It feels like I begin my college football preview series each year by telling you how hard life is in the MAC. And it is! The budgets are mostly small by FBS standards, and a lot of the schools are clustered pretty closely together with no inherent recruiting advantages to be found.
The MAC's average returning production this year is 10 percentage points below the national average, just as it was 12 percentage points underwater last year. And after averaging an SP+ ranking of 92.0 from 2004 to '18, MAC teams have been at 103.4 since, not including the strange, abbreviated 2020 season. Last year's average ranking of 104.8 was its second worst in that span, too, and that wasn't only because new addition UMass went 0-12 and ranked 136th out of 136. (That didn't help, obviously.) Only one team finished higher than 78th, and after producing four wins over power conference teams in 2023 and three more in 2024, MAC teams went just 1-25 against the P4 last season.
This offseason, one of the conference's most proven head coaches, Toledo's Jason Candle, left for another mid-major (UConn), and one of its most proven programs (Northern Illinois) left for the Mountain West. So yeah, life's still pretty hard in the land of MACtion.
You know what? It's time to celebrate that. Just as Rice (occasionally) plays Texas, the MAC plays FBS football because it's hard! This season, Kent State and Ball State will play Ohio State, Central Michigan will play both Miamis (the Ohio and Florida versions), Western Michigan will play Michigan, Buffalo will play Penn State, and on and on. And even if it's another tough year, some MAC team will likely take down some power conference foe, and then one will slug through a gauntlet of midweek November night games, likely in unfriendly weather, to win the conference title. Sounds hard? You're damn right!
Better yet, Sacramento State -- yes, from Sacramento, California -- saw this hard, Midwestern life and thought, "I want that!" The Hornets are hopping up from FCS to replace Northern Illinois (now in the Mountain West) this season, and while this makes no geographic sense and little financial sense, they're still doing it! And it'll be hard!
By god, we're starting the 2026 preview series on an optimistic note! It's time to preview the MAC!
2025 recap
The Jason Candle era at Toledo wrapped up in apt fashion in 2025, with a good Rockets team missing the MAC championship game. For four of the last five seasons, Candle's Toledo finished with the conference's highest SP+ rating, but the Rockets made the title game only twice in those four years and only won the title once. They always managed to slip up when they couldn't; last season, they won six MAC games by an average score of 36-5, which drove a top-50 SP+ finish. But they lost to Western Michigan and rival Bowling Green by a combined six points and missed the title game once more.
The Rockets' loss was WMU's gain. The Broncos began the season 0-3, but an early-season upset of Toledo bought them time, and they cranked into gear late. They went 4-0 in November MACtion to reach the MAC championship, where they avenged a loss to Miami (Ohio), 23-13. Two weeks later, they made Kennesaw State's maiden bowl voyage a humbling one, pummeling the Owls 41-6 in the Myrtle Beach Bowl. (Hey, who among us hasn't face-planted in Myrtle Beach in our lives?)
WMU finished the season comfortably ahead of the pack, and with the same steady defense and special teams as always, Miami was in the top tier as well. Can anyone else join the Redhawks and Broncos in the MAC's top tier? Can Toledo stay there?
Continuity table
The continuity table looks at each team's returning production levels (offense, defense and overall), the number of 2025 FBS starts from both returning and incoming players and the approximate number of redshirt freshmen on the roster heading into 2026. (Why "approximate"? Because schools sometimes make it very difficult to ascertain who redshirted and who didn't.) Continuity is an increasingly difficult art in roster management, but some teams pull it off better than others.
Last year's title game participants rank second and third in the conference in returning production and are two of just three teams to return at least 125 of their starts from last season. Meanwhile, last year's three other top-100 teams (Toledo, Ohio and Buffalo) all rank near the bottom of the nation in returning production.
If you're looking for a 2026 dark horse, what about Eastern Michigan? The Eagles boast by far the best continuity in the conference, and while it's continuity from a 4-8 team, they did improve late last season.
2026 projections
As you would probably expect, Miami and WMU start out atop the pack, while a cluster of six teams is separated by just 3.6 points behind them. One of those teams will probably win its close games and threaten to reach the title game, but it's clear who has earned the right to start out as favorites.
Outside the top two, Toledo probably has the best schedule for making a run, but with an almost entirely new roster, new coach Mike Jacobs faces quite the learning curve.
Five best games of 2026
Here are the five conference games that feature (a) the highest combined SP+ ratings for both teams and (b) a projected scoring margin under 10 points.
