The National League Championship Series is very straightforward, as the Los Angeles Dodgers are clearly the better team in their matchup with the Milwaukee Brewers. It is not so cut and dry in the American League Championship Series, though.
The Houston Astros might be the better team, but the Boston Red Sox are also exceptional. It's odd that Vegas is giving the Astros an implied chance of winning this series (58 percent) nearly equal to what they're giving the Dodgers (60 percent) when the talent gap is so much slimmer. Here are my best bets for the series:
Boston Red Sox (+120) vs. Houston Astros (-140)
Game 1 odds: Astros (Justin Verlander) +110 at Red Sox (Chris Sale) -120
Game 1 over/under: 8 (U -120)
In my Dodgers-Brewers preview, I noted that if you were to judge the teams by their regular-season run differential, you'd expect the Dodgers to have won at least 10 more games than the Brewers. According to Baseball Prospectus, the gap between the Astros and Red Sox is nearly half that.
