtics roster fills up moving forward, the team must decide which picks are most valuable to use as a team and the abundance of picks allows them to roll the dice with a bit more confidence than other teams that have less rolls.
TRADING THE PICKS
Maybe the biggest lament we've heard is that most of Boston's acquired picks are likely to fall in the tail end of the first round or early second round, seemingly diminishing their value. But keep in mind that, particularly in a league where salary cap management is crucial to long-term success, draft picks are valuable regardless of where exactly they fall.
What's more, Boston has set the market for first-round picks with its recent activity. In its most recent moves, the Celtics dealt away impact players like Rondo and Green for what will likely be late first-round picks. That means that, as Boston stats its own climb back towards being a contender, it will have the ability to engage other rebuilding squads about obtaining their star talent at a similar price. In fact, those same picks might eventually be used to replace the likes of Green and Rondo with established talent.
FINAL THOUGHTS
Ultimately, Celtics fans have to lean on the old "In Danny We Trust" idiom and hope that Boston maximizes these picks moving forward. While it's hard to get excited about draft picks and trade exceptions as the Celtics trade away their best individual players, it's important to recognize how these assets could help Boston rebuild and maintain that success moving forward.
But Ainge is only adding pressure on himself with every move. Each pick will be be revisited to examine how Boston obtained it and what it turned into. Ainge is heavy in gather mode right now, but the team will soon have to show the fruits of that labor.
1. [Dallas’ pick is protected selections 1-3 and 15-30 in 2015; protected 1-7 from 2016-2020; unprotected 2021]↑
2. [Minnesota’s pick (via the Suns) is protected 1-12 in 2015 and 2016; becomes 2016 and 2017 second-round picks]↑
3. [Philadelphia’s pick is lottery protected selections 1-14]↑
4. [Boston’s pick is conveyed to Cleveland if between selections 56-60]↑
5. [Philadelphia's pick is conveyed if first-round pick is in lottery]↑
6. [Washington’s pick is protected selections 31-49]↑
7. [Cleveland’s pick is top-10 protected until 2019]↑
8. [Better of Dallas/Memphis second-round pick]↑
9. [Boston has option to swap first-round pick with Brooklyn; second-round pick to Nets if swapped and 45+]↑
10. [If all outstanding picks are previously delivered]↑
