Reason for optimism: This is probably the most improved offense in the majors.
Reason for pessimism: If run prevention regresses just as much, another losing record will follow.
In the Chicago Cubs capsule, it was mentioned that in 2015 the Cubs made a change at catcher that replaced one of the worst pitch framers in baseball with one of the best, a switch that Baseball Prospectus calculated improved run prevention by 40 runs. Across the majors this year, there aren't too many changes at the catcher position, but the White Sox have made a switch.
After three years with Tyler Flowers spending the majority of time behind the plate, former Tiger Alex Avila will be Chicago's starting catcher in 2016. White Sox fans are excited because Flowers has been just an average-hitting catcher at his best. But while Avila's best seasons in 2011 and 2012 were stellar, he hasn't been above-average at the plate the past three seasons. However, that comparison neglects the change to runs saved through pitch framing.
Avila ranked 109th last season out of 120 catchers at framing pitches, while Flowers ranked third. That has the potential to be just as big a liability for the White Sox this year as it was an asset for the Cubs last season, and I doubt there are many handicappers modeling that change.