Western Michigan at Buffalo (Oct. 3). Buffalo's Pete Lembo dipped heavily into the smaller-school ranks to plump up his depth chart, and we'll find out early on if the gambit was successful.
Western Michigan at Central Michigan (Oct. 17) and Miami (Ohio) at Central Michigan (Oct. 24). CMU's offense crumbled late in 2025 but boasts one of the most proven lines in the conference this fall. The Chippewas will get a couple of huge October opportunities to insert themselves into the title race.
Western Michigan at Toledo (Oct. 24). In addition to Miami-CMU, Week 8 will give us another solid "prove it" game with Jacobs' revamped Rockets hosting the defending champs.
Miami (Ohio) at Western Michigan (Nov. 24). Having the two most likely title game participants playing the week before the title game admittedly isn't the greatest scheduling in the world. But this could potentially end up a pretty huge elimination game, too.
My five favorite transfers
RB Rodney Nelson, Miami (Ohio). The junior rushed for 1,802 yards and 18 touchdowns at Monmouth last season. He had three 200-yard games, including back-to-backs at Hampton and Bryant, and he'll run behind probably the most proven offensive line in the conference. I'll be shocked if he's not a star.
DE Andrew Zock, Toledo. The Southern Conference's defensive player of the year as a sophomore, Zock is the headliner for a large contingent of former Mercer players joining new head coach Mike Jacobs at the Glass Bowl. He had 20 TFLs and 11.5 sacks in 2025.
CB Eli Thompson, Ohio. As a 5-foot-10, 185-pound sophomore at Holy Cross, Thompson defended 14 passes (four interceptions, 10 breakups), but his havoc potential didn't stop there: He also made 5.5 tackles for loss with a sack. The bar's high for Ohio corners, but Thompson's ceiling is, too.
DE KJ Burley, Western Michigan. FBS coaches are starting to realize that there's a lot of talent at the NAIA level. Burley recorded 55 tackles at Keiser University last season, and 15 were behind the line. He made 5.5 sacks, and he could team beautifully with another smaller-schooler, Long Island's Scoop Gardner Jr., to give the defending MAC champs a major pass rushing boost.
QB Tyler Mizzell, Ball State. I'm not sure he'll win the starting job -- he has to beat out former SMU and Texas State QB Keldric Luster -- but I love that BSU saw potential in Mizzell despite Concord going 4-7 in Division II. Caught in constant track meets, Mizzell threw for 300-plus yards five times and rushed for 277 combined yards over a three-game span late in the year, too. He's a big-play hunter.
Conference title (and, therefore, CFP) contenders
Miami (Ohio) Redhawks
Head coach: Chuck Martin (13th year, 72-74 overall)
2026 projection: 82nd in SP+, 8.4 average wins (6.2 in the MAC)
Don't be fooled by Chuck Martin's losing record. He has built a hell of a sturdy program in Oxford. And he took his time doing it.
Miami, 2014-15: 5-19 record (0.208 win pct.), 120.0 average SP+ ranking
Miami, 2016-22: 40-40 record (0.500), 93.9 average SP+ ranking
Miami, 2023-25: 27-15 record (0.643), 69.7 average SP+ ranking
In last year's MAC preview, I wrote that we were going to learn a lot about the Redhawks' floor in 2025, as they had to replace basically their entire starting offense and half the defense.
Evidently that floor is "seven wins and MAC runner-up." Not bad. The defense did slip a hair, but despite only two players starting all 14 games (and only two more starting 13), the Redhawks still ranked a solid 54th in defensive SP+. The offense, meanwhile, scored 37 or more points five times before tumbling in the postseason. A five-game midseason winning streak drove the Redhawks' third straight title game appearance.
Since Martin hired defensive coordinator Bill Brechin in 2022, Miami has averaged a defensive SP+ ranking of 43.8. Considering portal losses, that's awfully impressive. This year Brechin must replace ace pass rusher Adam Trick (Texas Tech) and others, but there's a solid core here, with returnees like linebacker Malcolm McCain, defensive end Bai Jobe and a loaded set of corners led by Mychal Yharbrough and Kaleb Martin. Miami's exciting transfer haul included two FBS starters, as well, in end Mikah Coleman (Cincinnati) and linebacker Blayne Myrick (South Alabama).
