Below are updated 2020 (or shall we say, 2020-21) SP+ ratings. They are based on the same factors as the February projections -- returning production, recent history and recruiting -- and they are updated for all transfers and opt-outs as of the afternoon of August 31. Some notes:
Yes, I'm including all 130 FBS teams here, even the ones who have postponed their seasons. It's good from a continuity/normalcy standpoint, plus, again, these other teams still might play games. As the fall season unfolds, the weekly SP+ ratings will include only fall teams, as the AP has chosen with its own poll. But we start with everyone.
I'm including both the number of scheduled games and average projected wins for each team planning on playing this fall. Those projected wins are based on teams' win probabilities for each game, and those probabilities are using only a one-point home-field advantage for reasons discussed here .
These average win totals are, by nature, extremely conservative. If you have an 80% chance of winning, it counts as 0.8 wins, and 60% counts as 0.6 wins. Using these average totals, you'll see no one projected to go unbeaten or winless. Alabama is a projected favorite of at least 9.5 points in nine of 10 games, but the Crimson Tide's average win total is only 8.0. Please don't yell at me personally on Twitter for "predicting" them to go 8-2, then demand to know who I think they're losing to. It's just the way these projections work.
Without further ado, here are the updated numbers.
Overall SP+ Rankings Team Proj. SP+ Offense Defense Fall games (Avg. wins) 1. Ohio St. 30.1 44.2 (3) 14.1 (4) N/A 2. Alabama 29.0 46.4 (1) 17.4 (19) 10 (8.0) 3. Clemson 26.0 42.5 (4) 16.5 (12) 11 (9.5) 4. Georgia 25.5 32.3 (29) 6.8 (1) 10 (7.6) 5. Florida 23.8 37.8 (11) 14.1 (3) 10 (7.5) 6. Oklahoma 22.7 44.6 (2) 21.9 (36) 10 (8.3) 7. Penn St. 22.3 39.4 (7) 17.1 (17) N/A 8. Wisconsin 21.6 35.9 (17) 14.3 (5) N/A 9. Notre Dame 20.5 38.1 (10) 17.6 (20) 11 (8.7) 10. Texas A&M 20.2 36.8 (14) 16.6 (13) 10 (6.6) 11. Auburn 20.0 35.0 (21) 14.9 (8) 10 (6.2) 12. Oregon 19.7 31.8 (36) 12.1 (2) N/A 13. LSU 18.5 37.3 (13) 18.8 (24) 10 (6.5) 14. Texas 16.5 40.8 (5) 24.3 (46) 10 (7.3) 15. Washington 16.4 32.2 (31) 15.9 (9) N/A 16. USC 15.8 39.5 (6) 23.7 (42) N/A 17. UCF 15.4 34.6 (23) 19.3 (29) 9 (7.1) 18. N. Carolina 15.3 39.3 (8) 24.0 (45) 11 (8.0) 19. Tennessee 15.0 29.8 (50) 14.8 (6) 10 (5.3) 20. Minnesota 14.3 38.8 (9) 24.5 (48) N/A 21. Michigan 