Considering the Cleveland Indians rank third in the American League with 4.76 runs scored per game, you might think losing an old-time rental such as Marlon Byrd wouldn’t be that big of a deal. The problems, however, become manifest when you look at what the Indians are left to bank on in his absence.
The big problem is power, because the Indians don’t have a lot of it to spare, ranking slightly below league average with a .157 Isolated Slugging rate (ISO). Byrd ranked second on the team among all regulars or semi-regulars in slugging. With his .968 OPS against southpaws, Byrd was giving the Tribe a thumper against left-handed pitching, consistent with what you’d expect from his career.
Replacing that, as well as the power Byrd could provide, will be especially hard on the Indians because the real hole in the outfield and the lineup is the ongoing absence of left fielder Michael Brantley. Byrd was signed in spring training as a plug for what was expected to be a brief absence for Brantley, to give the Indians a right-handed power source to complement offseason addition Mike Napoli.
Unfortunately, the Indians are still without Brantley. His brief, powerless, 11-game return (.561 OPS) didn’t create much optimism that he was anywhere close to being ready to come back from shoulder surgery; he returned to the DL on May 10. His latest update on regaining full strength isn’t great: non-contact swings, hitting off a tee and no ETA for a return. Rushing back Brantley again only risks his health and ability to help the third-place Indians win the AL Central.
That leaves the Indians outfield with mixing and matching four outfielders. Lonnie Chisenhall should continue to get the right-field starts against right-handed pitching, providing a decent OBP. Rajai Davis will presumably play every day somewhere, floating among all three outfield slots. And then … well, it gets interesting.
Speedy rookie Tyler Naquin has been called up to take Byrd’s spot, and he's already flashing the speed and decent contact-hitting stroke in an initial 27-game, season-opening trial. If Naquin produces the power and defense that put him on Keith Law’s preseason top prospects list for the organization, the damage incurred by Byrd’s absence on top of Brantley’s might be situational. Presumably, Naquin will get at-bats from the bottom of the order, either because manager Terry Francona will continue to experiment leading off with DH Carlos Santana against right-handers, or until Naquin starts hitting well enough to earn a move to the top of the order.
But that still leaves a lot of at-bats to assign to somebody, at least until Brantley returns, and that brings us into the really big question for the time being: Can utilityman Jose Ramirez continue to crank out an OPS north of .800 while playing regularly? The career infield sub has put up a team-best .888 OPS in May, completely unexpected considering he was at .644 before 2016. If -- or skeptics would say “when” -- his bat goes slack, you’ve got a whole lot of mixing and matching to talk about, and much more concern that the Indians offense will lack more than just power. Add in Ramirez's struggles with getting a handle on left field -- no surprise since the infielder had perhaps two starts there in his career before this season – and you can see how he could go from May hero to June zero in short order.
The Skinny: With Naquin up, Francona can afford to play some matchup games that exploit Davis’ versatility as an outfield rover. Unless Ramirez keeps swinging a hot bat, look for the questions over Brantley’s timetable to acquire that extra sense of urgency.
