Ranking quarterbacks three months before the first game is inherently more art than science. There's a lot of projection, a lot of guesswork and a lot of "Who is this guy?" and "Wait, he's on this team now?"
Yet, in some ways, 2026 represents a return to normalcy at the quarterback position. After the NCAA's fight against extended eligibility (we'll miss you Diego Pavia and Joey Aguilar) and the expiration of the COVID bonus-year players, the era of the sixth- and seventh-year starters has drawn to a close. This season opens with just six QBs with 30 or more career starts under their belts -- down from a high of 17 in 2023.
With fewer bonus-year players and more movement in the portal, we'd assume QB play might've slipped a bit, too. In fact, Power 4 quarterbacks posted an average Total QBR last year of 68.9 -- easily the best output of the playoff era. And 2026 is shaping up to be an elite year for QB play, from second-year studs like CJ Carr and Julian Sayin to established veterans like Gunner Stockton and Darian Mensah to Arch Manning.
So, who's the cream of the crop? Who's in trouble? And who are the underrated QBs waiting to make a splash in 2026?
After sifting through reams of stats and scouting reports from coaches, this is a projection of who'll fit best in new systems after a coaching change or a portal move. And yet, ultimately a lot of choices are more gut instinct than data-backed rationale. The season will be full of surprises and that's the fun. The important thing is no one remembers how badly they were ranked when it's all over.
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Tier 1a: Room at the top (four players)
Miami (Darian Mensah)
Notre Dame (CJ Carr)
Ole Miss (Trinidad Chambliss)
Texas (Arch Manning)
Tier 1b: Great but also has Jeremiah Smith (one player)
Ohio State (Julian Sayin)
It's fascinating to see how these quarterbacks evolved over the past year. Last spring, Manning was the most hyped QB in the country, but his early results hardly matched the excitement. Just as he was branded a bust, he found his footing and the hype machine sputtered back to life.
Duke's $4 million investment in Mensah for 2025 drew its share of derisive eye rolls at the time, but he delivered big numbers for a team that won the ACC title and would've entered 2026 as a conference favorite if not for Miami backing up a Brink's truck at his door with a "Godfather"-type offer. Now he'll take over for Carson Beck in Coral Gables with a stable of receivers arguably a bit better than what Beck had to work with en route to a national title game.
Carr and Sayin both entered the season as untested starters who battled for the QB1 job deep into fall camp, inheriting offenses with superstars ready to carry a heavy load. Both proved they were up to the task of stewarding elite offenses, yet both came up short of lofty goals. Where their paths diverge now, however, is that Carr will be the centerpiece of Notre Dame in 2026 with Jeremiyah Love moving on to the NFL, while Sayin still has Smith at his disposal as he enters his second season as the Buckeyes' starting QB.
And then there's Chambliss, a D-II transfer who opened last season as the backup at Ole Miss, took over following an injury to starter Austin Simmons, then delivered the Rebels two playoff wins in spite of myriad controversies surrounding their departed head coach. Now, after nearly 4,500 yards of offense and a whole lot of lawyers, he's back for one last go-round and a chance to prove he was no Lane Kiffin creation.
Add them all up, and the five QBs in Tier 1 accounted for 161 touchdowns, 37 turnovers and 18,307 total yards last season.
Did you know?
On third- or fourth-and-long in 2025, Chambliss posted a 97.0 QBR with seven touchdowns, no turnovers, six completions of 20 yards or more, five runs of 10 yards or more and converted at a 42% clip, the highest rate of any returning quarterback.
Only two Power 4/Power 5 QBs in the playoff era have posted 4,000 total yards and 30 touchdowns with fewer than five turnovers in a season: Bo Nix in 2023 and Chambliss last season.
Mensah vs. the blitz last year: 20 touchdown passes, no picks.
Mensah had eight fumbles last year, most among returning QBs.
Mensah had 12 games with multiple touchdown passes last year. No other Power 4 quarterback had more than 10.
No returning QB was blitzed at a higher rate in 2025 than Carr (36.7% of dropbacks). It didn't seem to bother him, as he completed 65% of his throws with 14 touchdowns and two picks when facing five or more pass rushers. Still, defenses had few other options. When they didn't blitz, Carr averaged 9.4 yards per dropback, the best rate in the country.
Carr in four games vs. ranked Power 4 opponents last year: six passing TDs, five INTs, 6.3 yards per pass
Carr vs. everyone else: 18 passing TDs, one interception, 10.2 yards per pass
Manning vs. FBS opponents in 2025:
First six starts: 58.8 Total QBR (78th in FBS), 17 TDs (10 of which came vs. San Jose State and Sam Houston), five TOs, 6.9 yards per dropback
Last six starts: 89.1 Total QBR (3rd in FBS), 20 TDs, two TOs, 7.52 yards per dropback
Manning last season in games with:
Five or more designed runs in a game: 35.4 Total QBR, 4.7 yards per dropback
One or fewer designed runs in a game: 87.7 Total QBR, 10.0 yards per dropback
The 2025 season was the first year without a major-conference QB posting 4,000 total yards and 40 total touchdowns since 2009. Mensah and Manning are the only returning QBs to hit 3,500 yards and 35 touchdowns.
Sayin vs. ranked Power 4 opponents: 2-2 record, 59.2 QBR, 68% completion rate, six TDs, four INTs, 6.9 yards per dropback
Sayin vs. unranked Power 4 opponents: 8-0 record, 92.8 QBR, 80% completion rate, 19 TDs, one INT, 8.41 yards per dropback
Tier 2: Are you not entertained? (four players)
LSU (Sam Leavitt)
Oregon (Dante Moore, Dylan Raiola)
USC (Jayden Maiava)
It's splitting hairs a bit between Tier 1 and Tier 2 with the key difference being imagination. For the QBs in Tier 1, 2025 was a first step toward a vast future. They were excellent and bigger things are ahead.
For the QBs in Tier 2, we've got a pretty good idea of who they are. They're very good -- and have been for a while. How much better can they be in 2026? Perhaps it's just a matter of an already established track record over multiple seasons, but these guys feel like safer bets for an impressive repeat of past success than a sudden uptick into a whole new stratosphere. Still, another year of elite results might be good enough to put any of their teams in championship contention.
Did you know?
