Early Thursday morning (if you’re watching in the United States), Jordan Spieth and 155 others (not including Rory McIlroy) will tee off at the Old Course at St. Andrews in Scotland. Only one can finish the weekend holding the Claret Jug.
Some people play fantasy, some enter office pools, others just pick winners on a whim. But looking at the trends and statistics heading into The Open, we’re able to give you five trends to look for.
Along the way, we’ll take out the golfers who don’t fit each of these criteria. By process of elimination, the lone remaining golfer is The Open champion. We call it “The Eliminator.”
1. Major winners have been coming from the top of the world rankings
For the first time since the Official World Golf Ranking was created, 11 straight majors have been won by players ranked 30th or better. Furthermore, each of the last four major winners has been ranked eighth or higher.
That’s a change of pace from past Opens. From 2009 to 2012, no golfer ranked better than 33rd won The Open.
2. The Open caters to older players
Although players in their 20s and 30s have been winning most other majors lately, three of the last four Open champions were 40 or older. Since the start of 2000, the only other major won by a player in his 40s has been the 2004 PGA Championship, won by Vijay Singh.
Since 2011, the average age of Open winners has been 38. At the other three majors, the average has been under 30. So let’s give this one to a player 30 or older.
3. Don’t look at last year
Having recent success at The Open isn’t a prerequisite for winning this event. In fact, five of the last six Open champions missed the cut at the previous year’s Open, including 2014 champion McIlroy.
The only winner in the last six Opens who made the cut the previous year was one of the least likely champions in recent memory: Darren Clarke in 2011. Let’s consider only players who missed the cut last year.
4. Major winners only need apply, especially at St. Andrews
The Open hasn’t recently been an event for golfers to break through and win a first major. Each of the last three Opens have been won by a player who had won multiple majors.
This holds true especially at St. Andrews. Winners of seven of the last eight Opens at the Old Course had already won a major. So golfers with no majors go by the wayside.
5. Get to Europe a week early, or don’t play in America
Each of the past five Open champions played the Scottish Open the week before his win. But if you’re not playing in Britain, you’re better off not playing at all. Going back to 1990, only two Open champions played the PGA Tour’s John Deere Classic the week before hoisting the Claret Jug: Todd Hamilton in 2004 and Ian Baker-Finch in 1991.
Is that bad news for Spieth? Consider that in the modern era of majors (since 1934), only Lee Trevino has won a PGA Tour event the week before winning The Open. Let’s take out everybody who played stateside last week.
So, whom does that bode well for?
If we look at:
• players ranked in the top 30
• players 30 or older
• previous major winners
• players who missed the cut last year
• players who didn’t play the John Deere Classic last week ...
... that leaves only one player: Bubba Watson.
Correction: An earlier version of this article incorrectly stated that the 2010 Open was won by a golfer who had previously won a major.
Chris Fallica and Zach Jones of ESPN’s Stats & Information group contributed to this article.
