Well, here we go. The Wisconsin Badgers versus the Duke Blue Devils for the national championship at Lucas Oil Stadium. The Badgers are seeking their first title since 1941, while the Blue Devils hope to grab their first national title since 2010.
On Dec. 3, the two teams matched up in Madison, Wisconsin, and the Blue Devils left town with an 80-70 victory after Jahlil Okafor scored 13 points (6-for-8) and collected six rebounds. Both teams have progressed since that time, though.
The Badgers' Sam Dekker and Frank Kaminsky have been the best players in the NCAA tournament. They're on an 11-game winning streak that includes wins over Ohio State, Michigan State, North Carolina, Arizona and Kentucky. Bronson Koenig has produced 13 assists to five turnovers during the NCAA tournament. The Badgers aren't the same team that Duke saw four months ago.
But the Blue Devils are different, too. They held Michigan State's half-court offense to just 0.79 points per possession, per ESPN Stats & Info.
The Badgers, however, will be the better team on Monday night. Here are five reasons why the Badgers will win the national title over Duke on Monday:
They've already defeated better teams: Wisconsin has already put together a furious run to the national title game. In Los Angeles, Wisconsin beat North Carolina, which held a late lead. Then, it outscored Arizona 55-45 in the second half. After that, the Badgers finished off Kentucky, one of the greatest defensive teams in the analytics era and probably beyond. Wisconsin scored 1.22 PPP against Kentucky, while also shooting 42 percent from the 3-point line. Arizona had also been one of the best defensive teams in America when it faced Wisconsin in the Elite Eight. The Badgers scored 1.67 PPP against the Wildcats in the second half. Arizona and Kentucky were certainly comparable to Duke. They were more balanced and arguably better than the team that Wisconsin will face on Monday night. If they can beat Kentucky and Arizona in back-to-back games, then the Badgers can beat anyone.
Dekker and Kaminsky: The narrative entering Wisconsin's matchup against North Carolina, Arizona and Kentucky centered on the athleticism and talent that the Badgers would have to overcome. In each matchup, however, Dekker and Kaminsky were the best players on the floor. Wisconsin will be led, again, by two of the top three players on the court Monday night. Dekker has made multiple clutch shots, and he's the kind of performer a team needs in this moment. Kaminsky has averaged 22.6 PPG and 8.3 RPG in Wisconsin's past three games. He collected 20 points (7-for-11) and 11 rebounds with Willie Cauley-Stein and Karl-Anthony Towns in his face on Saturday. North Carolina, Arizona and Kentucky all possess effective defensive forwards who were unable to contain the twosome. Okafor, Amile Jefferson and Marshall Plumlee will get help, and Mike Krzyzewski will employ multiple man and zone looks in his attempt to confound the Badgers. But Dekker and Kaminsky have seen so many setups throughout the Big Dance, and they still performed.
Experience matters: Kentucky looked so young in the final moments of Saturday's game. It was as if the Wildcats were waiting for the finish to happen as opposed to orchestrating something. Meanwhile, the Badgers were cool. They weren't antsy or hesitant. Dekker hit big shots. Josh Gasser was clutch. Kaminsky and Koenig collected key free throws. Gasser, Kaminsky and Dekker are all veterans who've kept Wisconsin together in difficult moments. Duke will be led by three true freshmen: Tyus Jones, Justise Winslow and Okafor. Quinn Cook's leadership has been a boost all season, but youngsters will be asked to make huge plays down the stretch of a national championship game. Anthony Davis and Michael Kidd-Gilchrist are the only true freshmen who've led a team to a national championship in the one-and-done era. It's not easy to do. That's a lot of pressure for that dangerous group. But Wisconsin's vets won't be rattled by the moment. Their experience will be a factor.
They know how to close the show: The Badgers dealt with deficits against North Carolina, Arizona and Kentucky. But they always found a way to finish on top. Their second-half efforts have been breathtaking. With two good teams competing for the national championship, the game could get tight early. One run in the second half could change the game and seal the victory. And in that situation, Wisconsin will shine. That Badgers continue to prove that they know how to deliver in difficult moments. They've done it all season against elite teams. Whatever situation the Badgers face on Monday night, they won't panic. They'll just play their way out of it.
Because this is how the story ends: This is just an opinion. But this is Wisconsin's title. It seems that way. It feels that way. The Badgers just knocked off a team that most assumed would win the national championship and complete a 40-0 season. They beat Arizona and North Carolina. The Badgers have been the best team in the NCAA tournament thus far. Monday feels like a coronation to commemorate that reality. If they just continue to play the way that they've played throughout this tournament, the Badgers will win the national title. That's how the story ends.