As always with Miami, the questions are on offense. New coordinator (and former Redhawks QB) Gus Ragland must replace last year's top two QBs, top rusher and two of three primary wideouts. The QB battle between redshirt freshmen Thomas Gotkowski (575 passing yards last year) and David McComb (Kansas transfer) and Division II transfer Caleb Heavner (Fort Hays State) didn't produce a clear winner this spring, and the receiving corps returns only one player with more than 10 catches. Slot receivers Keith Reynolds and Lynel Billups-Williams are both excellent return men, and sophomore Braylon Isom has good size.
The QB of choice will have solid dual-threat capabilities and should be able to lean on a strong running game. Big sophomore D'Shawntae Jones, a short-yardage specialist in 2025, is joined by transfers Cade Yacamelli (Wisconsin) and FCS star Rodney Nelson (Monmouth), and the line both returns four starters and adds all-MAC tackle Evan Malcore (NIU).
Miami is investing ambitiously, and with Candle gone, Martin's program is by far the most proven in this hard-living conference. Obviously a quarterback will need to come through at some point, but give Martin a strong defense, sturdy special teams and a physical run game, and he'll probably figure out how to win games.
Western Michigan Broncos
Head coach: Lance Taylor (fourth year, 20-19 overall)
2026 projection: 94th in SP+, 6.8 average wins (5.1 in the MAC)
When October ended, WMU was 4-4 and 97th in SP+. That comfortably exceeded the Broncos' No. 118 projection, but they weren't exactly standing out. But after tight home wins over Central Michigan and Ohio, they comfortably handled both NIU and EMU to secure a surprising MAC championship berth. And then they kept getting better, easing to a 10-point win over Miami in Detroit and crushing Kennesaw State. They finished 78th in SP+ with their first top-50 defensive ranking since 2016.
The good news: WMU is indeed second in the conference in returning production, which is a good place to be as the defending champ. Quarterback Broc Lowry is back, the offensive line returns three seniors (including all-conference tackle Chad Schuster), and a dynamite secondary returns five of last year's top seven.
The bad news: Maybe the two biggest reasons for last year's surge -- defensive coordinator Chris O'Leary and defensive end Nadame Tucker (20.5 TFLs, 14.5 sacks) -- both are now with the Los Angeles Chargers. For that matter, all nine of the linemen and linebackers with 200-plus snaps are gone. Nickel Joshua Franklin and corner Jarvarius Sims were particularly awesome in 2025, but will they be as strong with a brand new front six?
This was a defense-driven surge. The offense ranked just 107th in SP+, and the Broncos scored 24 or fewer points in half their wins. New coordinator Greer Martini was last year's linebackers coach and certainly earned the promotion, but he'll have to coax big things from transfer pass rushers DeJuan Echoles Jr. (Ball State), Austin Alexander (North Carolina) and small schoolers KJ Burley (Keiser University) and Scoop Gardner Jr. (LIU). I'm pretty intrigued by Burley and Gardner, who boast decent size and combined for 29.5 TFLs last season.
If the offense has to pull its weight more in 2026, that might be all right. Lowry is a decent efficiency guy who figured out how to avoid negative plays as the season went on (granted, while averaging a paltry 10.9 yards per completion), but running back Jalen Buckley was as responsible as anyone for last year's late surge.
Buckley, first 10 games: 112 carries, 433 yards (3.9 per carry), 3 TD
Buckley, last four games: 67 carries, 570 yards (8.5 per carry), 6 TD
When Buckley averaged over 5.0 yards per carry, WMU averaged 33 points per game; when he didn't, the Broncos averaged 20.2 against FBS competition. If Schuster and big guards Gavin Dabo and Hunter Whitenack are clearing the way for Buckley and two backup former blue-chippers (Cole Cabana and incoming Arkansas transfer AJ Green), WMU could establish a solid ball control routine while the new defense gets its footing. And hey, no one knows better than WMU that the goal is to peak in November.
A couple of breaks away from a run
Toledo Rockets
Head coach: Mike Jacobs (first year)
2026 projection: 108th in SP+, 6.9 average wins (5.1 in the MAC)
I love it when a school hires a guy who just wins. Mike Jacobs hasn't coached at the FBS level since 2007, when he was a GA at Purdue, and there's nothing guaranteeing that he'll find a smooth transition to FBS ball with the 27 transfers he's brought from the smaller-school ranks. But he won 42 games in four years at Notre Dame College, reaching the D-II semifinals in 2018. Then he won 29 in three years at Lenoir-Rhyne, reaching another semifinal in 2023. Then he went to Mercer, which had one FCS playoff appearance and one 10-win season to its name, and won 19 games with two playoff appearances in 2024-25. He's been a head coach since 2016, and the next losing record he suffers will be his first. For that matter, the next losing record Toledo suffers will be its first since 2009. What will the combination of a winning coach and winning program produce? Wins, probably.
