Mike Trout will finish first or second when the American League MVP voting is announced on Thursday. Probably second. It seemed like Josh Donaldson had the momentum at season's end and, of course, the Toronto Blue Jays made the playoffs and the Los Angeles Angels didn't, and that's often a decisive factor in the results.
Trout could be headed for his fourth straight MVP Award; instead, he'll have just one. Via Baseball-Reference.com's Wins Above Replacement, he has been the AL's best player each of his four seasons in the league:
2012
1. Trout: 10.8
2. Robinson Cano: 8.5
MVP -- Miguel Cabrera: 7.2 (fifth)
2013
1. Trout: 8.9
2. Donaldson: 8.0
MVP -- Cabrera: 7.5 (fourth)
2014
1. Trout: 7.9
2. Corey Kluber: 7.4
MVP -- Trout
2015
1. Trout: 9.4
2. Donaldson: 8.8
By the way, Donaldson is no slouch himself. This will be his third consecutive season he ranked as the No. 2 position player in the AL behind Trout.
What I was curious about: How many players have finished in the top two in the MVP voting in four straight seasons? And what have been the best MVP "runs" over a four-year span? Here are the top 10 results, based on a fewest "points":
1. Barry Bonds, 2001-2004: 1-1-1-1
The only player to win four MVP Awards in a row -- or three, for that matter -- Bonds' streak is actually five since he finished second in 2000 to teammate Jeff Kent. How dominant was Bonds? In those four years, Bonds received 114 of a possible 128 first-place votes. He hit .349/.559/.809. Not for a month. Not for half a season. Over four seasons. He was so feared that he received 120 intentional walks in 2004, which may be the most amazing baseball statistic of all time.
2. Barry Bonds, 1990-1993: 1-2-1-1
Oh, yeah, pre-enhanced Bonds was pretty good, too. He led National League position players in WAR all four seasons but finished second to Terry Pendleton in the 1991 voting (Pendleton was third among position players in WAR, behind Bonds and Ryne Sandberg, although Tom Glavine led all NL players that season).
3. Yogi Berra, 1953-1956: 2-1-1-2
How respected was Berra? From 1950 to 1956, he finished third, first, fourth, second, first, first and second in the MVP voting. He doesn't rank as a deserving MVP via WAR -- he was third among AL position players in 1956, his highest ranking -- but remember that catchers don't play as much as other position players (although Berra did carry a heavy workload) and that WAR is going to miss the intangibles Berra brought to the game. MVP voters gave catchers more love in the 1950s as well: Roy Campanella won three NL MVP Awards.
4. Stan Musial, 1948-1951: 1-2-2-2
Musial won three MVP Awards in his career and finished second four times. In 1949 he lost out to Jackie Robinson (who had a 9.6 to 9.3 edge in WAR, not that we had WAR back then); in 1950, a relief pitcher named Jim Konstanty, whose Phillies won the pennant, got 18 of the 24 first-place votes in one of the strangest MVP votes; in 1951, Campanella won, although Robinson and Musial were 1-2 in WAR.
4. Ted Williams, 1941-1947: 2-2-1-2
This was four consecutive seasons played; if you prefer four actual consecutive seasons, Williams also went 1-2-3-1 from 1946 to 1949 for the same score. He famously won Triple Crowns in 1942 and 1947 and didn't win the MVP either season.
6. Albert Pujols, 2003-2006: 2-3-1-2
7. Albert Pujols, 2008-2011: 1-1-2-5
We'll take these two together. Pujols grades as the best player in the NL each season from 2006 to 2009 and the best position player in 2010 as well. Somehow he finished only ninth in the voting in 2007. He's won three MVP Awards overall but could easily have four or five. As we watch him fade down the backstretch of his career, it's easy to forget how awesome he was. From 2001 to 2010, he hit .331/.426/.624 and averaged 8.1 WAR per season.
7. Miguel Cabrera, 2010-2013: 2-5-1-1
Those seasons are bookended by a fourth- and ninth-place finish in the voting, so 2015 will likely be his first non-top 10 finish since 2008. Baseball-Reference keeps track of career MVP Award Shares, based on the following formula: If you get every first-place vote in a given season, your award share is 1.00. If you get half of the possible points, your award share is 0.50. And so on. Cabrera is already 14th on the all-time list (keeping in mind that modern MVP voting began in 1931).
9. Hank Aaron 1956-1959: 3-1-3-3
Aaron would win just the one MVP Award, in 1957. He always felt like he was shortchanged in the MVP voting, but the only time he led in WAR was 1961 (when he was eighth in the voting). The guy who was actually slighted was Willie Mays, who won two MVP trophies when he could have nine or 10.
10. Ryan Howard, 2006-2009: 1-5-2-3
This is the name that doesn't fit on this list, but MVP voters loved Howard. He led the NL in RBIs in three of the seasons, driving in 149, 139, 146 and 141 runs. Was he really an all-time great player in this span? No, not even close. His four-year WAR was 13.6. But he was an RBI machine and that's the class of players MVP voters have historically overrated.
10. Mike Schmidt, 1980-1983: 1-1-6-3
In my book, the most underrated all-time great player. He ranked first or second among NL position players in WAR nine times.
10. Joe DiMaggio, 1938-1941: 6-1-3-1
DiMaggio would add a third MVP Award in 1947 in a rather pedestrian season for him -- 20 home runs, 97 RBIs. By WAR, he was the best position player in the AL in 1937, 1939 and 1940 (he finished second in the 1937 voting).
Note: Andrew McCutchen is on a 3-1-3 run so if he finishes fourth in the year's vote he'll match Howard and DiMaggio with a score of 11.
Other best runs:
12 -- Dizzy Dean, Mickey Mantle, Alex Rodriguez, Ernie Banks
13 -- Eddie Collins, Lou Gehrig, Charlie Gehringer, Eddie Murray, David Ortiz
14 -- Joe Morgan, Mike Piazza
15 -- Willie Mays (twice), Don Mattingly, Albert Belle
