Reason for optimism: The Rays are one player away from being a serious contender to win the AL East.
Reason for pessimism: Sadly for Tampa's fan base, that player is Joey Votto.
Last year, the Rays were my favorite "over" call in all of baseball. While our previews were published with the market at 78.5 wins, at points during spring training it was as high as 79.5 -- which meant the Rays had to win game 162 to earn all of the "over" backers winning tickets to cash. So, was last year's over call lucky in retrospect? I don't think so.
Despite finishing with an under-.500 record, the Rays outscored their opponents, suggesting talent two games in excess of their final win total -- but even that underscores their true level of play. The Rays were once again victims of cluster luck, which was the case in 2014 as well (and helped set last year's expectations unrealistically low). In 2014, the driver of the number was an unlucky amount of runs allowed; in 2015, they should have scored a lot more runs.
