NEW YORK -- Of course, all the talk heading into Game 4 of the World Series will be about Noah Syndergaard's statement pitch near the head of Alcides Escobar to begin Game 3 and whether there will be some form of retaliation from the Royals. Pedro Martinez, no stranger to pitching inside, praised Syndergaard:
It's refreshing to see a current pitcher that answered like an old timer! Thoooorrrrrrrrrrr!!!!
— Pedro Martinez (@45PedroMartinez) October 31, 2015That doesn't mean the Royals don't have the right to be angry. It was a dangerous pitch, even if Syndergaard said he had no intention of hitting Escobar. Dodgers pitcher Brandon McCarthy summed it up best:
Are both sides not right in the Syndergaard affair by the way? He does what he has to do & Royals are allowed to be angry.
— Brandon McCarthy (@BMcCarthy32) October 31, 2015While the Royals may want to get back at the Mets, they also have a baseball game to win. It's no occasion to give the Mets a free baserunner. And for all the talk about Syndergaard making a grand statement, he allowed the same three runs in six innings as Matt Harvey did in Game 1. I had written before Game 3 that Syndergaard needed to throw inside more, that the Royals love diving over the plate for those outside fastballs. He did do that, throwing 41 percent of his fastballs inside, compared to a season average of 30 percent.
Let's turn to Game 4's starting pitchers. It's a fun matchup between the veteran Chris Young, who debuted in the majors in 2004, when Steven Matz was 13 years old.
Chris Young
Young is one of the most unique pitchers in the majors. Not only is he 6-foot-10, but he throws his fastball almost exclusively up in the strike zone. Here's his fastball location:
That location is a primary reason Young is the most extreme fly ball pitcher in the majors (minimum 100 innings). That leads to a low batting average on balls in play but a high home run rate -- he allowed 16 in 123.1 innings this season, after allowing 26 in 165 innings with the Mariners in 2014. Despite his size, Young has never been a hard-thrower; he did reach 90 mph eight times in his relief appearance in Game 1, after not reaching that mark all season. Note, however, that due to his size and extension, Young's perceived velocity is higher than his actual velocity. Still, his strikeout rate is below average so the Mets will be putting balls in play against him.
Again, not that Young is all that comparable to other pitchers, but here's how Mets hitters have fared against right-handed fastballs in the upper half of the strike zone:
Michael Conforto: .306/.403/.629
Daniel Murphy: .273/.322/.527
Curtis Granderson: .267/.450/.550
Lucas Duda: .220/.395/.390
David Wright: .18/.256/.356
Yoenis Cespedes: .229/.280/.340
Travis d'Arnaud: .236/.286/.375
Wilmer Flores: .227/.279/.267
Despite that 87 mph fastball, Young is just a two-pitch guy, throwing his fastball 58 percent of the time and his slider 39 percent, with a very occasional changeup. Based on the numbers above, look for the Mets' left-handed hitters to do the damage.
If Young struggles, Kris Medlen or Danny Duffy would be the long reliever. Medlen pitched an inning in Game 3 but Ned Yost said after the game that Medlen is available for two or three innings in Game 4. Coming off his second Tommy John surgery, Medlen hasn't pitched on consecutive games all season, so it was a little odd that Yost used him to mop up on Friday.
Yost was forced to use all his relievers except Wade Davis in Game 3, so he should once again work backward and plan on using Davis for two innings if necessary -- so he isn't likely to want to use Kelvin Herrera or Ryan Madson for more than an inning.
Steven Matz
Matz is the local kid from Long Island who grew up rooting for the Mets and will actually commute to Game 4 from his parents' home.
The 24-year-old has made just eight career starts in the majors -- six in the regular season, two in the playoffs. His fastball averages 94.3 mph and he'll challenge hitters with it:
In his brief career, he's thrown his fastball 68 percent of the time, his curveball 19 percent and his changeup 12 percent. Batters have hit .278/.352/.407 against his fastball compared to .222 against his curve and .209 against his changeup. All four home runs he's allowed in the majors have come against his fastball, so it will be interesting to see if he sticks with two-thirds fastballs or mixes in more offspeed stuff.
This is maybe the most interesting Matz note: In 150 innings between the minors and majors, he's allowed just one extra-base hit to a left-handed batter, a home run by Dean Anna of Memphis back in June. While Royals left-handed hitters hold their own against southpaws, Eric Hosmer was the weakest, and you wonder if Yost should start Kendrys Morales to get another right-handed batter in the lineup. While the Royals would take a defensive hit, remember that Young doesn't induce many ground balls, so defense at first base may not be a big factor anyway.
Like Yost, Terry Collins shouldn't expect his starter to go more than five or six innings at most, so there's a good chance this turns into a bullpen game. Addison Reed, Tyler Clippard and Jeurys Familia retired all nine batters they faced and Jonathan Niese can match up against the left-handed batters as needed in the middle innings.
It's also Halloween, which means something weird will have to happen in this game, right?