That said, this roster is far less proven than either its school or its coach. And looking at recent history doesn't do much when you're talking about a team that might have 21 new starters. Holdovers include likely 2026 starting quarterback John Alan Richter, three senior offensive linemen (most important: starting left tackle Stephen Gales), linebacker Langston Long and safety Nicholas Thompson; they should be keys to immediate success. But Jacobs' small-school transfer gambit will determine whether the Rockets contend for a spot in Detroit.
Fourteen of those smaller-school guys came from Mercer, including a 900-yard rusher (230-pound junior CJ Miller), an 800-yard receiver (Adjatay Dabbs), a wonderfully disruptive defensive end (Andrew Zock), two linebackers who combined for 19 TFLs (Julian Fox and Isaac Prince), three DBs who combined for five interceptions and 20 pass breakups (safety Kaleb Hutchinson and corners Donovan Watkins and KJ Thomas) and a kicker who went 7-for-8 on field goals of 40-plus yards (Reice Griffith).
Add in other proven players such as quarterback Khamoni Robinson (Lenoir-Rhyne), receiver Kalvin Gilbert Jr. (Southeast Missouri State), O-lineman Luke Rector (Gardner-Webb) and corner Cam Jones (Holy Cross), and Jacobs should have solid competition at most positions and a pretty proven roster overall. It's just that almost no one has proved themselves in the Glass Bowl. Or in FBS.
Buffalo Bulls
Head coach: Pete Lembo (third year, 14-11 overall)
2026 projection: 110th in SP+, 7.0 average wins (4.6 in the MAC)
Pete Lembo is one of the MAC's most proven coaches. The 56-year-old is one of only four to have been an FBS head coach for 40-plus games, and of those four, at 47-40, he's the only one with a winning record. After leading both Lehigh and Elon to the FCS playoffs in the 2000s, he won 33 games at Ball State, including a 19-7 run in 2012-13, and after bouncing around for a while as a higher-level assistant, he's now 14-11 in two seasons at Buffalo. The offense collapsed last season -- the Bulls were unbeaten when scoring at least 28 points but only did so five times -- and now he has two new coordinators and massive turnover to deal with basically everywhere but the secondary. Such is life.
Like basically every team we've talked about so far, Buffalo indeed returns a solid secondary but will be reliant on smaller-school stars for pass rushing. Nickel SaVeon Brown is excellent against both run and pass, and cornerback Kobi Blackwell flashed star power last season as a freshman. But D-II transfers Sedrick Vessah (California-PA) and Logan Goodwin (IUP) must immediately translate their 26 combined TFLs to higher-level production, and linebackers Zach Bergmann (Missouri Southern) and Joey Cheshire (Cornell) must patrol sideline to sideline.
The offense needed a talent upgrade after falling to 118th in offensive SP+, but Lembo didn't overdo it in the portal. It would be great if Wingate QB transfer Elijah Holmes brought his D-II production with him (he threw for 3,040 yards and 24 TDs last season), but he'll have to beat out redshirt freshman Jason Wright and holdover Mason Cumbie. New coordinator Tony Tokarz, formerly Florida State QBs coach, will be reliant on holdovers in the skill corps, too, despite the loss of last year's leading rusher and two leading receivers. Senior receiver Jasaiah Gathings is a decent possession option, but the new starting QB will be reliant on exciting but mostly unproven youngsters like sophomores Patrick Clacks III and Tyrell Simmons Jr. and redshirt freshman Dwayne Early Jr. Lembo did add three transfer linemen to account for the loss of five of last year's top six, but guard Alex Heininger and Bucknell transfer Nathan Natoli might be the only seniors on the two-deep up front.
Central Michigan Chippewas
Head coach: Matt Drinkall (second year, 7-6 overall)
2026 projection: 113th in SP+, 6.1 average wins (4.6 in the MAC)
In Matt Drinkall's first season, Central Michigan controlled the controllables. Jim Chapin's offense was basically built around getting the ball quickly out of Joe Labas' hands, and Sean Cronin's defense made the most of a strong secondary, but for the most part, a CMU game was decided by one key question: Is the opponent good?
