Some thoughts on stuff as the Hot Stove season moves closer to next week's Winter Meetings:
1. Would you rather have Zack Greinke or Jeff Samardzija and Mike Leake?
This is reportedly what the San Francisco Giants may be facing as they pursue Zack Greinke: If he ends up going back to the Los Angeles Dodgers, they could spend roughly the same amount of money on Samardzija and Leake, especially with the report that Samardzija has already been offered $100 million by one club. Over the past three seasons, Greinke has averaged 5.6 WAR per season; Samardzija and Leake have combined to average 4.0 WAR per season. Of course, those figures are weighted to Greinke's monster 2015 season and Samardzija's poor 2015, so the values moving forward may be a little closer.
Analysts have different views on this: Some will point to the importance of depth; some argue that star players push teams to more pennants. The Toronto Blue Jays recently made the decision to spread their resources out rather than put everything into bringing back David Price. In the Giants' case, they already have an ace in Madison Bumgarner and increased depth may prove to be more important.
Verdict: Samardzija/Leake. ESPN Insider Tony Blengino recently wrote why the Giants should pass on Greinke. Even if it means him returning to the Dodgers, I'd agree.
2. Ben Zobrist for four years or Howie Kendrick for two?
This is a hypothetical for a team seeking a second baseman, like the New York Mets. Zobrist is the better player -- more power, more walks, switch-hitter, can play multiple positions if needed -- but also entering his age-35 season while Kendrick is entering his age-32 season. If Zobrist is to be considered a second baseman, keep this in mind: There have been few regulars (400-plus PAs) at the position in recent years who were 35 or older. Here's the list:
2015: Chase Utley
2014: Chase Utley
2013: Marco Scutaro, Mark Ellis
2012: Marco Scutaro, Mark Ellis
2011: Jamey Carroll, Orlando Cabrera
2010: David Eckstein
Verdict: I'll go with Zobrist, even if you're likely to not get much from the final year of the contract. I worry about Kendrick's reliance on batting average to produce value and Zobrist's approach should age well.
3. John Lackey or Hisashi Iwakuma?
You hear and see Lackey's name bandied about more often, perhaps because everyone assumes Iwakuma will return to Seattle. Lackey just turned 37; Iwakuma will turn 35 in April. Which veteran right-hander would you prefer? ESPN Insider Jim Bowden -- who nailed the Price contract -- predicted both will get $15 million per season, with Lackey signing for two years and Iwakuma for three. Dan Szymborski's ZiPS projection system has Lackey worth $18 million per season (over two years) and Iwakuma at $13.3 million over three seasons.
Lackey is coming off one of his best seasons and threw 218 innings, his most since 2007, after pitching 189 in 2013 and 198 in 2014. Iwakuma, meanwhile, has had a couple of nagging injuries the past two seasons (finger and lat strain) and saw his innings decline from 219.2 to 179 to 129.2. But the number of pitchers age 37 or older to throw at least 162 innings in recent seasons has been minimal:
2015: 4
2014: 5
2013: 4
2012: 2
2011: 2
2010: 1
And many of those are repeats: 11 of those 18 seasons are Bartolo Colon, R.A. Dickey and Hiroki Kuroda. So even though Lackey is coming off a terrific season, his age suggests he's a risky bet.
Verdict: It's close, but I'll go with Iwakuma, especially if takes three years to secure Lackey.
4. Yoenis Cespedes or Alex Gordon?
This one is interesting because Cespedes is coming off a 6.3-WAR season and Gordon a 2.8-WAR season, in which he missed time with an injury. Gordon will be 32, Cespedes 30, so there's a two-year age difference to consider as well. Gordon's value has been tied to his great defense in recent years, but there will be concerns that he'll lose some of that moving forward (and the metrics suggest he may have lost a step already). Cespedes, meanwhile, had his best season. Bowden's projected contracts had Cespedes at 6/$126 ($21 million per season) and Gordon at 5/$90 ($18 million).
Verdict: At those values, I'll go with Gordon. I like his plate discipline and consistency, while Cespedes posted OBPs of .294 in 2013 and .301 in 2014. I'm skeptical his 2015 performance will be repeated.
5. Jason Heyward to ... the New York Yankees?
We've heard some trade rumors involving Brett Gardner and Andrew Miller, but otherwise the Yankees have been quiet ... which makes you wonder if Brian Cashman has some tricks up his sleeve. Right now, there isn't an obvious spot for Heyward to play since the team still has Gardner, Jacoby Ellsbury and Carlos Beltran in the outfield, with prospect Aaron Judge waiting in Triple-A. Beltran should be a DH at this point, but he's blocked by Alex Rodriguez at that spot. Still, if the Yankees want a guy, they won't let other bodies get in the way, and they'll be clearing money over the next two years with the subtractions of Beltran, A-Rod, Mark Teixeira and CC Sabathia.
Wallace Matthews just wrote that bolstering the rotation and finding a second baseman remain the team's top priorities, but Heyward would be a good fit for the Yankees given his age and their desire to get younger. Gardner could then be flipped for a second baseman or young pitcher.
Verdict: No on Heyward. There's another young right fielder who will hit free agency in a few years who will be of even more interest to the Yankees: Bryce Harper.