Just 17.7% of Moore's throws last year came vs. man coverage, the third-lowest rate in FBS. Here's why: Roughly one in 10 throws vs. man ended in a touchdown, with Moore posting a 90.6 QBR (best among Power 4 QBs).
Only 13 quarterbacks in the playoff era have posted a better Total QBR in a season than Maiava did last year (89.9). All but one became a first-round NFL draft pick (Khalil Tate, 2017).
In the 17 games since Maiava took over as USC's starter, he has posted an 86.3 Total QBR and averaged 8.1 yards per dropback. The Trojans are 12-5 in those games. In the prior 17 games, USC's starting QBs had a 78.7 Total QBR and averaged 6.9 yards per dropback, posting a 7-10 record.
Leavitt vs. Big 12 opponents the past two years: 11-2 record, 80.1 Total QBR, 26 passing TDs, four INTs, 63.4% completion rate
Leavitt vs. everyone else: 5-2 record, 61.5 Total QBR, eight passing TDs, five INTs, 57.4% completion rate
A blind comparison:
QB A: 76.6 Total QBR, 35 touchdowns, 11 turnovers, 7.2 yards per dropback
QB B: 76.5 Total QBR, 32 touchdowns, seven turnovers, 7.1 yards per dropback
QB B is Leavitt, from Nov. 1, 2024 to Nov. 1, 2025, his last 14 games before a season-ending injury. QB A is Darian Mensah's 14 starts in 2025.
Moore last year vs. Montana State, Oklahoma State, Oregon State, Rutgers and James Madison: 93.7 Total QBR, 11.2 yards per dropback, 19 touchdowns, three TOs
Moore vs. everyone else: 71.4 Total QBR, 6.6 yards per dropback, 13 touchdowns, nine turnovers
Raiola's career vs. Power 4 opponents: 9-9 record, 59.0 Total QBR, 5.57 yards per dropback, 21 touchdowns, 20 turnovers, 53 sacks
Tier 3: The Sean Clifford Zone (six players)
Georgia (Gunner Stockton)
Indiana (Josh Hoover)
Oklahoma (John Mateer)
Penn State (Rocco Becht)
Texas A&M (Marcel Reed)
Utah (Devon Dampier)
Sean Clifford won 32 games as Penn State's starter. He was nearly always somewhere between solid and quite good. Against teams that finished the year ranked, however, he was a woeful 4-11. This, of course, was the story for nearly every quarterback under James Franklin at Penn State, but it's also true for a lot of others and this presents a delicate situation for schools like those Nittany Lions teams. They have legitimate national championship hopes. They have QBs good enough to get them close -- but maybe not close enough.
Mateer, Stockton and Reed are a combined 0-4 in the College Football Playoff, with seven touchdowns and six turnovers.
Reed and Mateer are a combined 0-3 vs. rival Texas, with no touchdowns and seven turnovers.
Against Auburn, Florida and Georgia Tech -- Georgia's three chief rivals -- Stockton averaged just 5.6 yards per pass with three touchdowns and two turnovers.
Hoover is 1-5 with 13 touchdowns and 12 turnovers against year-end ranked opponents in his career.
Dampier faced just three teams that finished better than 7-6 last year. In those three games, he threw two TDs, three INTs and averaged just 5.6 yards per dropback.
Or, here's a blind comparison befitting this tier's namesake
QB A: 67.8 Total QBR, 60.8% completion rate, 7.93 yards/attempt, 2.5 pass TD:INT ratio
QB B: 66.8 Total QBR, 60.2% completion rate, 7.53 yards/attempt, 2.8 pass TD:INT ratio
QB A is Becht's career stat line. QB B is ... every Penn State QB from 2014-25.
There's a short list of quarterbacks you'd rather have than these guys. The problem is, when it comes to crunch time, it's that short list -- not these QBs -- who've come up big.
Did you know?
Stockton vs. top-25 (by SP+) defenses last year: 18 TDs, two TOs, 72% completion rate.
Stockton last year:
Targeting Zachariah Branch: 94.4 QBR, 83% completion rate, six TDs, zero INTs
Targeting all others: 73.0 QBR, 65% completion rate, 18 TDs, five INTs
Stockton in the red zone last year: 26 TDs, no TOs.
Mateer started 10 games vs. Power 4 competition last year. Eight of them came vs. top-25 defenses (by SP+).
On throws of 20 yards or more last season:
Fernando Mendoza: nine TDs, zero INTs
Hoover: 15 TDs, 11 INTs
Hoover threw for 3,472 yards last season. If he hits that mark again this year, he'd be in the top 25 in all-time career passing yards.
Becht's 26 career wins as a starter are four more than any other returning QB (except Brendan Sorsby)
Becht vs. winning Power 4 opponents last year: 55.1 Total QBR, 59% completion rate, six passing TDs, seven INTs, 6.0 yards per dropback
Becht vs. all others: 73.8 Total QBR, 62% completion rate, 10 passing TDs, two INTs, 7.6 yards per dropback
A blind comparison:
QB A: 16 starts, 76.9 Total QBR, 60.9% completion rate, 4,094 total yards, 7.0 yards per dropback, 33 total touchdowns
QB B: 16 starts, 73.7 Total QBR, 61.5% completion rate, 4,520 total yards, 7.4 yards per dropback, 34 total touchdowns
Pretty similar, right? Well, QB A is a guy we've already talked about: LSU's Leavitt vs. Power 4 opponents in his career. QB B? That's Reed. The difference between the two though? Leavitt has nine turnovers in that span. Reed has 21.
Three quarterbacks finished last year with 34 or more touchdowns, 3,300 or more yards and six or fewer turnovers: Heisman Trophy winner Mendoza, top transfer target Sorsby and ... Dampier.
Tier 4: Better than you thought (six players)
Arizona (Noah Fifita)
Houston (Conner Weigman)
NC State (CJ Bailey, Will Wilson)
SMU (Kevin Jennings)
Washington (Demond Williams Jr.)
Hype in college football can be as much about presentation as actual success, and for the QBs in Tier 4, the numbers suggest they should be getting a lot more love than they do.