13.4 31.0 (41) 17.7 (21) N/A 22. Kentucky 13.0 32.1 (34) 19.1 (26) 10 (5.0) 23. Miami 12.9 28.9 (56) 16.0 (10) 11 (6.9) 24. Oklahoma St. 12.7 34.9 (22) 22.2 (38) 10 (6.4) 25. Memphis 12.5 36.3 (15) 23.8 (44) 10 (7.4) 26. Utah 11.9 36.1 (16) 24.3 (47) N/A 27. Florida St. 11.7 32.5 (28) 20.7 (33) 11 (6.5) 28. Iowa 11.3 28.4 (59) 17.1 (15) N/A 29. Iowa St. 10.9 29.8 (51) 19.0 (25) 10 (5.9) 30. Baylor 10.7 34.5 (24) 23.7 (43) 10 (6.0) 31. TCU 10.0 30.2 (47) 20.2 (31) 10 (5.7) 32. Nebraska 9.9 35.6 (19) 25.7 (51) N/A 33. Indiana 9.8 32.0 (35) 22.2 (37) N/A 34. Cincinnati 9.5 28.6 (58) 19.1 (27) 10 (7.1) 35. Va. Tech 9.3 29.9 (49) 20.6 (32) 11 (6.5) 36. S. Carolina 9.0 25.6 (81) 16.6 (14) 10 (4.0) 37. Boise St. 8.6 31.6 (37) 23.0 (40) N/A 38. Ole Miss 7.8 31.3 (38) 23.5 (41) 10 (4.1) 39. App. St. 7.5 35.4 (20) 27.8 (64) 11 (9.0) 40. Pittsburgh 7.4 22.3 (101) 14.9 (7) 11 (5.8) 41. Louisville 7.3 37.6 (12) 30.3 (84) 11 (6.0) 42. Arizona St. 7.3 26.8 (73) 19.5 (30) N/A 43. Virginia 5.9 28.2 (60) 22.3 (39) 11 (5.8) 44. Missouri 4.9 22.0 (103) 17.1 (16) 10 (3.6) 45. Stanford 4.4 31.1 (40) 26.6 (60) N/A 46. California 4.3 30.1 (48) 25.7 (53) N/A 47. Louisiana 4.2 34.2 (25) 30.1 (81) 11 (8.0) 48. Miss. St. 4.2 33.6 (26) 29.5 (73) 10 (3.4) 49. Michigan St. 4.0 21.8 (105) 17.8 (22) N/A 50. Purdue 3.7 32.2 (30) 28.6 (69) N/A 51. BYU 3.3 29.8 (52) 26.4 (58) 8 (5.9) 52. Northwestern 3.0 19.3 (114) 16.3 (11) N/A 53. SMU 3.0 33.5 (27) 30.5 (86) 12 (7.4) 54. Ga. Tech 2.9 24.5 (90) 21.6 (35) 11 (4.4) 55. Wash. St. 2.3 35.8 (18) 33.5 (101) N/A 56. Kansas St. 1.9 28.0 (64) 26.1 (56) 10 (4.1) 57. WKU 1.9 20.3 (111) 18.4 (23) 11 (7.3) 58. Houston 1.1 31.1 (39) 30.0 (78) 10 (4.8) 59. UCLA 0.8 30.8 (42) 29.9 (77) N/A 60. Texas Tech 0.7 30.2 (46) 29.5 (74) 10 (4.2) 61. Illinois 0.7 26.4 (76) 25.7 (52) N/A 62. Navy 0.1 29.7 (53) 29.5 (75) 11 (5.9) 63. Tulane -0.5 27.3 (70) 27.7 (63) 11 (5.7) 64. NC St. -0.5 26.0 (79) 26.6 (59) 11 (4.6) 65. Ohio -1.1 32.1 (33) 33.1 (98) N/A 66. UAB -1.1 18.0 (119) 19.1 (28) 11 (7.3) 67. Boston Coll. -1.4 30.6 (43) 32.0 (95) 11 (3.9) 68. Temple -1.5 24.5 (89) 26.0 (55) 8 (3.2) 69. W. Virginia -1.6 26.4 (77) 28.0 (66) 10 (3.7) 70. Oregon St. -2.0 28.0 (63) 30.0 (79) N/A 71. Duke -2.3 19.3 (115) 21.6 (34) 11 (4.2) 72. SDSU -2.3 14.9 (124) 17.2 (18) N/A 73. Buffalo -2.6 24.9 (85) 27.5 (62) N/A 74. Marshall -2.8 24.6 (88) 27.4 (61) 10 (6.1) 75. Arkansas -3.2 24.8 (87) 28.0 (65) 10 (1.5) 76. Colorado St. -4.2 