Against four SP+ top-60 opponents, the Chippewas got walloped by an average score of 41-8. Labas averaged just 9.9 yards per completion, and the defense allowed 6.9 yards per play. Against everyone else, however, CMU went 7-2 with two tight losses and an average score of 29-16. Labas averaged 14.2 yards per completion, and the defense allowed 4.7 yards per play.
Almost everyone produces better stats against worse teams, but this was extreme. And if CMU replicates this output in 2026, it will be a pretty good season: They play only one team projected above 68th and eight projected 106th or worse.
The offense is far more experienced this year. Of the nine linemen who started at least once, seven return, and Drinkall added three FCS starters. Leading receivers Langston Lewis and Tommy McIntosh are back -- Lewis was excellent down the stretch -- and while there will be two new starters in the backfield, quarterback Angel Flores was frequently used as a mobile alternative to Labas last season, and running back Brock Townsend was a solid freshman.
The offense could easily improve, but the defense will probably regress. Fifteen defenders saw at least 250 snaps, and only two return. Defensive end Korver Demma and nickel Jalon Jackson are solid building blocks, but Drinkall brought in six transfers and five JUCOs, and a lot of them will need to produce quickly. I'm intrigued by the sophomore class, though: End JJ Douglas, tackle Quavion Bird and linebacker Victor Earl were all strong on limited snaps, and Drinkall did particularly well in grabbing sophomore corner Donavan Philord (Campbell). Junior defensive end Hunter Zirkle (Cumberlands) could be an exciting addition, too, after recording 16 TFLs, 10 sacks and five forced fumbles at the NAIA level. There will be almost no seniors on the two-deep, so it's a good defense to build on, but offense will have to carry heavy weight in 2026.
Ohio Bobcats
Head coach: John Hauser (first year)
2026 projection: 117th in SP+, 6.4 average wins (4.5 in the MAC)
How much change can a culture handle? When Frank Solich's sterling 16-year tenure at Ohio ended in 2021, Ohio suffered only a temporary blip. The Bobcats won 31 games under Tim Albin from 2022-24, with two MAC championship game appearances and one title. When Albin left for Charlotte in 2025, he was succeeded by Brian Smith, and Ohio won another nine games. But Smith was fired for misconduct in December. Now John Hauser becomes the Bobcats' fourth head coach of the 2020s.
On paper, Hauser certainly makes sense as a MAC head coach. He spent eight years at Miami (Ohio), then spent four at Ohio, the last two as coordinator of a strong defense. But this has just been so much change, and that's before we get to the almost total overhaul on the field.
The offense returns players who combined for just 11 starts in 2025, and they're all receivers (Dom Dorwart, Max Rodarte and Eian Pugh) who caught 24 passes between them. Hauser brought in 11 transfers, but only three -- quarterback Matt Vezza (New Hampshire), running back Victor Rosa (UConn), lineman CJ Dawson II (Gardner-Webb) -- have any serious track record. Rosa and junior Duncan Brune could form a solid rushing duo, and if redshirt freshman Preston Bowman, a Kentucky transfer, translates a good spring into a good fall, the starting receivers could be strong. But the offensive line is still terribly unproven, and whether it's veteran Nick Poulos or Vezza -- Poulos held the edge in spring ball -- the starting QB won't have much depth to lean on.
The defense has better continuity. Linebackers Jack Fries, Michael Molnar and Charlie Christopher are excellent, four of last year's top five tackles return, and safety DJ Walker is as good against the run as the pass. Coordinator Kurt Mattix returns to Athens after a year with Albin at Charlotte, and while the secondary lost four of five starters, corner Kendall Bannister could be ready for a star turn, and I love the additions of corner Eli Thompson (Holy Cross) and safety Darren James-Hamilton (Elon). With a friendly schedule and a defense that might still hold up, Ohio could weather another coaching change and remain a contender. But I'm a little concerned.
Bowling Green Falcons
Head coach: Eddie George (second year, 4-8 overall)
2026 projection: 116th in SP+, 5.3 average wins (4.5 in the MAC)
I'm not sure this makes sense, but Bowling Green was pretty good for a pretty terrible team last season. (I promise I'm not just saying that because of Pudge.) Eddie George's Falcons beat Toledo and Liberty and treated UMass with appropriate disdain in a 31-point win. That they suffered three one-score losses also suggests that their problems were more marginal than fundamental. The defense allowed a respectable 23.1 points per game after September, and end Myles Bradley, tackle Eriq George, linebacker Dorian Pringle, safety Kal-El Pascal and super-active corner JoJo Johnson give them a more proven and disruptive core than most MAC units.
