1. St. Louis Cardinals. After the Cardinals clinched their third straight division title, their fifth straight playoff appearance and their 12th postseason trip in the past 16 seasons after beating the Pirates in the second game of a doubleheader Wednesday, Matt Holliday summed up one trait that makes the Cardinals successful year after year: "You never know when your last celebration will be." It seems like a simple belief, but the Cardinals are better than any organization at not losing that focus. They never enter a season depending on everything to go exactly right. They don't give away games. They usually have depth across the roster and in the minors. They never have the highest payroll, never sign the top free agent, never draft in the top 10 since they're always winning and rarely have the highest-rated prospects. This season? They lost Adam Wainwright after four starts and the pitching had a historic pace for lowest ERA for most of the season. They just won their 100th game.
Earlier, I wrote about how the Blue Jays were built largely through trades and some astute pickups via the waiver wire. The Cardinals, by contrast, have almost completely turned over their 2011 World Series championship team via the farm system. Yadier Molina is a holdover from that team but Matt Carpenter, Kolten Wong, Stephen Piscotty and Matt Adams are all homegrown players. Randal Grichuk was acquired as a minor leaguer. Thomas Pham was drafted way back in 2006. He spent seven years in the minors before reaching Triple-A. Now, at the age of 27, he's in the majors and contributing to a division winner. Of the five starting pitchers with the most starts, four are homegrown. The three relievers with the most innings are homegrown.
The Cardinals trust their young players and aren't afraid to put them in the lineup. When Holliday goes down, they don't make a panic trade, but call up Piscotty and give Pham a chance. When Wainwright went down, they waited for Jaime Garcia to return but also gave starts to Tyler Lyons and Tim Cooney. Those guys did just fine in their opportunities.
As good as they've been all season, September has been their worst month (although they're still 15-13). The rotation, so dominant all season, has struggled; Carlos Martinez has been shut down for the season and Michael Wacha (6.75) and Lance Lynn (4.76) haven't pitched well. Wainwright returned on Wednesday from his torn Achilles to throw an inning of relief, but he's probably not a viable rotation option in the postseason. The offense, despite the surprise contributions from guys such as Piscotty, Randal Grichuk and Pham, isn't anything special, just 10th in the NL in runs scored.
All that means is the Mets and Dodgers, with their sexier starting pitchers, probably will be more popular picks to reach the World Series. The winner of the Cubs-Pirates wild-card game might even be favored to beat the Cardinals. But keep in mind that September record isn't really all that predictive of what happens in October. The Cardinals have reached at least the NLCS the past four seasons. This is an organization that expects to keep celebrating. Do not underestimate.
100 wins for @Cardinals this season. They are the 1st team to 100 wins since the 2011 Phillies. pic.twitter.com/JpDkSDO35o
— Baseball Tonight (@BBTN) October 1, 20152. Toronto Blue Jays. How good are the Blue Jays? They have the biggest run differential since the 2001 Mariners. They clinched their first division title since 1993. R.A. Dickey, at the age of 40, is in the postseason for the first time. Jose Bautista, one of the game's best players the past six seasons, finally makes it to October. David Price will get a chance to erase some of his postseason demons (0-5, 4.98 ERA in five starts). Enjoy the postseason, Blue Jays fans, it's been a long wait.
Current mood. #SQUADGOALS @BlueJays pic.twitter.com/jXDGCguvQm
— Marcus Stroman (@MStrooo6) October 1, 20153. Texas Rangers. Adrian Beltre, Robinson Chirinos and Mike Napoli belted home runs off Tigers rookie starter Matt Boyd on their way to a 6-2 win. Their red-hot bullpen closed it out with 3 2/3 scoreless innings. The Angels lost to the A's, leaving the tying run stranded at third in the ninth, so as the Rangers and Angels meet for their season-ending four-game series, the Rangers are up by 3 games. That means the Angels need to sweep to win the division. I think my favorite, craziest thing happening down the stretch: Napoli platooning in left field. Who saw that coming? Put your hand down.
Rangers won to put their magic number at 2. Forget the division. Astros need the Rangers sweep Angels starting tomorrow.
— Brian McTaggart ⚾️ (@brianmctaggart) October 1, 20154. X-rays negative. Yoenis Cespedes got hit in the hand. He left the game. Mets fans threw up. Terry Collins said he's OK. Mets fans called in sick for work on Thursday. Can't take it ... too much pressure ... just start the postseason already.
5. Cincinnati Reds. They've lost 11 in a row after the Cubs beat them 10-3. We don't usually honor losing teams in the Top 5, but our committee wanted to point out the Reds are now only two games behind the Phillies for MLB's worst record. So, good job, Reds, you've almost tanked your way to the top pick in the 2016 draft!
