LAS VEGAS -- These are ESPN Chalk's weekly NFL betting recaps for every Week 15 game -- with an emphasis on the word "betting."
Sometimes it's clear from the opening kickoff that a team is going to win and/or cover the spread. Other times it looks as if one team is going to coast to victory but the other rallies, causing bettors to wonder how they could have possibly lost and leading to them crying "Bad beat!" Of course, there are also the back-and-forth, 50-50 games that are virtual coin flips.
This new column, which also will include my takeaways from each game, will separate the different kinds of point-spread results from each week and is intended to be a quick overview for those who have to work on NFL Sundays or otherwise aren't able to watch all the games.
So let's run down Sunday's Week 15 action (plus Thursday's and Saturday's games). We'll also incorporate Rufus Peabody's numbers to give an analytical look at which teams should have covered.
Note: We'll point out crazy over/under results, but this is primarily a recap of the against-the-spread results.
Bad beats (clearly wrong sides)
Green Bay (-4.5) in 30-27 non-covering win at Chicago
Packer backers had to feel they had the cover several times. Yes, the Bears did stick around in the first half and actually led 10-7, but then the Packers scored 24 unanswered points to go ahead 27-10 on Christine Michael's 42-yard TD run with 1:03 left in the third quarter. However, the Bears came all the way back to tie the score 27-27 with 1:19 to play. On the ensuing drive, Jordy Nelson broke behind the Chicago secondary and Aaron Rodgers hit him with a 60-yard bomb. Nelson slipped on the frozen tundra of Soldier Field, otherwise he could have taken it in for the spread-covering touchdown. Instead, the Packers ran down the clock and Mason Crosby kicked the game-winning (but non-covering) 32-yard FG as time expired. The Packers found a running game with Ty Montgomery (WR turned RB) rushing for 162 yards and two TDs plus Michael's big run.
Massey-Peabody numbers say: Chicago played 2 points better than Green Bay.