To have hope for 2026, however, you have to talk about potential more than proof. George signed maybe the conference's most exciting transfer and freshman class, but while he did grab a few successful smaller-school guys like everyone else -- quarterback Jay Kastantin (Assumption), running back Ke'Marion Baldwin (Charleston Southern), receiver Isaiah Dawson (Richmond) and corner Tomondrey Braxton (NC Central), plus a solid mid-major starter in nickel Armahn Hale (New Mexico State) -- he also aimed for unproven upside like that of quarterback Austin Novosad (Oregon). This team will look the part athletically, and the defense should have some spice. We'll see if the offense can actually score points.
Longtime BGSU assistant Greg Nosal takes over as coordinator, but players responsible for only 11 total starts return. Sophomore running back Austyn Dendy is a punisher -- he played only five games but rushed for 100 in three and averaged 3.3 yards per carry after contact -- and sophomore quarterback Hunter Najm had two good starts to one terrible one late in the season. Between Najm, Novosad and Kastantin, a solid starter should emerge, but both the line and receiving corps will be terribly raw. The receiving corps has potential, especially from incoming freshmen, but no one on the roster caught more than five FBS passes last season.
It took a little while for George to build any serious traction at Tennessee State, and his Falcons might not be ready for anything major in Year 2 either. But if the offense shows any life, there are wins for the taking.
Eastern Michigan Eagles
Head coach: Chris Creighton (13th year, 61-83 overall)
2026 projection: 121st in SP+, 6.0 average wins (4.3 in the MAC)
EMU has won seven or more games just seven times in 51 FBS seasons; Chris Creighton has been at the helm for four of them. When you adjust for historical standards, the fact that he's gone 58-62 over his last decade in charge is a fantastic achievement.
Returns have diminished, though. EMU went 9-4 and came achingly close to the MAC championship game in 2022, but both the Eagles' win totals and SP+ rankings have slipped for three straight years. At 4-8 and 119th in 2025, Creighton had his worst season in a decade, but 2026 offers a major rebound opportunity: EMU has the continuity and experience that virtually everyone else in the conference lacks.
Compared to most of the MAC, returning five offensive starters is a coup. Quarterback Noah Kim returns after throwing for 2,817 yards and 18 TDs; he's excellent in terms of sack avoidance, and he gets go-route master Nick Devereaux back as well. Tight end Joshua Long is sure-handed, and if sophomore slot man Harold Mack can build on a solid late showing (20 catches for 333 yards, all in the last five games), the Eagles could have one of the conference's better passing games. Losing 1,000-yard rusher Dontae McMillan hurts since backup Joey Mattord and transfers Braydon Bennett (Virginia Tech) and Malachi James (Syracuse) combined for just 56 rushing yards last season. All-conference guard Mickey Rewolinski is gone, too. Proven or not, you don't want Kim passing in constant second- or third-and-longs.
The experience on defense is genuinely exciting. Every unit was a revolving door in 2025: Nine linemen, four linebackers and 12 defensive backs started at least one game, but that struggle could pay off with 17 of those 25 combined starters returning. That includes a load of solid seniors like end Carter Evans, tackle Warren-Stevens Tayou, linebacker Zach Mowchan, safety Bryce Llewellyn and nickel Barry Manning, but younger players like end Quincy Byas and corner Caleb Dobbs showed solid potential given the opportunity. Co-coordinators Tate Omli and Kasey Teegardin should helm what should be a much improved unit, and EMU is either a projected favorite or narrow underdog in seven of eight conference games. There's opportunity here.
Just looking for a path to 6-6
Akron Zips
Head coach: Joe Moorhead (fifth year, 13-35 overall)
2026 projection: 127th in SP+, 4.2 average wins (3.1 in the MAC)
We're grading on a curve a lot in this piece, but Joe Moorhead coached his butt off in 2025. Despite a postseason ban, and despite the fact that he had both (a) inherited a team that had won seven games in four years and (b) had won just eight games in three years himself, Moorhead led Akron to its best SP+ ranking in seven years and its best win total in eight. His Zips weren't good by any real measure, but after a poor start, they exceeded both offensive and defensive projections in seven of their last 10 games.
