Eliminator Challenge is one of the simplest and fun games during the NFL season. Pick one team to win each week. If that team wins, you advance to the next week. Lose once, and you're out. The only caveat is you cannot pick the same team twice.
While it sounds simple, getting a perfect season is always more difficult than it looks. The key is to find a good balance of picking winners while also keeping quality options open for future weeks.
Week 1 always has the most uncertainty and is one of the hardest weeks to pick. Last year, underdogs actually had a winning record (9-7) for the first time since 1983. And over the last five seasons, underdogs win 40% of the time in Week 1, compared to 33% of the time in the rest of the season. That has led to 25% of entrants being knocked out in Week 1 last season and 35% getting knocked out in 2020.
This year is especially tricky on paper because almost all of the biggest favorites are on the road. But historically, big road favorites have done better in Week 1 than big home favorites. Over the last 15 seasons, home favorites of at least 6 points are 53-14 (.791) while similar road favorites are 13-1 (.929).
As of Wednesday morning, the 49ers, Colts and Ravens are all 7-point favorites, tied for the largest favorites this week. However, the Ravens are currently being selected more often than the 49ers and Colts combined. With that being the case, and the Ravens having several good matchups in the future, it makes sense to save Lamar Jackson and company for later.
That leaves the 49ers as my favorite pick this week.