For example:
QB A: 79.4 Total QBR, 7.82 yards per pass, 25 passing touchdowns, nine INTs
QB B: 78.0 Total QBR, 7.83 yards per pass, 26 passing touchdowns, seven INTs
Pretty similar, right? Well, QB B is kind of famous. That'd be Texas' Manning. The other QB though? If you're from outside Raleigh, North Carolina, you're probably not considering NC State's Bailey as a Heisman contender, but his stat line certainly warrants the buzz.
Only nine returning QBs -- and just two from Power 4 schools -- had more rushing touchdowns last year than Wilson (10). Of Wilson's 43 rushing attempts last season, 30 resulted in a first down or touchdown.
Some version of this same story can be told for each QB in this tier. Did you know Weigman won 10 games last year? Or that Fifita, playing for the first time without Tetairoa McMillan, posted a career high in passing yards? Or that Williams was one of just three Power 4 QBs last year -- alongside Heisman runner-up Pavia and Tier 1's Chambliss -- to account for 3,000 passing yards, 500 rushing yards and 30 touchdowns?
Tier 4 isn't chock full of the biggest names, but five of these quarterbacks are among the best in the country.
Did you know?
A blind comparison:
QB A: 19 wins in 28 starts, 64% completion rate, 52 passing TDs, 26 INTs, 284 yards-per-game started
QB B: 19 wins in 26 starts, 65% completion rate, 54 passing TDs, 26 INTs, 283 yards-per-game started
Both were undervalued recruits from 2022 (QB A was No. 53 nationally, QB B was No. 99). QB A is clearly considered one of the best returning starters in the country -- USC's Maiava. QB B is SMU's Jennings.
When Jennings has one or fewer turnovers in a game, SMU is 14-3. When he has two or more, the Mustangs are 4-4.
Weigman is 19-7 as a starter. Since 2020, the only quarterbacks with 25 or more starts and a better win percentage to not start at least one playoff game: Jordan Travis, Kyle McCord and Spencer Sanders.
Since 2021, there have been 17 quarterbacks to win 10 games while compiling 3,000 yards, 35 touchdowns and 10 or fewer turnovers. That list includes nine first-round draft picks, 11 Heisman finalists, five QBs who played for a national title and two currently active players: Manning and Weigman.
Bailey's career in the red zone: 112 touches, 35 touchdowns, zero turnovers
Another blind comparison:
QB A: 69.3 QBR, 71.5% completion rate, 8.6 yards per pass, 29 TDs, 12 TOs, 249 yards per game
QB B: 69.9 QBR, 70% completion rate, 8.5 yards per pass, 29 TDs, 11 TOs, 280 yards per game
Both QBs come from the Big Ten. QB B is Washington's Williams vs. FBS opponents. QB A is Oregon's Moore.
One last blind comparison:
QB A: 6-3 record, 76.5 Total QBR, 65.5%, 7.4 yards per attempt, 21 TDs, four INTs
QB B: 6-3 record, 73.4 Total QBR, 65.2%, 7.5 yards per attempt, 21 TDs, four INTs
QB A is Tier 1's Mensah after Oct. 1 of last year. QB B is the same interval for Fifita.
Tier 5: The Christian Hackenberg Paradox (three players)
BYU (Bear Bachmeier)
California (Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele)
Michigan (Bryce Underwood)
Already picking on former Penn State quarterbacks, let's use Hackenberg as another example of a unique QB subset.
Flashback to 2011, when Hackenberg, a 6-foot-4 archetype for a quarterback, earned Penn State's starting job as a true freshman and wowed, throwing 20 touchdown passes and announcing himself as a burgeoning star, a near certain first-round NFL draft pick.
From there, things didn't quite go as planned. There was a coaching change and too many turnovers and, while he did ultimately get drafted in the second round due almost entirely to his measurables, his NFL career amounted to just a few snaps in the preseason.
The point is, true freshmen putting up impressive seasons is a rarity and it often portends greatness. But not always. Witness the DJ Lagway roller coaster from 2024 to 2025 as another prime example.
And so Tier 5: Three highly regarded QBs who looked, at times, like elite players as true freshmen in 2025 but whose miscues left at least a little room for concern over their future development.
At least one -- and maybe all three -- of these QBs will be a first-round draft pick in 2028. But, it's also possible there's a Hackenberg in here, too.
Did you know?
Just 16.6% of Underwood's throws last year came vs. man coverage, the lowest rate among Power 4 QBs.
Underwood was off target on 20% of his throws beyond the line of scrimmage last year, the fourth-worst rate among returning quarterbacks.
Sagapolutele in six wins vs. FBS opponents: 74.8 Total QBR, 15 passing TDs, one INT
Sagapolutele in six losses vs. FBS opponents: 45.5 Total QBR, three passing TDs, seven INTs
Last year, no Power 4 QB had more completions on 20+ yard throws downfield than Sagapolutele (85).
In the past 20 years, just 19 Power 4/Power 5 QBs had 3,000 pass yards, 500 rush yards, 25 TDs and 10 or fewer turnovers in a season. Four won the Heisman. Three were runners-up and six became first-round draft picks. Another is Bachmeier, who did it as a true freshman.
Tier 6: Welcome to the big leagues (three players)
Auburn (Byrum Brown)
Nebraska (Anthony Colandrea)
Oklahoma State (Drew Mestemaker)
In 2024, five quarterbacks from Group of 5 schools posted a Total QBR of 50 or better and then transferred into the Power 4. The results ranged from exceptional (Mensah, Dampier) to solid (Aguilar, Chandler Morris) to awful (Gio Lopez).
Sometimes, the talent translates. Sometimes it doesn't. Scheme, fit, supporting cast -- all of that matters as much as the raw talent, but playing with the big boys also means the weaknesses that might've escaped scrutiny at a lesser level will get exposed eventually.
So, what to make of the cream of this year's Group of 5-turned-Power 4 crop?
Mestemaker sticks with his old coach, Eric Morris, and scheme, but he's part of an Oklahoma State program that has lost its past 20 straight games against FBS opponents.
Brown, too, sticks with his former coach, as both he and Alex Golesh move from South Florida to Auburn. Brown has thrown for more than 3,000 yards in each of his past two healthy seasons (2023 and 2025). The last Auburn QB to throw for 3,000? Jarrett Stidham, all the way back in 2017.