By previous years' standards, their continuity is decent in 2026, too. Moorhead will need a new starting quarterback, probably either sophomore Brayden Roggow or the well-traveled Reese Poffenbarger, who's on his fifth school in six years and has thrown for 6,669 yards, mostly at Albany in 2022-23. But 1,000-yard rusher Jordan Gant returns, as do two exciting sophomore receivers in Marcel Williams and Kyan Mason. The line returns three of the eight players who started games last year and adds both a 2024 contributor in Dayne Shor (out last season) and three FCS starters.
As with most MAC teams, the defense was the better unit last year and returns a good chunk of a solid secondary. Veterans Alex Branch and Aamii Branch are both solid as either corners or nickels, and if one of five incoming corner transfers clicks, the secondary should again be solid. The front six returns end Cyrus Durham and tackle Ronald Hull, but the top five linebackers are gone.
Kent State Golden Flashes
Head coach: Mark Carney (second year, 5-7 overall)
2026 projection: 128th in SP+, 3.9 average wins (3.1 in the MAC)
Under Sean Lewis, Kent State went 17-14 from 2019-21 and reached the MAC championship game in 2021, and even when they slipped in 2022, it was only to 5-7. That's a level of consistent respectability this school hadn't produced in a half-century.
When Lewis left to become Colorado's ill-fated offensive coordinator, however, the bottom immediately dropped out. It usually does. The Flashes went a combined 1-23 under Kenni Burns, who was fired last April for code-of-conduct violations. (He's suing.) Offensive coordinator Mark Carney got the job on an interim basis, and he performed something miraculous, engineering an immediate return back to 5-7. The Flashes had no hope against good teams -- they were 0-4 against the SP+ top 50 with an average score of 54.3 to 8.5 -- but they won five of eight otherwise.
Carney deservedly got the full-time job, and Kent State returns starting quarterback Dru DeShields, sophomore possession man Wayne Harris, three starting offensive linemen and a couple of exciting sophomore safeties (Derrick Jackson III and Joel Cordoba). But Carney had to do heavy portal work on a budget, and, well, this still wasn't a very good team last year. Four of their five wins were by a touchdown or less, and some of the guys responsible for timely big plays are gone. The magical Da'Realyst Clark returns -- two of his 16 kick returns went for touchdowns, and one of his three receptions was an 89-yard score -- and there are plenty of weak opponents on the schedule after the customary nonconference gauntlet. But further improvement in the win total might be a tall ask.
Sacramento State Hornets
Head coach: Alonzo Carter (first year)
2026 projection: 130th in SP+, 4.3 average wins (3.0 in the MAC)
Sacramento State has contributed a decent amount to college football lore. It gave us Ken O'Brien of "drafted before Dan Marino" fame. It gave us Ryan Coogler, who caught 112 passes for the Hornets, then made "Black Panther" and "Sinners." It gave us one of the sport's more delightful recent offenses, the 2022 edition that alternated two quarterbacks, introduced the world to Cam Skattebo and rolled through a 12-0 start before losing an amazing 66-63 FCS playoff game to Incarnate Word.
Sacramento State falls to Incarnate Word in Troy Taylor's final game with the Hornets, as he is expected to take the head coaching job at Stanford.
That's a shallow but delightful legacy. And now Sac State will also be known as That California School That Joined the MAC. Increasingly desperate to jump to FBS, the Hornets found an unlikely home, and because of it they'll play their do things like visiting Mount Pleasant, Michigan, on a Wednesday evening in November.
They might be up for this challenge. I'm not sure. They were the equivalent of 130th in SP+ last season (ahead of two MAC teams), but head coach Brennan Marion left to become Colorado's offensive coordinator*, and the Hornets basically return four total starters, one on offense.
(* Hopefully it works out better for Marion than it did for Sean Lewis.)
New head coach Alonzo Carter has been a long-celebrated California assistant (with great dance moves). He brought in both semi-proven FCS veterans like quarterback Carson Conklin (a freshman star at Sac State who spent 2025 as a Fresno State backup), running back Davion Godley (Weber State), offensive lineman Vae Soifua (Weber State), linebacker Darson Jeanty (Lafayette) and safety Dionte Thornton (Portland State). He also landed some higher-profile youngsters like running back Cincere Rhaney (San Diego State), receiver Elijah Washington (Oregon State), offensive lineman Garrison Blank (UCLA) and cornerbacks Noah King (Colorado) and Amari Wallace (Miami). The cupboard isn't bare, but depth will likely be an enormous issue, and the Hornets are only projected favorites against Mississippi Valley State and UMass. They signed up for this grind -- they craved it -- but it will indeed be a grind.
