Let's continue our half-full, half-empty series with Nelson Cruz. The outfielder/designated hitter is in the same position as he was last offseason, when he got a qualifying offer from his team, turned it down and hit free agency. The difference is, last year nobody wanted him. After he rejected the Rangers' $14.1 million offer last November, Cruz -- then 33 and coming off a 50-game PED suspension -- didn't sign until spring training. He finally accepted a one-year, $8 million deal with the Orioles on Feb. 24.
Cruz then went out and led the majors with 40 home runs, drove in 108 runs, and finished seventh in the MVP voting. He's a year older, but he's going to get a lot more than $8 million this time around.
Will he be worth Jim Bowden's projected three-year, $48 million contract? Let's look at both sides.
HALF-FULL
In 2014, the average major league team hit 140 home runs. In 2009, the average was 168. A decade ago, it was 182. In other words: Power is scarcer these days, every team wants more of it, and Cruz has it.
Yes, those 40 home runs were a career high -- and 13 more than he had in 2013. But his 2014 total wasn't as much of an outlier performance as the raw number suggests. From 2009, when Cruz became a regular with the Rangers, through 2013, he averaged 35 home runs per 162 games while hitting .272/.331/.511. In 2014, he played 159 games and hit 40 home runs while hitting .271/.333/.525. He was the same hitter in 2014 that he's always been; he just played a full slate and hit a few more homers.
Cruz had battled nagging injuries earlier in his career, but he played 159 games in 2012, 109 games (because of the 50-game suspension) in 2013, and 159 games in 2014. And before you attribute his 2014 power surge to the advantage of hitting in cozy Camden Yards, note that 25 of his homers last season came on the road.
When a player reaches Cruz's age, you worry about his bat slowing down. But he can still punish a fastball. He hit .324/.389/.644 against fastballs in 2014 -- good for the fifth-best wOBA in the majors -- with 23 home runs. As the heat map below indicates, Cruz was particularly adept at jumping on low fastballs. In this era, when pitchers like to pound the ball at the knees, being able to consistently drive that low pitch is a particularly valuable skill.
As for concerns about Cruz's defense, those might be a little overstated. He split his time between the outfield and designated hitter with the Orioles, but his 2014 defensive metrics were actually positive: he was plus-3 in defensive runs saved (DRS). In 2013 he was minus-3 in DRS. Yes, he did rate poorly in 2012 with a minus-12 DRS, but that season stands out as a bit of an aberration.
As for the PED suspension in 2013, remember that it was for violating the MLB drug policy during the 2011-12 offseason. Cruz's explanation was that he had lost 40 pounds because of a stomach virus and wanted to get his strength back for the season. While you never know what a player is doing or not doing, there's nothing in his statistical record that suggests Cruz received a sustained performance boost from PEDs. I view that as a nonfactor now.
HALF-EMPTY
There's a reason Cruz wasn't in big demand last offseason -- and it wasn't just because of the suspension. He's largely a one-dimensional player, a guy with some power who has a mediocre on-base percentage (save for that fluke 2010 season, when he hit .318) and plays below-average defense. Considering that he'll turn 35 next July, his defense is only going to become more of a liability. With that in mind, he probably has value only to an American League team that can play him at DH at least part of the time.
And the truth is that his 2014 season was a bit of an outlier. His 4.7 WAR was a career high; from 2011 through 2013, his average WAR was 1.4. Are you going to trust a one-season sample size or a three-season track record? Cruz will likely revert back to being a 1.5-win player, which makes him worth about $9-10 million per season instead of $16 million.
Plus, there's the possibility that he'll collapse and have even less value. Maybe not in 2015, but the history of players of his ilk doesn't suggest a positive aging curve.
Among outfielders/DHs since 1980 who started the season at 33 years old, Cruz's 4.7 WAR actually ranked 17th. Almost all the players ahead of him were superior athletes or plus defenders, with the exception of Edgar Martinez (a much more valuable hitter than Cruz) and Jim Rice. Rice was worth 5.6 WAR in 1986, at age 33. It was his last good season. From ages 34 to 36, he was worth 0.0 WAR.
For a more recent example, I'd point to Josh Willingham. In 2012, at age 33, Willingham hit 35 home runs for the Twins, with an adjusted OPS a hair higher than Cruz's. Like Cruz, he had little defensive value. Then Willingham hit .211 with 28 home runs over the past two seasons -- and retired at the end of last season at age 35.
Cruz may have more good seasons in him. But do you want to bet $16 million per season on that?
What do you think? Half-full or half-empty on Cruz?
