LAS VEGAS -- Sports betting is a "what have you done for me lately?" business. Bettors are greatly influenced by what they've seen most recently.
It's not that much of a surprise that world No. 1 Dustin Johnson has been bet down to an 11-2 Masters favorite at the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook (after going as low as 5-1). World No. 2 Rory McIlroy is 7-1 along with 2015 Masters champ Jordan Spieth (8-1) as the only other golfers at single-digit odds. World No. 3 Jason Day is next at 15-1 and is mostly followed by past major winners as bettors certainly feel more comfortable backing those that have been there and done that.
One notable exception is rookie Jon Rahm at 20-1, though he fits the "recent form" category with one victory, two seconds and nine top 10s in just 17 PGA starts, plus taking Johnson to the final hole of match play in the World Golf Championships two weekends ago. He's being lauded as the sport's next superstar, but all the value has been sucked out of his odds in my opinion.
Last summer, I took over the golf major beat here at ESPN Chalk and promptly won with Johnson as my best value bet at 12-1 in the U.S. Open. I followed that up with Henrik Stenson at 25-1 in The Open Championship (aka British Open). Stenson was my third choice, but just like NASCAR, it's OK to have multiple win bets as long as the payoffs are high enough.
My goal in these sports in using around three players (sometimes four; often I've used only two) is to find players who are likely to outplay their odds and to hit enough winners to show an overall profit, which is what I've done so far.
Here are my top value plays for this weekend's Masters. Odds are from the Westgate SuperBook as of Tuesday morning, but as always shop around for the best number:
