While bowl season is an entertaining time of year, it's not without drawbacks. Long layoffs, silly corporate sponsorships, countless coaching changes and -- here's the kicker, excuse the pun -- three teams with losing records will play in a bowl game.
With an epic slate of 40 games, many football fans might feel beaten down and overwhelmed. Often we see basic concepts of money management thrown out the window, as bettors feel obligated to place a wager on every game. If they lose their first few bets, panic sinks in, and at their peril, they make recklessly large bets in an attempt to make up ground.
These casual, reactionary bettors are referred to as squares -- weekend warriors who place wagers based on hunches and intuition, rather than data and analysis. Oddsmakers know these bettors will overwhelmingly take favorites and overs, and sportsbooks will shade their lines to encourage action on the other side.
Our long-held principles challenge this basic human psychology: Bet against the public and take unpopular viewpoints to consistently get an extra point or half-point. If this doesn't seem significant, consider that it can increase your long-term win rate by 1-3 percent.
In our weekly NFL column, we have explained a range of contrarian betting strategies, which include betting against the public, taking teams after a blowout loss, fading "elite" teams and backing teams that frequently fail to cover the spread. These tactics may seem counterintuitive, but they have allowed us to exploit public perception and take advantage of artificially inflated lines.
