A Chicago Cubs fan is always looking for what's going to go wrong. Can you blame them? When it has been 107 years since your team's last championship, you tend to think negatively. With that in mind, it can be a much easier exercise in finding reasons why the Cubs will not go all the way.
But this isn't any normal Cubs team. When a team wins 97 games with three rookies in the starting lineup, and a few more on the bench, something unusual is happening. Can the talent that got them here carry over to the postseason, or will their youth catch up with them?
Here are five reasons why the Cubs will advance far into the postseason and five more why it'll be an early exit.
FIVE REASONS THE CUBS CAN GO ALL THE WAY
1. Top of the rotation: Jon Lester has the playoff experience, Jake Arrieta has the stuff. The Cubs' one-two combination is arguably the best this side of Zack Greinke and Clayton Kershaw, and it can take the team far. Both Lester and Arrieta are horses who reached 200 innings on the season with neither missing a start.
You might already know of Arrieta’s second-half exploits, but Lester’s 0.96 WHIP was good for seventh in the league, and he boasts a 27-13 September and October regular-season record for his career along with a 2.57 postseason ERA. It might be Arrieta’s first turn at October baseball, but it’s hard to imagine his devastating array of pitches not keeping the Cubs in games, if not completely shutting down the opponent.
2. Depth: The Cubs have tons of it. When an opposing manager goes to his bullpen, Joe Maddon can bring in a slew of players who could be starting for most teams. If a righty is on the hill to start the game, Maddon usually has Jorge Soler, Chris Denorfia and Javier Baez ready to go off the bench. If a lefty starts, then Chris Coghlan and possibly Kyle Schwarber or Baez can pinch hit or be double-switched in. And then there is Tommy La Stella, who provides a good at-bat no matter who’s pitching.
If the game is tight or goes into extra innings, it’s a big advantage for the Cubs and presents matchup nightmares for the opposition. It’s one reason why the Cubs were dominant in September and October. A rotating lineup kept everyone fresh, and it means they’re fresh for the postseason as well.
3. Weatherproof offense: The Cubs led the league in walks, which could bode well for a postseason that could see cold weather as a factor in Chicago, Pittsburgh, St. Louis and New York. They also saw the most pitches per plate appearance, meaning elevated pitch counts for the opposition. In tight games, these little advantages should tip the Cubs' way. Getting a starter out one inning earlier than normal can be the difference between facing the opposition’s best relievers or a bridge pitcher who’s more likely to throw some good pitches to hit.
4. Tight games: Even though the Cardinals and Pirates had better bullpen ERAs, the Cubs were as good as anyone in close games. They compiled a 34-21 record in one-run affairs and a 13-5 mark in extra innings. It has some meaning as one of the youngest teams in the league never got tight in a big moment, especially late in games. The Cubs believe experience will pay off this month as close games in the playoffs tend to be the norm. This was part of the equation that led to September road success in Pittsburgh and St. Louis, too.
5. Starlin Castro: Yes, the once-benched infielder is a key player for the Cubs because of where he hits in the lineup. Maddon likes batting Castro fifth, behind Kris Bryant and Anthony Rizzo, because Castro makes contact and is the least likely to strike out among the team's regulars. If the two sluggers ahead of him are going to be pitched around, then Castro will get his RBI opportunities and he’ll need to come through. The league’s leading hitter in September is a key cog in the middle of the Cubs' lineup.
FIVE REASONS THE CUBS CAN'T GO ALL THE WAY
1. Back end of rotation: Sometimes winning can mask some issues, as it’s possible the final week or so of the regular season gave some false hope here. It wasn’t that long ago when people were wondering who would start a playoff game after Arrieta and Lester. And it even got to the point that Maddon talked of simply pitching several relievers to get through a playoff game, but that isn’t likely.
Jason Hammel, Kyle Hendricks and Dan Haren all pitched well down the stretch after struggling in the second half, but the Milwaukee Brewers and Cincinnati Reds weren’t putting up much of a fight in the final month. Someone besides Arrieta and Lester needs to step up.
2. Strikeouts: K's can kill any small-ball attack, and the Cubs led baseball by a wide margin with 1,518 whiffs in the regular season. Eighty-four strikeouts came with a man on third and less than two outs, also tops in baseball. Striking out is part of their DNA, but it wasn’t a major issue in the regular season because the Cubs were hitting home runs, especially in the second half. If the long ball disappears, they’ll need more timely contact. That was an issue once the weather started to change.
3. Bullpen breakdown: The Cubs' bullpen is good, but it doesn’t have nearly the experience of other playoff teams. Can former Rule 5 pick Hector Rondon seize the moment? He might be the least of their worries as Pedro Strop and Justin Grimm have showed some cracks in their game at various times, though Strop is throwing the ball well now. The Cubs didn’t have many big moments in the final six weeks as they had a huge lead in the playoff race, so keeping an eye on a young bullpen in a tight playoff contest is a good idea.
4. The running game: The Cubs were second in the majors in stolen bases allowed. Their top two pitchers aren’t great at holding runners on, and catcher Miguel Montero was behind the plate for 71 steals in just 90 games started. It’s an issue that will pop up at some point in the postseason if the Cubs advance. A close game could come down to a stolen base.
5. Youth: As mature as the Cubs' young players are, they still have never experienced a playoff game. Veterans Lester and David Ross admit talking about it is nothing compared to going through it. That's why a one-game playoff on the road could be a scary proposition if a rookie comes up to the plate in a big moment. How will they react? There is no individual history to fall back on.
