Reason for optimism: Tampa wasn't nearly as bad as its record indicated last year.
Reason for pessimism: Memories of the 'Devil Rays' era of the club were evoked.
Like the Oakland Athletics, it seems like every year I'm high on the Tampa Bay Rays, at least higher than consensus. Prior to last year, it was the proper default setting. Going back to 2012, as our table below does, (and probably further back than that based on results that saw them conquering the Red Sox and Yankees), the "over" was a consistent winning ticket. That changed last year, though, as the team had a truly horrible year that recalled the dark days of the perpetual 90-plus-loss Devil Rays.
Despite a return to the AL East basement creating the look of the old Devil Rays, the 2016 Rays weren't nearly as bad as their record indicated. The "devil," it appears, wasn't in the Rays, but in the details. And the detailed data suggests Tampa's negative-41 run-differential should have led to a win total in the high-70s instead of the high-60s. They had some negative cluster luck to boot. But relying too much on those indicators misses the point that every facet of the team disappointed last year, including the once-stellar defense.
