In the past 100 NBA playoff Game 7s, the road team has won 22 games, dating back to a New York Knicks win over the Boston Celtics in Game 7 of the 1973 Eastern Conference finals.
As such, it wouldn't be impossible for the Washington Wizards to manage an upset in Game 7 of their conference semifinals series against the Celtics on Monday. In fact, our Basketball Power Index gives them a 32 percent chance to win, which is better than history would indicate.
The Wizards are trying to end the second-longest conference finals drought in the NBA (only the Clippers have gone longer) and advance to that round for the first time since 1979. They’re also trying to end a drought for the Washington region of 67 consecutive seasons without a conference finals appearance.
We poured through our video-tracking data and other numbers on the Wizards' playoff performance and found three things to watch for them in Monday’s game.
Scoring against and stopping Horford
In the three games in Boston, Wizards players shot 34 percent (12-for-35) when their primary defender was Al Horford, including 2-for-12 in a Game 5 loss.
The three games in Washington were a different story. The Wizards shot 47 percent against him (21-for-45) and averaged 17 points per game when he was the primary defender (they averaged 10 per game in the three in Boston).
This is actually as simple as saying that Marcin Gortat needs to be a factor. He’s 7-for-10 against Horford in Washington but 4-for-11 in Boston.
Stopping Horford is going to be easier said than done. He is 24-for-31 from the field in Boston in this series.
The person in whose hands the Wizards want the ball is Marcus Smart. He’s shooting 32 percent (12-for-38) in this series. He’s also 12-for-25 from the free throw line after shooting 81 percent during the regular season.
Force the shot off the drive
The Celtics had 10 baskets and nine free throws on shots off drives to the basket in their Game 2 win. They managed six baskets and eight free throws on drives in Game 3. But in the past three games, the Celtics have not scored on the drive. They’ve gone 7-for-31 on those shots and managed only three free throws.
Isaiah Thomas is 1-for-13 on shots off drives in that span.
Something from the bench
When the Wizards traded for Bojan Bogdanovic, it was with the hope that he could make a big impact off the bench. That happened in spurts in the last third of the regular season, and it has been true to an extent in the playoffs.
In the Wizards’ three wins in the series, he is averaging 12 points per game and is plus-12. In the three losses, he is averaging 5.3 points and is minus-38.
Bogdanovic was 4-for-8 on catch-and-shoot 3-point shots in Games 3 and 4 of the series. He went 3-for-12 in the other four games.
They’ve done it before
The Wizards franchise has won Game 7s on the road before, and the most recent one came in the biggest spot: Game 7 of the 1978 NBA Finals against the Seattle SuperSonics. That stood as the last Game 7 road win in the Finals until the Cavaliers defeated the Warriors last season.
John McTigue also contributed to this story.