Then there's Colandrea, who has already spent two years playing Power 4 football at Virginia, where he was viewed as an intriguing prospect who just needed to balance his playmaking ability with less risk taking. It took a step down to the Mountain West for it to all click into place, however. Now he's at Nebraska, where that program is starved for a star QB. Colandrea's 74.9 QBR last season would've been the best by any Nebraska player since at least 2004.
Did you know?
No returning quarterback saw a bigger increase year-over-year in Total QBR from 2024 to 2025 than Colandrea (+27.8).
Brown outside the pocket last season: 67.4% completion rate, five touchdowns, 11.8 yards per pass, 9.9 yards per dropback. His 97.0 QBR outside the pocket was best in the nation.
Returning QBs with four or more red zone turnovers last year: Reed, Mestemaker and Mason Heintschel.
Returning players with 4,000 total yards and 30 TDs last year: Chambliss, Brown, Mestemaker and Colandrea.
Mestemaker completed 196 passes that resulted in a first down last year. Oklahoma State, as a team, had just 14 more completions total.
Seven of Mestemaker's 14 starts came against teams ranked 95th or worse in defensive FPI. In those games, he averaged 12.5 yards per attempt with 16 touchdowns and one INT. Against everyone else, he averaged 7.1 yards per attempt with 18 touchdowns and eight interceptions (including four TDs and six INTs in two games vs. top-60 opponents).
Tier 7: It'll all work out (four players)
Alabama (Keelon Russell, Austin Mack)
TCU (Jaden Craig)
Vanderbilt (Jared Curtis)
It's a rarity in this era for contending teams to roll the dice with an unproven QB, but that's what makes Tier 7 so intriguing.
At TCU, Sonny Dykes shrugged off the loss of a three-year starter who left to join the defending national champs by casting his lot with Craig, a three-year starter at Harvard, with a 20-4 record and as many career interceptions (15) as TCU QBs had last year alone.
At Alabama, Kalen DeBoer turned an unproven -- but highly recruited -- backup into a first-round draft pick a year ago. He's hoping to do it again with either Russell or Mack in 2026, though the key to either's success probably rests more on getting a stagnant run game going.
And then there's Vandy, which completely flipped its longtime script as a national afterthought thanks to the impact of Pavia. Sadly, Pavia's career ended after his (approximately) 34th season and the Commodores need to prove they're capable of playing at a high level with someone else at QB. Enter Curtis, a five-star recruit who flipped to Vandy in one of the most shocking high school signings in recent memory.
Will 2026 be smooth sailing despite the new faces at QB or will the Power 4 learning curve be too steep for the Tier 7 talents? Odds are one of these guys is poised for stardom.
Did you know?
In the playoff era, just 12 quarterbacks have started at least half of their team's games in the SEC as true freshmen. Only Jalen Hurts (2016) and Nix (2019) won eight or more games. The last to do it at Vandy was Ken Seals, who went 0-9 in 2020.
Diego Pavia posted a 81.8 Total QBR during his time at Vanderbilt. Every other QB to start a game for Vandy in the playoff era has a combined Total QBR of 47.6 with none better than 57.8 (Kyle Shurmer).
In his time as a head coach across four schools, Dykes' starting QBs have averaged 7.7 yards per attempt, 299 yards per start and thrown 429 touchdowns to just 150 interceptions. Since landing at Cal in 2012, only one of Dykes' QBs has started seven or more games and thrown for fewer than 3,000 yards (Ben Hicks in 2018, Dykes' first year at SMU).
Dating back to Nick Saban's first year at Alabama, the Tide have had 10 seasons open with a different QB1 than the previous season's primary starter. Four of those 10 QBs went on to be first-round draft picks. Five eventually won national championships and three became Heisman finalists. Combined, they posted a Total QBR of 82.4 with 335 touchdowns and 91 turnovers in their first year as the starter. Alabama was a combined 129-14 in those seasons.
Tier 8: Learning to fly (five players)
Colorado (Julian Lewis)
Maryland (Malik Washington)
Mississippi State (Kamario Taylor)
Pittsburgh (Mason Heintschel)
Virginia Tech (Ethan Grunkemeyer)
Consider Tier 8 the poor man's Tier 6, insofar as Bachmeier, Sagapolutele and Underwood represent the safest bets to make the leap from fresh-faced talent from 2025 into outright superstar in 2026, while these five QBs come with a few more question marks.
Still, witness Washington's electric season finale vs. Michigan State or Heintschel's red-hot start at Pitt or Taylor's 173 rushing yards in the Egg Bowl and it's easy to see why there's excitement for their future.
Did you know?
Washington vs. FBS bowl-eligible opponents: 0-5 record, 58.8 Total QBR, 58% completion, 5.5 yards per dropback, five TDs, six TOs
vs. others: 4-3 record, 56.8 Total QBR, 56.8% completion rate, 6.75 yards per dropback, 16 TDs, five TOs
Washington was pressured on 146 dropbacks last year. He was sacked just eight times -- the best rate in the Power 4.
Pitt has started eight quarterbacks in the four seasons since Kenny Pickett left. As a group, they're 23-24 vs. FBS competition with a 49.1 Total QBR, 67 passing touchdowns and 43 picks.
Heintschel faced pressure on 42.4% of dropbacks last year, fourth highest among Power 4 QBs.
A blind comparison:
QB A: 6-3 record, 50.8 QBR, 61.4% completion rate, 14 touchdowns, seven turnovers, 7.41 yards per attempt
QB B: 6-3 record, 52.1 QBR, 63.6% completion rate, 18 touchdowns, 11 turnovers, 7.44 yards per attempt
QB B is Heintschel through his first nine starts vs. FBS competition. QB A is the guy he replaced, Eli Holstein, through his first nine FBS starts at Pitt a year earlier.
Grunkemeyer's first three starts (vs. Iowa, Indiana and Ohio State): 64.4% completion rate, 4.34 yards per dropback, one TD, four TOs
Grunkemeyer's past four starts (vs. Michigan State, Nebraska, Rutgers and Clemson): 73.8% completion rate, 8.17 yards per dropback, six TDs, zero TOs
Colorado posted just a 30.3% offensive success rate with Lewis on the field last season. If the Buffaloes had done that for the full season, they would've ranked as the worst rate since UMass in 2020.
No returning Power 4 QB had more games with 50 rushing yards and a rushing touchdown last year than Taylor (four). Taylor started just two games.
