1. It's time to admit that Kyle Hendricks is the Cy Young front-runner. Right? No? Maybe? I don't actually know. What I do know is that the Chicago Cubs' starter is 15-7 with a 2.03 ERA after he took a no-hitter into the ninth against the Cardinals. He lost the no-no when Jeremy Hazelbaker led off the ninth with a home run on an 0-2 changeup. Hendricks is so good at manipulating the ball and working it around the edges of the strike zone:
Talk about hitting your spots: pic.twitter.com/Yu2UJ1YZT6
— David Schoenfield (@dschoenfield) September 13, 2016
The good sinking action he gets on his fastball and changeup means he induces a lot of soft contact, which ties into a debate: How much of the Cubs' historic defensive numbers are the result of great defense, and how much derives from the ability of Hendricks, Jake Arrieta, Jon Lester and the rest of the staff to limit hard contact? Your opinion on that might determine how you view Hendricks as a Cy Young candidate, considering he isn't near the top of the league in strikeouts (15th) or innings (10th). The Professor, however, has a big lead in ERA, has allowed eight runs in his past eight starts and has a 1.33 ERA since the All-Star break. The biggest knock against him in the Cy Young race might simply be the perception that he's the Cubs' No. 3 starter (indeed, the Cubs rearranged their rotation today so Lester is lined up to start the playoff opener), no matter the numbers.
Miguel Montero, who's caught almost 8,400 innings in the big leagues, calls Kyle Hendricks the most-prepared pitcher he's ever worked with.
— Patrick Mooney (@CSNMooney) September 13, 2016
2. Rougned Odor, MVP candidate? This was brought up on a national baseball show, after Odor hit what proved to be the game-winning home run for the Rangers in the top of the 12th inning. It gave his team a 4-3 win over the Astros. The Rangers obviously have a big lead in the AL West, but they're also two games up on the Indians for the AL's best record and home-field advantage, something to push for, considering the Rangers are 47-22 at home.
Anyway, Odor is doing a lot of great stuff this season. He has 31 home runs, has knocked in 85 runs, plays a key defensive position and has done all this at 22. He's one of just 28 players 22 or younger to hit 30-plus home runs and, along with Alex Rodriguez, the only middle infielder to do so. He has also delivered a lot of big hits for the Rangers, and this was his second go-ahead home run in extra innings. But he isn't an MVP candidate, and it isn't close. Because he rarely walks -- just 17 times, which means he could join Andres Galarraga as the only players with 30 home runs and fewer than 20 walks -- his OBP is just .306.
Somebody asked me on Twitter, "What's wrong with making contact?" This is a common misunderstanding for those who don't realize the importance of getting on base and that simply putting the ball in play is a good thing. You know who has the highest rate of contact among 150 qualified regulars when he swings? Jose Iglesias. You know who ranks 72nd? Mike Trout. Kris Bryant ranks 123rd, and Nelson Cruz 132nd. As for Odor, his lack of walks is not because he's really good at making contact (he ranks 88th) but because he swings at everything. He has the 10th-highest swing rate of those 150 regulars and the fifth-highest chase rate on pitches outside the zone. Some of those swings produce big results, such as the home runs, but many produce no contact or weak contact, which gets back to the .306 OBP. Odor makes a lot of outs. You aren't creating runs when you're making outs. Runs created per 27 outs is a good way to look at the impact of OBP. A lineup of Odors would create about 5.69 runs per game, which ranks 60th among major league players. Very good ... but not MVP-level.
I don't mean to bash the guy. He's a good player, he's exciting, and if he can rein in the weak spots in his game -- including his defense -- Odor has a chance to be a big star. But he isn't there yet. In the year of the second baseman -- Jose Altuve, Brian Dozier, Robinson Cano, Dustin Pedroia and Ian Kinsler have all been worth 5-plus WAR -- Odor isn't in the same class as the top guys. One more note: Odor has come up big in "late and close" situations, as he hit .312/.330/.570 before Monday. He has six home runs in those situations, tied for second in the majors with seven others behind Salvador Perez, who has seven. Rangers fans certainly appreciate that, and those moments have helped Odor receive national recognition, aside from his little incident with Jose Bautista. But there's a Rangers teammate who has been even more clutch: Entering Monday, Adrian Beltre was hitting .393/.411/.631 with five home runs in late and close situations.
Tonight's hero! 👊 pic.twitter.com/1Glso6z69W
— Texas Rangers (@Rangers) September 13, 2016
3. David Price is on fire.
David Price has won 7 consecutive starts for the first time in his career. He has a 2.16 ERA in those 7 games (50.0 IP, 12 ER).
— Red Sox Notes (@SoxNotes) September 13, 2016
It was a big night for the Red Sox in a 12-2 bashing of the Orioles. Although the AL East is still up for the grabs, the Red Sox are starting to put a little distance between themselves and the wild-card contenders. They hold a four-game lead on the Tigers, the top team currently out of a playoff spot. On this night, Price went eight innings, and with the way he's pitching, I wonder if he's the Game 1 starter over Rick Porcello if the Red Sox do win the division. David Ortiz got a standing ovation after he tied Mickey Mantle on the all-time home run list, and Mookie Betts was working on his homework during the game:
Sox up 8, cruising, comfortable....MVP candidate Mookie Betts stays studying game/pitcher notes in dugout. pic.twitter.com/Pd9CwIMaYs
— Gary Striewski (@garystriewski) September 13, 2016
4. Who wants the NL wild card? The Cardinals almost get no-hit. The Mets lose 8-1. The Giants get shut out by the Padres. Good job, contenders! The Giants remain 1.5 games up on the Mets, and the Mets are still a half-game up on the Cardinals.
5. Mariners win sixth in a row. Ariel Miranda pitched a solid six innings and led 2-0 after six when the Mariners broke it open. Has any team been as streaky as the Mariners? Two weeks ago, they lost 8-7 in Texas when Edwin Diaz blew the save. The next day, they lost 14-1, with their spirits seemingly broken and the future bleak. A week ago, they were six games out of the wild card and had fallen behind all the other AL wild-card contenders. Now the Mariners are just 2.5 back of the Orioles and have climbed over the Royals and Astros. This is their season broken down into hot and cold streaks: 2-6, 26-12, 8-19, 7-2, 9-13, 14-4, 4-12, 6-0. You can't predict this crazy game.