Ball State Cardinals
Head coach: Mike Uremovich (second year, 4-8 overall)
2026 projection: 134th in SP+, 3.0 average wins (2.4 in the MAC)
Mike Uremovich's greatest strength is his adaptability. He spent the first four years of his coaching career in the high school ranks, and he was resourceful enough to win 10 games at NAIA's St. Francis and nine at Butler. His first Ball State team upset Ohio, and both the offense (25 points against UConn, 24 against Miami) and defense (14 points allowed against Ohio, 13 against Kent State) had their moments. But the Cardinals still finished 132nd in SP+, and almost everyone who did something exciting is gone: BSU returns three offensive starters and one defensive starter. The MAC will severely test your adaptability.
I did like Uremovich's portal work. He brought in both a backup from quarterback-friendly Texas State (Keldric Luster) and a successful D-II guy in Tyler Mizzell (Concord), and like others, he attempted a mix of solid smaller-school guys and former higher-profile recruits. Among the former: offensive linemen Maxwell Wentz (Dartmouth) and Jacob Jeudy (Concord) and defensive end Austin Stief (Davenport). Among the latter: defensive tackle Kendrick Gilbert (Louisville), edge rushers Maverick Gracio (Pitt) and Jared Badie (San Diego State) and nickelbacks Cincear Lewis (Cincinnati) and Jovan Clark (Washington State). Receiver CJ Nelson is both -- he was solid at Eastern Illinois after starting out at Houston.
With eight incoming transfers for the lines and four 300-pound defensive tackles (plus 6-foot-10, 318-pound left tackle Chris Hood), Ball State has excellent potential in the trenches, and if one of the new QBs clicks, improvement is conceivable. But when you haven't had a winning record since 2020 and you've had one double-digit SP+ ranking since 2014, you don't really get the benefit of the doubt.
Massachusetts Minutemen
Head coach: Joe Harasymiak (second year, 0-12 overall)
2026 projection: 137th in SP+, 2.9 average wins (1.5 in the MAC)
Let's begin with something positive: You could tell what Joe Harasymiak wanted to do last season. His Minutemen avoided mistakes -- they were 62nd in turnovers and 23rd in penalty yards per game -- and attempted physicality via both run and pass. An above average percentage of their passes went to either tight ends or slot receivers who were close to a lot of blockers. The punting was good, and the defense was good on third-and-longs. Their game plans were solid, too: They were ahead after the first quarter three times and at halftime twice. Harasymiak was a Greg Schiano assistant at Rutgers, and you could tell.
You do need some level of talent to succeed, however. UMass didn't have much. Things always fell apart, and the Minutemen went 0-12 and finished 136th, a distant last, in SP+.
Predictably, Harasymiak's second roster will look almost nothing like his first, at least outside of what should be a solid secondary. He brought in former Virginia Tech reserve William Watson III and 2,500-yard passer RJ Johnson III (Florida A&M) at QB, plus plenty of other proven FCS talents: receivers Randall King (Campbell) and Devin Matthews (East Texas A&M), offensive linemen Greg Klingensmith (William & Mary) and Greg Knox (McNeese), defensive ends Justin Krueger (William & Mary) and Zachary Betts (Saint Francis), linebackers Joshua Iseah (NC A&T) and Kendric Council (Saint Francis). He got a sprinkling of former blue-chippers, too, including defensive end Andrew Depaepe (Indiana). UMass will look far more like an FBS team this season, and with an identity, a potentially solid offensive line and the easiest schedule in FBS -- two FCS opponents, plus eight projected 108th or worse in SP+ -- the Minutemen should win some games. After last season, that alone is reason for encouragement.
One big anniversary
15 years ago, MACtion peaked.
This is a conference far more skewed toward defense now, but in 2011, with the spread and heavy tempo becoming the dominant college football style, MACtion became must-watch because of absolutely ridiculous point totals. NIU's 63-60 win over Toledo included four fourth-quarter lead changes, 1,121 total yards, 11 touchdown passes, two 100-yard rushers and, in the first five minutes alone, two Tommylee Lewis kick return scores. Absurd.
That season, NIU won games by scores of 63-60, 41-38 and 51-22 and lost by scores of 45-42 and 48-41. Toledo, meanwhile, followed this game with a 66-63 win over Western Michigan, then beat Air Force 42-41 in the Military Bowl.
I miss stupid point totals. I want them back.