Tier 9: Crafty veterans (nine players)
Kansas State (Avery Johnson)
South Carolina (LaNorris Sellers)
Syracuse (Steve Angeli, Malachi Nelson, Amari Odom)
Texas Tech (Kirk Francis, Will Hammond, Brendan Sorsby)
UCF (Alonza Barnett III)
Johnson might've been the most-hyped recruit Kansas State has had in decades. Sellers was in the Heisman conversation at the end of 2024. Angeli led Syracuse to a huge upset at Clemson -- then tore an ACL and was done for the season. Texas Tech's Plan B and C after Sorsby's gambling activity was revealed have a chance to step in and play the role of hero. And Barnett led JMU to the playoff just last year.
All of these guys have star potential -- even if they're not exactly on the national radar as elite players just yet.
Did you know?
Johnson has 12 career games with multiple touchdown passes and no picks. Only Becht (13) has more.
A blind comparison:
QB A: 58.8 Total QBR, 6.58 yards per dropback, 2.4 TD:TO ratio
QB B: 69.1 Total QBR, 6.58 yards per dropback, 2.0 TD:TO ratio
QB A was Texas Tech's starter last year, Behren Morton, vs. FBS opponents. QB B is Hammond's career line vs. FBS opponents (albeit in a career that includes just seven games in which he has thrown at least 10 passes).
Of the 75 returning quarterbacks with at least 10 career FBS starts, Francis' 37.6 Total QBR ranks 71st.
No FBS player has accounted for more touchdowns in the past two seasons than Barnett (71).
Sellers forced 48 missed tackles in 2025 -- the same total as 2024, when he seemed like the toughest QB on the planet to tackle. But his yards per rush went from 4.1 in 2024 to 1.8 in 2025, and his sack rate jumped from 8.7% to 11.1%.
Sellers played eight teams that finished with a winning record in each of the past two years. In 2024, he was 4-4 and averaged 7.5 yards per dropback (seventh best among qualified Power 4 players). In 2025, he was 0-8 and averaged 5.51 yards per dropback (58th). His sack total nearly doubled from 18 to 34, too.
Angeli had the second-highest rate of successful plays per dropback (minimum 100 dropbacks) last season, trailing only Sayin.
Angeli was injured midway through Syracuse's fourth game last year. He still had more passing TDs (10) and passing yards (1,317) last season than the rest of the team combined (seven and 1,290).
Tier 10: Best of the Group of 6 (six players)
Air Force (Liam Szarka)
Hawai'i (Micah Alejado)
Texas State (Brad Jackson)
South Florida (Michael Van Buren Jr., Luke Kromenhoek)
UTSA (Owen McCown)
Ten players posted a Total QBR of 60 or better at a non-Power 4 school last year and return for the 2026 season. Seven of them have transferred to Power 4 programs. Jackson, Szarka and Carlos Del Rio-Wilson are all that remain.
And yet, dig a little deeper, and there's an encouraging amount of talent at the Group of 6 level still. If the odds of hanging on to an established veteran outside the big programs is slim, it's not nonexistent.
Did you know?
No player averaged more expected points added per dropback last season than Szarka (0.50).
The only non-Power 4 QBs with at least 50 touchdowns, no more than 25 turnovers and at least 6,000 total yards over the past two years: Barnett and McCown (59 TDs, 22 TOs, 6,783 total yards). Barnett has since transferred to a Power 4 school.
Players with 3,200 passing yards, 700 rushing yards and 35 or more TDs last year: Pavia and Texas State's Jackson.
Alejado's last eight games of the 2025 season: 6-2 record, 74.6 QBR, 68% completion rate, 22 touchdowns, five turnovers, 8.05 yards per pass.
A blind comparison:
QB A: 12 starts, 24 touchdowns, 10 turnovers, 2,700 total yards
QB B: 12 starts, 24 touchdowns, 14 turnovers, 2,670 total yards
QB A is Penn State's Becht in 2025. QB B is Van Buren in 12 career starts in the SEC.
Kromenhoek is one of 13 high school QBs signed by Florida State since Jameis Winston. He's also one of 10 to transfer (so far). Their combined stat line after departing FSU: 14-35 record as a starter, 41.7 Total QBR, 55 touchdown passes and 50 INTs.
Tier 11: The waiting is the hardest part (six players)
Florida (Aaron Philo)
Georgia Tech (Alberto Mendoza)
Kentucky (Kenny Minchey)
Louisville (Lincoln Kienholz)
Missouri (Austin Simmons)
North Dakota State (Nathan Hayes)
Don't be surprised if at least one of the names in Tier 11 winds up being in the Heisman race by year's end. There's real talent here -- from Philo following Buster Faulkner to Minchey pairing with Will Stein to Kienholz fitting into Jeff Brohm's offense -- the fits are all intriguing.
The problem? Each of these guys has spent at least a couple of years riding the bench, losing QB battles with bigger names and waiting around for their number to be called.
In college football, waiting has become a toxic ideology, but there's something to be said for the guys who've gained experience, perspective and an appreciation for just how hard it is to become QB1 at this level.
Did you know?
In 10 career games -- no starts -- Kienholz had 13 designed runs for 64 yards and two touchdowns. The only Brohm-coached starting QB since 2017 with more in a season was Jack Plummer (30 in 2023).
A blind comparison:
Team A: 6.43 yards per play, 7.9 yards per pass, 5.3 yards per rush, 0.16 expected points added per play
Team B: 8.05 yards per play, 9.2 yards per pass, 6.5 yards per rush, 0.15 expected points added per play
Sample size matters here, of course, but Team A is Georgia Tech's offense with Haynes King at quarterback the past two years. Team B is Tech with Philo in the backfield.
Ole Miss averaged a full yard more per pass attempt with Simmons at QB last year (9.79) than Chambliss (8.79). The caveat: Simmons' work came almost entirely vs. Georgia State, Kentucky and The Citadel.
Georgia Tech's quarterbacks have a combined total of 25 career pass attempts -- 24 of which belong to Mendoza.
Kentucky has finished last in the SEC in Total QBR in each of the past two seasons. The Wildcats haven't finished with a Total QBR better than league average since 2021.
North Dakota State has had five quarterbacks drafted in the past 11 years -- the same tally as Alabama.