25.9 (80) 30.1 (83) N/A 77. Maryland -4.2 24.0 (92) 28.3 (67) N/A 78. USF -4.3 20.7 (108) 24.9 (49) 11 (4.4) 79. Ball St. -4.3 27.4 (69) 31.7 (92) N/A 80. Troy -4.7 29.5 (54) 34.1 (103) 12 (7.3) 81. Tulsa -4.7 26.3 (78) 31.0 (88) 10 (3.6) 82. WMU -5.2 28.0 (65) 33.2 (99) N/A 83. Wyoming -5.4 19.7 (113) 25.1 (50) N/A 84. Ga. Southern -5.6 23.3 (98) 28.9 (70) 11 (6.5) 85. Colorado -5.8 26.9 (72) 32.7 (97) N/A 86. CMU -5.8 24.3 (91) 30.1 (82) N/A 87. Syracuse -5.9 25.2 (82) 31.1 (90) 11 (3.4) 88. Wake Forest -5.9 20.5 (109) 26.4 (57) 11 (3.2) 89. La. Tech -6.4 25.0 (84) 31.3 (91) 11 (6.7) 90. Toledo -6.5 28.1 (61) 34.5 (105) N/A 91. Arkansas St. -6.6 32.1 (32) 38.7 (119) 12 (6.1) 92. So. Miss -6.7 23.7 (96) 30.4 (85) 12 (7.4) 93. Hawaii -6.8 30.5 (45) 37.3 (114) N/A 94. Arizona -7.4 30.6 (44) 38.0 (118) NAA 95. FAU -7.6 23.4 (97) 31.0 (89) 9 (4.4) 96. Fresno St. -8.0 28.1 (62) 36.1 (107) N/A 97. Utah St. -8.1 23.8 (95) 32.0 (94) N/A 98. Charlotte -8.2 29.0 (55) 37.3 (115) 11 (4.8) 99. Army -8.5 26.8 (74) 35.3 (106) 12 (6.7) 100. ECU -8.8 27.5 (68) 36.2 (109) 10 (3.1) 101. Air Force -8.9 21.8 (104) 30.7 (87) 2 (0.8) 102. SJSU -9.1 27.8 (67) 36.9 (113) N/A 103. Georgia St. -9.3 27.3 (71) 36.6 (110) 10 (4.5) 104. FIU -9.4 19.9 (112) 29.2 (72) 8 (3.9) 105. Nevada -9.7 20.3 (110) 30.0 (80) N/A 106. Rutgers -10.2 18.8 (116) 29.0 (71) N/A 107. MTSU -10.3 28.8 (57) 39.1 (121) 10 (4.3) 108. Miami-OH -11.1 20.8 (107) 31.9 (93) N/A 109. Coastal Caro. -11.3 24.8 (86) 36.2 (108) 10 (4.2) 110. Vanderbilt -11.6 14.2 (127) 25.8 (54) 10 (0.8) 111. Liberty -11.8 25.0 (83) 36.8 (112) 10 (4.8) 112. Kent St. -12.4 26.6 (75) 39.0 (120) N/A 113. EMU -12.5 27.8 (66) 40.3 (125) N/A 114. N. Texas -12.6 21.6 (106) 34.2 (104) 11 (5.2) 115. Kansas -12.7 24.0 (93) 36.6 (111) 10 (1.6) 116. Rice -14.2 14.3 (126) 28.5 (68) 8 (3.4) 117. NIU -14.6 18.1 (118) 32.7 (96) N/A 118. ODU -15.9 14.0 (128) 29.9 (76) N/A 119. S. Alabama -16.4 17.3 (122) 33.7 (102) 11 (3.4) 120. UL-Monroe -16.5 23.9 (94) 40.4 (126) 11 (3.3) 121. New Mexico -17.3 22.9 (100) 40.2 (123) N/A 122. UNLV -17.3 22.9 (99) 40.3 (124) N/A 123. UTSA -18.9 22.3 (102) 41.1 (127) 12 (4.2) 124. Texas St. -19.2 18.3 (117) 37.5 (116) 12 (2.8) 125. Akron -21.0 12.5 (129) 33.5 (100) N/A 126. UConn -22.3 17.7 (120) 40.0 (122) N/A 127. BGSU -23.1 14.5 (125) 37.5 (117) N/A 128. UTEP -29.9 15.4 (123) 45.3 (129) 9 (1.0) 129. UMass -30.5 17.3 (121) 47.7 (130) N/A 130. NMSU -31.5 12.2 (130) 43.8 (128) N/A
