Tonight's ESPN game between the Pittsburgh Pirates and St. Louis Cardinals is a critical August contest with a terrific pitching matchup between Gerrit Cole and Michael Wacha. The Pirates are six games behind the Cardinals and if they want to avoid the wild-card game for a third straight season beating the Cardinals head-to-head is paramount. While Cole's rise to stardom was certainly predicted ever since he was the first overall pick in the 2011, Wacha's rise was less of a sure thing, even though he was also a first-round pick in 2012.
With Adam Wainwright out, Wacha is now the marquee name in the St. Louis rotation -- a rotation that has been one of the best in major league history, as Jayson Stark detailed the other day. Wacha is 13-4 with a 2.92 ERA, which isn't a big surprise until you consider the rare scapular stress injury he suffered last summer that knocked him out of the postseason rotation. Back in spring training there were not only potential concerns about his health but also whether the Cardinals would limit his innings.
That's no longer an issue as Wacha has looked so good the Cardinals have moved forward without worrying about his shoulder, as Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch reported a few days ago. "We've been pretty adamant about if it looks right we're not doing anything," manager Mike Matheny said. "If it doesn't look right, it's going to be obvious he needs time. Right now, I just want him to keep pitching. I want that to be what he hears from me. As long as feels all right, as long as it looks all right, he's going to be on the mound."
Wacha fell to the 19th pick in 2012, but climbed quickly to the majors and became a postseason hero in 2013. He's another example of an area in which the Cardinals excel: drafting college players who have put up good numbers in major conferences. The Cardinals aren't ignoring conventional scouting reports, but they also place an emphasis on players with a track record of success at a high level. You don't see them spending high picks on one-tool power guys or raw-armed high school pitchers.
Look at some of the guys who have helped this year's team. I've gone back and checked out some of the scouting reports from when the Cardinals drafted these players to see what flaws the Cardinals ignored. As you can see from the numbers, they all produced in college the years they were drafted.
Michael Wacha (19th pick, 2012)
College: Texas A&M
Stats: 9-1, 2.06 ERA, 113 1/3 IP, 95 H, 20 BB, 116 SO
Knocks against him: Lack of a good breaking ball, fastball merely 90-93 mph
Wacha was widely recognized to have the best changeup in the 2012 draft and while Baseball America rated him eighth overall, he fell 11 spots later. The Cardinals loved his command and competitiveness. Seven pitchers were selected ahead of him; they've combined for 1.8 WAR in the majors, compared to Wacha's 5.5. As a rookie in 2013, Wacha was primarily a two-pitch pitcher, throwing his fastball or changeup 92 percent of the time. But those two pitches now account for 75 percent of his offerings as he throws more curveballs and cutters.
Stephen Piscotty (36th pick, 2012)
College: Stanford
Stats: .329/.415/.467, 5 HR, 4 SB, 30 BB, 23 SO
Knocks against him: Power, defense at third base
You could also throw in a poor history of Stanford hitters in the pros as a knock against him. St. Louis doesn't obsess over power at the big-league level and they don't obsess over power in the draft. Piscotty had a good line-drive stroke and controlled the strike zone. His defense at third was problematic enough that he moved to the outfield in the minors, and while he doesn't profile as a prototypical 25-homer corner outfielder, the bat has looked good so far as he's hitting .355 in 62 at-bats.
Tim Cooney (Third round, 2012)
College: Wake Forest
Stats: 6-7, 3.82 ERA, 99 IP, 99 H, 38 BB, 90 SO
Knocks against him: Inconsistency, command
Cooney has made six starts filling in in the rotation, going 1-0 with a 3.16 ERA and a strikeout to walk ratio of 29:10 in 31 1/3 innings. Cooney may have had some control issues at Wake Forest but he still had a good K rate in the ACC -- and he throws a changeup to help neutralize right-handed batters.
Kolten Wong (22nd pick, 2011)
College: Hawaii
Stats: .378/.492/.560, 7 HR, 23 SB, 42 BB, 20 SO
Knocks against him: Size, you don't draft second basemen in the first round
Most second basemen began their professional careers at shortstops. Wong was a rarity as a first-round pick, a second baseman all the way. But look at those college numbers: Twice as many walks as strikeouts, some pop, some speed and he could field the position. He could play, even if he didn't have one tool that was off the charts.
Matt Carpenter (13th round, 2009)
College: TCU
Stats: .333/.472/.662, 11 HR, 13 SB, 51 BB, 24 SO
Knocks against him: Fifth-year senior, foot speed, lack of power for third base
Look at the batting line: Yes, he was 23 years old and that's why he slid so far in the draft, but hard to believe that he fell that far. (The Cardinals signed him for $1,000). Again, he could hit and he controlled the strike zone. None of his other tools graded as plus, but the hit tool is arguably the most important one of all.
Lance Lynn (39th pick, 2008)
College: Mississippi
Stats: 7-4, 4.52 ERA, 89 2/3 IP, 90 H, 31 BB, 110 SO
Knocks against him: Bad body, no pitch that graded above average
The ERA was a bit high but he had a good strikeout-to-walk ratio in the tough SEC and had showed steady improvement in that area throughout his major league career. Like a lot of Cardinals draft picks, he graded high in competitiveness and aptitude. While viewed as a potential back-of-the-rotation starter, he's become a top-of-the-rotation starter, relying almost exclusively on his power sinker.
Jon Jay (Second round, 2006)
College: Miami (Fla.)
Stats: .361/.490/.520, 6 HR, 31 SB, 39 BB, 30 SO
Knock against him: Tweener, no outstanding strength, unorthodox habits at the plate
Jay has battled injuries this season and hasn't contributed much but has been a valuable part of the Cardinals' success in recent seasons. Again, he was a guy who kind of did a little bit of everything in college, but lacked any knockout tool other than an ability to spray line drives all over the place.
Anyway, this hasn't been the Cardinals' only way to player development. Trevor Rosenthal was a junior college shortstop with a good arm. Carlos Martinez was signed out of the Dominican Republic (after initially signing with the Red Sox, Martinez failed to pass an MLB investigation and then signed with St. Louis). Matt Adams was a small-college first baseman with big numbers and a big body. Randal Grichuk was a first-round pick by the Angels, acquired in the trade for David Freese. Jaime Garcia was a 22nd-round pick out of high school in Texas.
The Cardinals never draft high. But their ability to snag college talent has continued to fuel the Cardinals Way.
