The outsider might take a look at the names of the starters on the Chicago Cubs pitching staff and come to the judgment that if the Cubs are playing in a big game at season’s end, they should start Jon Lester.
But the numbers would certainly point to Joe Maddon giving Jake Arrieta the ball for such a moment.
Arrieta showed again why he’s been the best pitcher on the Cubs staff this season with his dominance of the Pittsburgh Pirates on Tuesday night.
Arrieta is rolling. He is 6-1 with a 1.37 ERA in his last nine starts. He’s 8-1 with a 2.01 ERA on the road this season. And he’s allowed two runs in 21 innings in three starts against the Pirates, a team the Cubs could be playing a big game (or games) against later this season.
Well-earned record
A look at Arrieta’s peripheral stats shows that his numbers are well-earned. He ranks in the top 15 in the National League in both strikeout-to-walk rate and home runs allowed per nine innings among pitchers who have thrown at least 50 innings this season.
He entered Tuesday ranked fifth in the NL in Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP), a stat that functions as an ERA estimator based on strikeouts, walks and home runs allowed.
How he’s winning
What differentiates Arrieta from his peers is how well he fares against left-handed hitters. Opposing lefties are hitting .185 with a .540 OPS against him this season. Both of those rank sixth-lowest in the majors among those qualified for the ERA title.
Pirates left-handed batters were 0-for-9 with three strikeouts against Arrieta. It's the third time this season he didn't allow a hit to a left-handed batter. One of the reasons for that was that every so often, Arrieta went to his changeup and it worked. He threw seven of them and netted four missed swings, tying his career high for misses against that pitch.
How he won
What were the other keys to Arrieta beating the Pirates?
- He induced weak contact: None of the Pirates' 16 balls in play against Arrieta were hit hard, according to Inside Edge, which does video tracking for major-league teams and media.
Arrieta has the fifth-lowest hard-hit rate in the majors this season (10 percent of at-bats against him end with hard-hit ball).
- He survived: Arrieta went to 10 three-ball counts, tied for the second most in his career. However, he escaped trouble, walking only three of those 10 and not allowing a single hit. The seven outs he induced in three-ball counts tied a career high and the third most by any starter in a game this season.
Cy Young discussion
Arrieta tied for ninth in the Cy Young voting last year, receiving three fifth-place votes. Where does he fit into the mix this year?
He entered Tuesday ranked sixth in the National League in Wins Above Replacement. He’s within striking distance of Shelby Miller, who ranks fifth (though Arrieta has a better FIP), but has ground to make up to catch up to the top four: Zack Greinke (6.6), Max Scherzer (5.1), Clayton Kershaw (4.2) and Jacob deGrom (4.1).
By Tuesday, Arrieta’s WAR could be two wins better than both Lester and Jason Hammel, who rank second on the Cubs, with 1.7 WAR each.
