With 11 of 12 NFL playoff teams basically set, the suspense of Week 17 lies in the seeding. It used to be “get in and anything can happen,” but recently, playoff seeding has had a major impact on a team’s chances to advance through the playoffs.
Below is a breakdown of the most likely seed for every team in playoff contention based on 10,000 simulations of the final week of the season using ESPN’s Football Power Index (FPI). As you will read below, Week 17’s games will significantly impact many teams’ specific seeds and chances to advance through the playoffs.
AFC
Two AFC teams are locked into their playoff seeds entering Week 17: the Pittsburgh Steelers with the No. 3 seed and the Houston Texans with the No. 4 seed.
There is also about an 83 percent chance that the Miami Dolphins end the season as the conference’s No. 6 seed, which would set up a Dolphins-Steelers wild-card matchup. Those teams met this season, and the Dolphins won 30-15 in a game defined by Ben Roethlisberger’s knee injury and Jay Ajayi’s 204 rushing yards.
The Patriots can lock up the AFC’s No. 1 seed with a win or tie in Miami or a Raiders loss or tie in Denver. New England lost out on the No. 1 seed last season after a Week 17 loss to Miami and does not want to relinquish home-field advantage again. FPI would give New England about a 64 percent chance to make the Super Bowl as the conference’s No. 1 seed and a 52 percent chance as its No. 2 seed.
Similarly, seeding has a major impact on Oakland’s playoff chances as it faces a crucial game in Denver. The Raiders would lock up the AFC West title with a win or tie, but a loss to the Broncos would drop them to the No. 5 seed if the Chiefs win in San Diego.
Of course, a first-round bye and home-field advantage have a major impact on the Raiders’ playoff hopes, especially considering their quarterback situation. They would be about 4.5 times more likely to make the Super Bowl as the No. 2 seed (18 percent chance) than as the No. 5 seed (4 percent chance). Similarly, the Chiefs would have about a 20 percent chance of making the Super Bowl if they win the division and a 6 percent chance without a division title.
NFC
Like the AFC, there are two NFC teams that enter Week 17 with their seeds set: The Dallas Cowboys and New York Giants. That’s about all we know in the NFC as five teams compete for the open four seeds.
The biggest game in terms of seeding is the NFC North de facto title game between the Detroit Lions and Green Bay Packers. The winner of that game will lock up a top-4 seed, while the loser will have a 62 percent chance of missing the playoffs. Assuming the Packers-Lions game does not end in a tie, the Redskins will make the playoffs with a win at home against the Giants.
Results around the league will largely affect where the NFC North winner falls, but the most likely outcome is that the winner of Sunday’s game will be the NFC’s No. 4 seed. There is also about a 36 percent chance that the NFC North champion will be the No. 3 seed.
Finally, the No. 2 seed in the NFC remains in question as the Falcons (10-5), Seahawks (9-5-1) and Lions (9-6) are all still alive. Excluding more complicated tie scenarios, the Falcons clinch a first-round bye with a win or losses by the Seahawks and Lions; the Seahawks clinch the No. 2 seed with a win and Falcons loss; and the Lions clinch it with a win and losses by the other two contenders.
How much does the No. 2 seed matter for the two main contenders? The Falcons would have a 42 percent chance to make the Super Bowl as the No. 2 seed and about a 19 percent chance as the No. 3 or No. 4 seed. Similarly, the Seahawks’ Super Bowl chances would rise to about 34 percent with a first-round bye and fall to about 11 percent without one.
Clearly, as history shows and FPI projects, seeding matters.
