The Baltimore Orioles decided that they liked what they had in Mark Trumbo enough to retain him at a price that was not outlandish.
The 31-year-old Trumbo reportedly agreed to a three-year, $37.5 million deal with the Orioles. That deal is the 11th-largest in both total value for a free agent this offseason and in average annual value among those who agreed to deals of three years or longer this offseason.
Among those who got bigger deals than Trumbo -- right fielder Josh Reddick, who turns 30 in a month -- got a four-year, $52 million contract from the Houston Astros, coming off a season in which his OPS was 101 points lower than Trumbo’s.
Trumbo had career highs last season in home runs (47), RBIs (108), hits (157) and OPS (.850). The majors-leading 47 home runs surpassed his previous high by 13 (34 in 2013) and were 11 more than he hit in 2014 and 2015 combined. Of those 47, 20 either tied the game or put his team ahead. The only player with more such home runs last season was Evan Longoria (21).
However, the combination of a low on-base percentage (.316, the lowest by a 45-home run hitter) and defensive struggles (-11 defensive runs saved) brought down his overall value.
He finished with 1.6 Wins Above Replacement. He’s one of three players to have a sub-2.0 WAR and have more than 45 home runs, along with Jose Canseco (1998 Blue Jays) and Ryan Howard (2008 Phillies).
Not surprisingly, Trumbo fared well in Camden Yards, hitting 25 home runs and posting a .334 on-base percentage in 291 at-bats there, compared to 22 homers and a .299 on-base percentage in 322 at-bats on the road.
Perhaps also of note: He had a .329 OBP in 420 plate appearances when playing in the field, but a .296 on-base percentage in 247 plate appearances as a designated hitter. The Orioles’ acquisition of Seth Smith could make Trumbo a full-time DH next season, since the team is seemingly set at first base (with Chris Davis) and the corner outfield spots (Smith and Hyun Soo Kim).
The scouting report
If you want to predict how Trumbo is going to do, just take a look at the location of the pitch.
Trumbo had a .762 slugging percentage against pitches on the inner-half of the plate or off the inside corner, the highest slugging percentage in the majors. But he slugged .378 against outer half (or off the outside corner) pitches, which ranked in the bottom quartile among batting-title qualifiers.
The 384-point difference was the largest in the majors (the average differential for a major leaguer was 69 points).
This is nothing new for Trumbo, whose career differential is 222 points (.595 slugging percentage vs outer-half, .373 slugging percentage versus inner-half).
