Reason for optimism: Down goes Frazier! Goodbye, Aroldis Chapman. Hey Milwaukee -- this is how you tank!
Reason for pessimism: Joey Votto is still good enough to play the roles of Roger Dorn and/or Willie Mays Hayes and mess up management's plan to suck.
Take a 98-loss team, subtract the superstar closer with a 100-plus-mph fastball and 1.63 ERA, and remove the team's leading RBI and home run producer. While it's hard to recall that Johnny Cueto and Mike Leake were significant contributors to the 2015 team, because they were traded in July, they did give the Reds 40 starts' worth of 3.10 ERA production. Remove all of those players, make no material upgrades in the offseason and allegedly contemplate turning the closer role over to a low-strikeout, high-walk, flyball pitcher, and you have the formula for possibly losing 100 games.