Tier 12: What's behind Door No. 2? (eight players)
Cincinnati (JC French IV, Samaj Jones)
Clemson (Christopher Vizzina, Tait Reynolds)
North Carolina (Billy Edwards Jr., Travis Burgess)
Tennessee (George MacIntyre, Faizon Brandon)
Tier 12 presents the ultimate combination of the devil you know vs. the one you don't.
On one hand, each of these teams could go with a veteran player -- either an in-house talent or a portal addition. They're all safe(ish) bets.
On the other hand, there's a true freshman with massive upside and virtually no practice reps.
With each team coming off a disappointing season, the pressure to go with the young player will be immense. Clemson fans are already bored with Vizzina, and they've seen this story unfold before -- in 2014 (Deshaun Watson), 2018 (Trevor Lawrence) and 2022 (Cade Klubnik) -- when Dabo Swinney went with the veteran to start, only to make a change somewhere along the way.
Carolina fans already endured the Gio Lopez experiment. Tennessee fans know a freshman talent when they see one. Cincinnati is already picking up the pieces of Sorsby's exit, and fans desperately want results now.
In each case, the difference between a coach calming a frustrated fan base and keeping his job or seeing the whole thing blow up might come down to making the right call here.
Did you know?
Clemson's Total QBR from 2015 to 2020: 82.1, third nationally; Clemson's Total QBR from 2021 to 2025: 60.7, 62nd nationally
A blind comparison:
QB A: 2-8 record, 50.6 Total QBR, 5.8 yards per dropback, 66% completion rate, eight touchdowns, five INTs
QB B: 3-8 record, 50.4 Total QBR, 5.7 yards per dropback, 60% completion rate, 12 touchdowns, nine INTs
QB A is Lopez's career line vs. Power 4 opponents. QB B is Carolina's replacement for Lopez, Billy Edwards.
Another blind comparison:
QB A: 14-11 as a starter, 59.0 QBR, 64% completion rate, 6.9 yards per attempt, 44 TDs, 19 turnovers
QB B: 15-11 as a starter, 58.2 QBR, 65% completion rate, 7.2 yards per attempt, 46 TDs, 24 turnovers
There's an obvious difference in quality of competition here, but QB A is French, and QB B is UCLA's once-heralded Nico Iamaleava.
Tier 13: Coordinators make them interesting (four players)
Arizona State (Cutter Boley, Mikey Keene)
Northwestern (Aidan Chiles)
Wake Forest (Gio Lopez)
Jordan Travis was a Louisville castoff on the verge of switching from quarterback to wide receiver when Kenny Dillingham worked with him at Florida State. Travis ended up a Heisman finalist.
Auburn fans largely wished good riddance when Nix departed for Oregon, but Dillingham helped turn him into a first-round draft pick.
Leavitt couldn't get on the field at Michigan State, but once he landed at Arizona State with Dillingham, he blossomed into a star.
So, can Dillingham make magic again with Boley? Sometimes, success is just about the right coach and scheme. Certainly, Lopez hopes that's true. Last year, Lopez struggled with Belichick at UNC, but now he's back with his former coordinator from his South Alabama days, Rob Ezell, and aiming for a rebirth at Wake. And Chiles certainly flashed his potential during his run with the Spartans. Now, he has landed at Northwestern with new OC Chip Kelly, who has helped guide some elite QB play over the years, too.
Did you know?
Lopez was pressured on 45.1% of dropbacks last year, the second most among FBS QBs.
Lopez's first five starts last season: 39.2 Total QBR, 62% completion rate, 4.9 yards per dropback, three touchdowns, six turnovers; Lopez's last four starts: 66.5 Total QBR, 70% completion rate, 6.7 yards per dropback, seven touchdowns, one turnover
Wake Forest receivers caught just 17.9% of contested targets last season, the worst in FBS.
Boley on 119 pressured dropbacks last year: one passing TD, six INTs, 25 sacks
Keene has 22 career wins as a starting QB, trailing only Becht among active players. Keene hasn't won a game since November 2024 though.
Tier 14: Living dangerously (12 players)
Baylor (DJ Lagway)
Boise State (Maddux Madsen)
Florida State (Ashton Daniels)
Illinois Fighting (Katin Houser)
Kansas (Cole Ballard, Isaiah Marshall, Chase Jenkins)
Minnesota (Drake Lindsey)
UCLA (Nico Iamaleava)
Virginia (Beau Pribula, Eli Holstein)
West Virginia (Michael Hawkins Jr.)
At one point, the QBs in this tier were rising stars, the hope for a program. Just last year, Lagway was among the hottest names in the sport. Iamaleava was college football's first NIL superstar. Hawkins started games for Oklahoma as a true freshman. Madsen helped lead Boise State to the playoff.
But not everyone progresses in a straight line. Heck, some guys don't progress. So, Tier 14 represents dimmed prospects and enough hope for the future to make these players intriguing.
Betting on Daniels saving Mike Norvell at FSU or Lagway reviving Dave Aranda's tenure at Baylor? Maybe reconsider. But squint hard enough, and it's possible to see the rough contours of how a magical season -- a revival of the promise that once surrounded these QBs -- could happen in 2026.
Did you know?
Iamaleava vs. FBS opponents:
Inside the pocket: 46.8 QBR, 5.2 yards per dropback
Outside the pocket: 91.9 QBR, 8.0 yards per dropback
Iamaleava had 520 rush yards on non-sack scramble plays last year -- the most among returning quarterbacks.
Iamaleava averaged just 9.27 yards per completion last season, the worst in the Power 4.
Big Ten quarterbacks with at least 22 touchdowns, 2,200 yards and six or fewer turnovers in a season during the playoff era: Justin Fields, J.J. McCarthy, Drew Allar, Mendoza and ... Minnesota's Lindsey.
Lagway's splits:
vs. Power 4 teams that finished with a winning record: 4-8 record, 40.4 QBR, 59.9% completion rate, 17 touchdowns, 16 turnovers, 6.2 yards per dropback
vs. everyone else: 6-1 record, 61.8 QBR, 66.5% completion rate, 12 touchdowns, eight turnovers, 8.7 yards per dropback
Jenkins from Week 4 on last season: 68% completion rate, 11 touchdowns, three turnovers
Missouri last season vs. Power 4 opponents:
With Pribula: 0.23 EPA-per-play, 43.9% success rate
Without Pribula: -0.106 EPA-per-play, 35.5% success rate
Daniels career vs. Power 4/Power 5 opponents: 3-16 record, 53.7 Total QBR, 18 touchdowns, 18 interceptions, 5.7 yards per pass with a 58.3% completion rate.
