NEW ORLEANS -- Here are 10 reasons why No. 1 Alabama will beat No. 4 Ohio State in Thursday night’s Allstate Sugar Bowl at the Mercedes-Benz Superdome:
1. It’s Ohio State vs. the SEC
In case you might have forgotten, the Buckeyes have officially never defeated an SEC opponent in a bowl game. Ohio State beat Arkansas 31-26 in the 2011 Sugar Bowl, but it later had to vacate the victory because of NCAA sanctions. So the Buckeyes are officially 0-10 against SEC teams in bowl games, including losses to the Crimson Tide in the 1978 Sugar Bowl and the 1995 Citrus Bowl.
2. SEC speed
Under former Florida coach Urban Meyer, the Buckeyes have upgraded their overall team speed, especially on the defensive line and in the linebacker corps. But Meyer isn't even sure the Buckeyes have completely closed the gap on the SEC's best teams, especially the Crimson Tide.
Ironically, it was Meyer who helped the SEC start its recent domination of the Buckeyes with a 41-14 rout in the BCS National Championship after the 2006 season.
"I think the gap's closing a little bit," Meyer said. "I believe speed wins. We're getting faster. Are we SEC speed at certain positions? We certainly are. But that's all relative. We'll find out."
3. Amari Cooper
Cooper, the Biletnikoff Award winner as the country's top receiver, will undoubtedly be the best player on the field Thursday night. Ohio State's ability to contain him might be the biggest factor in whether it can upset the Crimson Tide.
Cooper caught 115 balls for 1,656 yards and 14 touchdowns this season on his way to finishing third in the Heisman voting. He had at least 130 yards receiving in seven games this year and averaged 14.4 yards per catch. The Tide like to utilize Cooper in myriad ways, putting him in the slot, splitting him out wide and handing him the ball out of the backfield.
"The ideal way to defend him," Ohio State co-defensive coordinator Luke Fickell said, "is a pouring rainstorm, winds of 30 or 40 miles an hour. But I don't think that's going to happen in a dome."
4. Big plays
With former USC coach Lane Kiffin directing Alabama's offense, it has been more explosive than at any time during the Nick Saban era.
With Kiffin in charge, Alabama's offense has produced at least 600 yards in four games and 500 yards in eight games. The Crimson Tide were second in the SEC in total offense (490.5) and ranked in the top five in scoring (36.9 points), rushing (209.5 yards) and passing (281 yards).
Alabama had 77 plays of 20 yards or more, second most in the SEC and 10th-most among FBS teams, according to ESPN Stats & Info. Ohio State's defense surrendered only 31 plays of 20 yards or more, fewest in FBS.
5. Quarterback experience
It's hard to believe a first-year starter might have the edge in terms of experience, but Alabama's Blake Sims goes into the game with a lot more mileage under his belt than his counterpart.
Sims, a senior from Gainesville, Georgia, wasn't supposed to win Alabama's starting job during preseason camp. But he held off FSU transfer Jake Coker and hasn't looked back in 13 starts. Under Kiffin's tutelage, Sims set an Alabama single-season total offense record (3,571 yards) and had the second highest QBR rating (88.4) among FBS quarterbacks.
The Buckeyes lost starting quarterback Braxton Miller to a season-ending shoulder injury during preseason camp, and then J.T. Barrett fractured his right ankle in the regular-season finale against rival Michigan. Sophomore Cardale Jones made his first start in the Big Ten championship game, passing for 257 yards with three touchdowns in a 59-0 rout of Wisconsin.
With nearly a month to prepare for the Buckeyes, it's a safe bet that Saban and defensive coordinator Kirby Smart will try to confuse Jones with multiple defensive looks.
6. Punting
Yeah, you read that right. Alabama punter JK Scott, a freshman from Denver, has been a field-position weapon in his first season. Scott has dropped 26 of his 48 punts inside opponents' 20-yard line, which is the best percentage among FBS players. Scott ranks No. 2 in punting with a 47-yard average, and the Crimson Tide are second among FBS teams in net punting (43.3).
Scott gets the ball off quickly and has good hang time. He has allowed only 10 punt returns for 73 yards in 13 games and forced 16 fair catches. Ohio State freshman Jalin Marshall is one of the most explosive punt returners in the country, averaging 12.7 yards per return with one touchdown.
Now, if the game comes down to Alabama kicking a field goal ...
7. T.J. Yeldon's health
When healthy, Yeldon is one of the country's best running backs. He needs only 68 rushing yards to become the first player in Alabama history to run for more than 1,000 yards in each of his first three seasons. Yeldon ran for a team-high 932 yards on 184 carries, averaging 5.1 yards per attempt.
Yeldon was bothered by ankle and hamstring injuries late in the season -- he didn't play against FCS foe Western Carolina and had only 14 carries against Missouri in the SEC championship game -- but he says he's nearly fully recovered now.
"It hasn't really bothered me since I've been practicing," Yeldon said. "I'm almost 100 percent with this ankle. I'll be ready for the game."
If Yeldon is back to his former self, the Tide will have a nice one-two punch to attack Ohio State's stingy defense. Derrick Henry, a 241-pound sophomore, ran for 895 yards with 10 touchdowns, averaging 5.6 yards per carry.
8. Defense
This might not be Alabama's most physically dominating defense, but it still leads FBS teams in run defense (88.7 yards) and is fourth in scoring defense (16.6 points). While the Crimson Tide have been vulnerable against the pass and are prone to giving up big plays, they’re still pretty fundamentally sound.
In fact, Alabama had the fewest missed tackles per game (3.9) among Power 5 conference teams, according to ESPN Stats & Info. Ohio State (4.0) and Stanford (4.0) were tied for second. The Tide might have a couple of blown assignments in the secondary, but they're not going to give up many big plays because of missed tackles.
9. Motivation
Whether it's a convenient excuse for Alabama or not, it played pretty well in past BCS bowl games when it looked as if the Crimson Tide wanted to be there. Since the 2008 season, Alabama is 4-2 in bowl games.
The Crimson Tide's two postseason losses during that stretch came after they dropped their previous game and were knocked out of the BCS title race. In 2008, Alabama fell to Florida 31-20 in the SEC championship game and then was upset 31-17 by Utah in the 2009 Sugar Bowl.
Last season, Alabama lost to Auburn 34-28 in the Iron Bowl, when Tigers defensive back Chris Davis returned a missed field-goal attempt more than 100 yards for a touchdown on the final play of the game. The loss cost the Tide an SEC West title and knocked them out of the SEC championship game. Alabama lost to Oklahoma 45-31 in the Sugar Bowl.
With a chance to advance to the Jan. 12 College Football Playoff Championship Game, there's little doubt the Tide will be motivated Thursday night.
10. Saban
Whether you like him or not, it's hard to argue that Saban isn't the best coach in the country. He is trying to win his fifth national championship (he won one at LSU and three more at Alabama), which would put him second in college football history, one behind legendary Crimson Tide coach Paul "Bear" Bryant.
