Ignore salaries and contracts for the moment and just focus on the 2016 season. Would you trade Joey Votto or Nolan Arenado for Aroldis Chapman? Would you trade Anthony Rizzo or Kris Bryant for Wade Davis? In other words: Would you trade a potential MVP candidate for an elite closer?
Based on the BBTN 100, you would. Chapman ranks 22nd on our list, the highest-rated closer, one spot ahead of Davis. Both come in ahead of Arenado (24), Votto (25), Rizzo (27) and Bryant (28). They’re not the only relievers valued highly: Dellin Betances, Craig Kimbrel and Kenley Jansen ranked in the top 50 while Andrew Miller ranked 52nd, ahead of all-around stars such as Adrian Beltre, Mookie Betts and A.J. Pollock.
So what’s going on here?
Teams are obviously placing a premium on closers and bullpen depth, as witnessed by the Yankees acquiring Chapman to go along with Betances and Miller, and the Red Sox giving up a package of top prospects to acquire Kimbrel and dealing solid rotation guy Wade Miley for Carson Smith to set up Kimbrel.
"We felt this was an opportunity for us to add a big arm to our bullpen," Yankees GM Brian Cashman said when he traded for Chapman. In acquiring Kimbrel from the Padres, Red Sox boss Dave Dombrowski said, "There are various names out there, but [he's] one of the best in baseball. We look for him to be our guy back there for years to come."
But neither of those trades required giving up a current big league star. Which means I have to kindly disagree with my fellow voters: The relievers are ranked too high on the BBTN 100. Look, these relievers are putting up incredible numbers so it’s instinctive to give them a high grade on our 1-to-10 scale that was used to evaluate the players. Chapman posted a 1.63 ERA while striking out 116 batters in 66.1 innings. He was even more dominant in 2014, when he struck out more than half the batters he faced. All Davis has done is go 17-3 over the past two seasons with an 0.97 ERA (and that doesn’t include an 0.36 ERA in 25 postseason innings). Kimbrel had a 2.58 ERA in 2015 -- raising his career mark all the way up to 1.63. Betances made the All-Star team his first two seasons in the league thanks to 266 strikeouts in 174 innings, a 1.45 ERA and a .153 average allowed, all while carrying the highest workload of any reliever in the majors.
The numbers are fantastic. But if so many relievers are putting up such numbers, they become a little less fantastical. It’s like the year Tony Batista hit 41 home runs and nobody noticed because everyone was hitting home runs. We haven’t mentally adjusted to the fact many relievers are posting sub-2.00 ERAs on a regular basis and striking out more than 10 batters per nine innings, so we end up grading Votto and Arenado and Rizzo on a different scale. No general manager would trade players of that quality for a closer.
Here’s another way to look at it. Chapman was pretty awesome in 2015, allowing a meager .181 average, although that was actually the highest of his career. The Reds went 59-3 when leading entering the ninth inning. That sounds pretty effective. Except that winning percentage ranked just 24th in the majors. The Yankees didn’t lose a game all season when they led entering the ninth inning, a key reason they won a wild card. But neither did the Nationals nor Padres, two teams that didn’t sniff the postseason. Only three teams lost more than four games they led heading into the ninth: the Rockies (five), Rangers (five) and Mariners (eight).
I’m not trying to dismiss the importance of a closer. The Astros finished with one more win than the Angels, winning a wild card while the Angels went home. The Astros were 73-1 when leading after eight innings while the Angels were 71-4. So, yes, while the spread of blown leads at the end of games is generally small, those one or two wins can make a huge difference. Plus, the value in guys such as Chapman and Kimbrel isn’t just their dominance but their year-to-year excellence. The Astros had that great ninth-inning record but still went out and acquired Ken Giles (who just missed the top 100 after a half-season closing for the Phillies, but ranked ahead of All-Stars such as Kyle Seager and Brian Dozier).
There is one argument for ranking all these relievers in the top 100. If we use a stat called Win Probability Added, which emphasizes the game score and inning, closers benefit from pitching in high-leverage situations. According to Baseball-Reference, Davis led all AL pitchers in WPA, while Miller and Betances ranked third and fourth. Shawn Tolleson, Zach Britton and Huston Street also ranked in the top 10. In the NL, Mark Melancon ranked third -- behind Zack Greinke and Jake Arrieta but ahead of Clayton Kershaw -- while four other relievers ranked in the top 10, including Cardinals setup man Seth Maness.
So, yes, closers have enormous value and bullpen depth has become a much-desired commodity. It’s hard to win with a bad bullpen (just ask the Mariners, who lost 11 games they led heading into the eighth inning). But, you know, it’s hard to win with a bad shortstop or a bad catcher or a bad center fielder.
Ask yourself this: Jonathan Lucroy is the No. 100 guy on the BBTN 100. Would you trade him for Wade Davis?