Hauser and Madsen are two of 17 returning QBs to account for at least 50 touchdowns in the past two seasons.
The decline in Madsen's Total QBR from 2024 (75.1) to 2025 (50.8) was the second-worst dip among 64 quarterbacks who were QBR qualified in both seasons.
Hawkins in two starts vs. Group of 5: 503 yards, six touchdowns, one turnover; Hawkins in three starts vs. SEC: 408 yards, one touchdown, four turnovers
Tier 15: Everyone gets lucky sometimes (seven players)
Arkansas (KJ Jackson, AJ Hill)
Boston College (Mason McKenzie)
Iowa (Jeremy Hecklinski, Hank Brown)
Rutgers (Dylan Lonergan)
Wisconsin (Colton Joseph)
Well, the good news for folks at Rutgers, Iowa, Wisconsin or Boston College is that there's really nowhere to go for the offense but up. It was bad last year. It has been bad for a while. The options for 2026 aren't markedly worse than the options in each of the past few years.
And if you're Arkansas, well ... at least there'll be fewer Bobby Petrino motorcycle jokes this year.
Did you know?
No player with at least 250 passes in the past two seasons averaged more air yards per throw in a season than Joseph last year (11.91). Under Luke Fickell, Wisconsin ranks 111th in air yards per attempt nationally (7.6).
Lonergan last year:
vs. Stanford, Michigan State and Georgia Tech: 70% completion rate, 73.3 Total QBR, 7.8 yards per dropback, seven touchdowns, two turnovers
vs. all other FBS opponents: 56% completion rate, 60.6 Total QBR, 5.6 yards per dropback, six touchdowns, seven turnovers
Boston College has had nine different QBs start a game in the past 10 years. The highest Total QBR for any while in a BC uniform is Grayson James (67.0). Last year, that would've ranked 44th among qualified QBs.
A blind comparison:
Team A: 0.25 EPA-per-dropback, 45.7% success rate, 63.9% completion rate, 2.87 TD:INT ratio
Team B: 0.27 EPA-per-dropback, 45.3% success rate, 63.3% completion rate, 2.78 TD:INT ratio
Team A is Memphis' combined efforts at quarterback under Ryan Silverfield. Team B is Arkansas over that same time frame.
Tier 16: Won't back down (four players)
Memphis (Air Noland)
North Texas (Tayven Jackson)
Rice (Jacurri Brown)
UNLV (Jackson Arnold)
A year ago, Colandrea, Del Rio-Wilson, Jake Retzlaff and AJ Swann were among the quarterbacks to move from the Power 4 to the Group of 5 and see a significant uptick in production. A year earlier, Houser, Chandler Morris and Tucker Gleason all revived their careers after shifting down from the Power 5. There's no shame in being one of the better QBs playing just a notch below the highest level, and as Houser, Colandrea, Morris and others have proven, it can be a good chance to gain some confidence, build out a skill set and be ready to make the leap back up again.
For Arnold, Jackson and Brown -- who've each spent time at multiple Power 4 programs without much success -- this year could be the chance to finally put it all together.
For Noland, who waited behind Sellers last season at South Carolina, this could be his opportunity to build a résumé for a bigger payday in 2027.
Did you know?
Just 41.9% of Arnold's passes last year went for a first down or touchdown, the worst rate among all qualified QBs. The FBS average was 54.3%.
Jackson last season:
vs. Power 4 opponents with five wins or more: 0-6 record, 36% success, 59.8% comp, 5.1 yards per attempt, four TDs, seven TOs, 31.1 Total QBR
vs. all others: 5-0, 53% success, 68.4% comp, 9.13 yards per attempt, 10 TDs, three TOs, 77.2 Total QBR
Tier 17: Pretty, pretty good (12 players)
Army (Cale Hellums)
Jacksonville State (Caden Creel, Gavin Wimsatt)
Louisiana (Lunch Winfield)
Marshall (Carlos Del Rio-Wilson)
Troy (Goose Crowder)
UAB (Ryder Burton)
Washington State (Caden Pinnick, Julian Dugger, Owen Eshelman)
Western Michigan (Broc Lowry)
Wyoming (Tyler Hughes)
The Group of 6 has some solid QB play further down its ranks, and these guys top the list.
Any tier that includes a Lunch, a Goose and a Ryder ought to be a lot higher than 17th.
Did you know?
Burton had just 148 touches last season, but 50.8% resulted in a successful play. That would've ranked 10th among returning QBs if he had qualified.
The only non-service academy QBs in the past 20 years to win 10 games or more while throwing 10 TD passes or fewer: Riley Skinner in 2006, Jordan Jefferson in 2010, Clayton Thorson in 2015, DJ Uiagalelei in 2021 and Lowry last year.
A blind comparison:
QB A: 73.3 QBR, 64% completion rate, 8.1 yards per attempt, 24 TDs, nine TOs, 47.7% success rate, 2,939 total yards
QB B: 69.6 QBR, 67% completion rate, 8.0 yards per attempt, 23 TDs, seven TOs, 48.2% success rate, 2,689 total yards
Here's a hint: Both QBs transferred from ACC schools before last season. QB A is Colandrea's last 10 games of 2025. QB B is the same time period for Del Rio-Wilson.
Crowder in the fourth quarter of one-possession games last season: 70% completion rate, six total TDs, zero INTs, 12.5 yards per pass.
From Oct. 1 on, Hellums racked up 997 rushing yards and 15 rushing touchdowns -- both easily tops among FBS QBs.
Winfield is one of just five QBs returning to Group of 6 schools this season who tallied at least 2,000 yards, 20 touchdowns and 10 or fewer turnovers from Week 5 -- his first serious playing time -- through the end of last year.
Creel is one of just 11 players in the past five seasons to account for at least 1,500 passing yards, 1,000 rushing yards and 15 total touchdowns.
