NEW YORK -- The New York Mets once again will be playing “meaningful games in September,” to use owner Fred Wilpon’s loaded old phrase.
There nonetheless is no guarantee the Mets reach the postseason for a second straight year in a congested wild-card field. FiveThirtyEight gives the Mets a 43 percent chance.
The best reason for optimism: The Mets enjoy a highly favorable September schedule. After facing the Washington Nationals -- the runaway division leader -- this weekend, things get decidedly less challenging. Of the Mets’ final 25 games, seven are against the Phillies, six are against the Braves and three apiece are against the Reds and Twins. Only six games are against teams with winning records -- Sept. 12-14 at Washington and Sept. 26-28 at Miami.
The best reason for pessimism: The Mets are severely banged up. And they are going only as far as slugger Yoenis Cespedes will take them. Although Cespedes delivered a critical walk-off homer on Monday, the previous day he had to sit out with a flare-up of a cranky quadriceps muscle that remains an issue. Second baseman Neil Walker (back) has opted for surgery and will be out for the rest of the season, and shortstop Asdrubal Cabrera (knee) was out this week. Left-hander Steven Matz had been slated to return from the disabled list on Thursday after dealing with a shoulder strain, but a flare-up will keep him idle. He already is pitching with a bone spur in his pitching elbow that needs to be surgically removed this offseason. And right-hander Jacob deGrom returned to the rotation Thursday -- moved up from Friday -- after getting skipped one turn to try to refresh. DeGrom allowed a combined 13 runs and 25 hits in 9 2/3 innings over two starts before getting skipped Monday in favor of Rafael Montero.
"Any time you have the expanded roster, it helps you, protects you. But let me tell you something, and we've talked about this all year: If Yoenis Cespedes goes down, that's an awful lot to ask of Brandon Nimmo or Michael Conforto to make up for him. If you don't have your best players, and they don't play good, it's tough to replace them. That's what it all comes down to."Terry Collins
The Mets survived the stretch but had to start Robert Gsellman, Montero and Seth Lugo on the mound in consecutive games this week because of the injury depletion.
“It shows you no matter how hard you work to protect these guys, things can happen to them,” manager Terry Collins said. “We’re hoping that by skipping Jake the way we did that he will finish fine -- that he’ll be able to make the rest of his starts. So we think our starting pitching is going to be OK.”
The Mets also will need Jay Bruce to awaken. Acquired on Aug. 1 from the Cincinnati Reds for second baseman Dilson Herrera and 19-year-old left-hander Max Wotell, Bruce has not yet provided the jolt that Cespedes’ acquisition from the Detroit Tigers at last year’s non-waiver trade deadline provided.
Bruce sat Saturday and again Monday because of his lack of contribution. Through 27 games with the Mets, he was hitting only .196 with three homers and eight RBIs while striking out 28 times in 97 at-bats.
The Mets promoted Michael Conforto on Thursday with rosters having expanded, and more players are coming from Triple-A Las Vegas once the Pacific Coast League season ends Monday. Still, the Mets need Cespedes in the lineup and Bruce to provide production comparable to his time with the Reds.
“Any time you have the expanded roster it helps you, protects you,” Collins said. “But let me tell you something, and we’ve talked about this all year: If Yoenis Cespedes goes down that’s an awful lot to ask of Brandon Nimmo or Michael Conforto to make up for him. If you don’t have your best players, and they don’t play good, it’s tough to replace them. That’s what it all comes down to.”
Still, infielder Jose Reyes concluded: “We’re going into September. We’re competing.”
