I felt like a broken record this offseason: Top 3 vs. the field, top 3 vs. the field, top 3 vs. the field. In my preseason SP+ projections, the top three teams -- Alabama, Georgia and Ohio State -- were so far ahead of the pack that there was the same distance between No. 3 Ohio State and No. 4 Oklahoma as there was between Oklahoma and No. 18 NC State.
One week into the 2022 season, that picture is still mostly the same, as Ohio State's rating rose a bit following a home win over Notre Dame. But Alabama and Georgia both saw their ratings rise a lot following Saturday wins over Utah State and Oregon by a combined 104-3. They treated decent teams like FCS also-rans, and their ratings reflect it. No. 2 Georgia is now 10.9 points ahead of No. 5 Texas A&M -- the same distance separating A&M from No. 27 UCF. The teams that finished last season in the national title game are starting out well ahead of the pack. We'll see if it lasts.
What is SP+? In a single sentence, it's a tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency. I created the system at Football Outsiders in 2008, and as my experience with both college football and its stats has grown, I have made quite a few tweaks to the system.
It is, as always, important to note that SP+ is intended to be predictive and forward-facing. It is not a résumé ranking that gives credit for big wins or particularly brave scheduling -- no good predictive system is. It is simply a measure of the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football. If you're lucky or unimpressive in a win, your rating will probably fall. If you're strong and unlucky in a loss, it will probably rise.
(Also, as you'll see, special teams don't carry much weight this early in the season -- almost none, in fact. That's why the range between good and bad is almost nonexistent this week.)
Here are the full rankings, along with a breakdown of the week's biggest movers.
