The 2019 MLB season is upon us sooner than ever before, which means I have already made my season win total and futures bets that I believe offer value. While I bet both football and basketball (college and pro) more heavily than baseball year-to-year, my baseball futures have yielded my biggest lifetime return on investment.
There are bets involving nine different baseball teams I like this season ranging from win totals and division and pennant winners, to even a couple of Cy Young futures that I believe will have a good opportunity to cash come October. I also included my win projections for all 30 teams for reference, even if I didn't find an edge or discrepancy between them and the market.
Win totals from the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook. As always, shop around for the best price.
Washington Nationals
2019 season win total: 89 | My projection: 91.32 | Divisional odds: +225
2018: Wins: 82 | Pythagorean wins: 90 | BaseRuns wins: 89
I'm typically looking for a three-game discrepancy between my win projections for a team and the market. Now that the Phillies have signed Bryce Harper, the adjustments to win totals and division prices in the NL East have been too extreme -- especially for the two favorites. I'll be monitoring the season win totals throughout the month, and if Washington's total drops another half game to 88.5, that will be my buy point for an over bet.
I have the Nationals winning the division 32 percent of the time (or +213), so at +225 this price is pretty fair. There are other sportsbooks that moved division prices more drastically, however, and I got involved