Tier 18: Free fallin' (eight players)
Duke (Walker Eget, Dan Mahan)
Iowa State (Jaylen Raynor)
Michigan State (Alessio Milivojevic)
Purdue (Ryan Browne)
Stanford (Davis Warren, Dylan Rizk, Michael Mitchell Jr.)
Just because the sun comes up each morning doesn't guarantee it will again tomorrow. Which is to say that, just because there's very little evidence that these guys will turn in a strong season of QB play at the Power 4 level in 2026 doesn't mean it can't happen. Of course, if it does, Miami is apt to make a late run at acquiring Eget, just out of spite.
Did you know?
Returning Power 4 QBs who had more INTs than TDs vs. FBS opponents last year: Baylor's Lagway and Purdue's Browne.
Milivojevic was pressured on 49.2% of dropbacks last year -- highest among any qualified QB.
A blind comparison:
QB A: 65.1 Total QBR, 16 TDs, 11 TOs, 2,829 pass yards, 59% completion rate, 7.6 yards per attempt
QB B: 56.7 Total QBR, 26 TDs, 11 TOs, 2,642 pass yards, 60% completion rate, 6.9 yards per attempt
QB A is Eget in 2025 vs. FBS competition. QB B is Maalik Murphy's stats vs. FBS opponents in 2024, when he won nine games for Duke.
In 2024, as Michigan's starting QB, Warren averaged 8.95 yards per completion -- third lowest of any Big Ten QB with at least six starts in a season in the playoff era.
Raynor on throws of 10 yards or more downfield: 40% completion rate, four TDs, nine INTs.
Tier 19: You've come to the right place (17 players)
Fresno State (Khristian Martin, Jayden Mandal)
James Madison (Camden Coleman, Arrington Maiden, Davi Belfort)
Kennesaw State (Rickie Collins, Landon Varnes, Skyler Williams)
Navy (Braxton Woodson)
Toledo (John Alan Richter, Walter Moses, Khamani Robinson)
Tulane (Zeon Chriss-Gremillion, Kadin Semonza)
UConn (Tucker McDonald, Jake Merklinger, Kalieb Osborne)
The seven teams in Tier 19 were a combined 62-19 last year. Two of them made the College Football Playoff. But four of the seven have new head coaches, and all seven are looking for new starting QBs.
There are some familiar names. Chriss-Gremillion, Semonza and Collins have all been starters. Merklinger, Duncan and Martin all come from Power 4 schools. Richter and Woodson have seen action, albeit in a limited role. There's room for optimism.
But here's the reality: The QBs battling for snaps at these seven schools were a combined 0-7 as starters last season, and only Collins, who was benched in favor of a walk-on from the lacrosse team at Syracuse, attempted more than 52 passes.
Did you know?
A blind comparison:
QB A: 10-18 record, 64% completion rate, 56 TDs, 37 TOs, 6.8 yards per pass, 6,564 total yards of offense
QB B: 20-7 record, 63.5% completion rate, 54 TDs, 19 TOs, 8.7 yards per pass, 6,657 total yards of offense
QB B is the production Tulane has gotten from its starting QBs during the past two years -- Retzlaff and Mensah. QB A is the career numbers for the two guys battling for the job now -- Chriss-Gremillion and Semarza, across four different schools.
EPA-per-dropback last season for Syracuse:
Angeli: 0.22 (40th in FBS)
Collins: -0.13 (155th)
Navy's Total QBR over the past two seasons is 71.3. That's third best among Group of 6 schools.
Tier 20: Making things happen (seven players)
Delaware (Nick Minicucci)
Florida Atlantic (Caden Veltkamp)
Georgia Southern (Max Johnson, Weston Bryan)
Middle Tennessee (Roman Gagliano)
UTEP (EJ Colson)
Western Kentucky (Rodney Tisdale Jr.)
There's an old Woody Allen joke in which he complains that the food served at a restaurant is awful ... and such small portions!
The performances in this tier might be debatable -- though certainly far from awful -- but one thing that can't be said is that the portion size is small.
Veltkamp (42.9) and Minicucci (39.7) rank No. 1 and No. 2, respectively, among returning quarterbacks in attempts per game. WKU and MTSU rank among the five most prolific passing offenses over the past four seasons. Georgia Southern has averaged the fourth-most dropbacks per game under Clay Helton. Colson is a transfer from Incarnate Word -- one of the most prolific FCS offenses.
So, hope you came hungry. Tier 20 is the Golden Corral of passing.
Did you know?
Last season, 33.6% of Minicucci's passes were contested by the primary defender, the highest rate by any returning FBS quarterback. Delaware's receivers had 63 contested catches, five more than any other team.
Minicucci is one of just 11 returning QBs with 20 passing touchdowns and 10 rushing touchdowns last season.
Only five QBs in the playoff era have had back-to-back seasons with 15 or more turnovers: Aguilar (2023-24), Tommy Armstrong (2014-15), Sam Hartman (2021-22), Indiana's Hoover (2024-25) and Veltkamp (2024-25).
Tisdale's first three starts last season: 81.4 QBR, 71% completion rate, nine TDs, three TOs, 7.3 yards per dropback.
Tisdale's last three starts last season: 20.4 QBR, 55% completion rate, one TD, four TOs, 3.5 yards per dropback.
If Johnson starts a game at Georgia Southern this year, it will be his seventh straight season starting at least one college football game.
Tier 21: You could do a lot worse (15 players)
App State (Malachi Singleton, Henry Hasselbeck)
Colorado State (Hauss Hejny, Ksaan Farrar)
Eastern Michigan (Noah Kim)
Florida International (JJ Kohl)
Georgia State (Cameran Brown)
Louisiana Tech (Blake Baker)
Kent State (Dru DeShields)
New Mexico (Jack Layne)
San Diego State (Jayden Denegal)
South Alabama (Bishop Davenport)
Tulsa (Baylor Hayes, Dexter Williams II)
Utah State (McCae Hillstead)
You know those music snobs who refuse to like anything remotely popular, but ironically listen to the album Garth Brooks made as Chris Gaines and insist Paul McCartney's songwriting didn't really flourish until he formed Wings? If there were a quarterback fan equivalent of that, these are the guys they'd like most. These are 2026's QB deep cuts.
Did you know?
Layne's 13 passing TDs last season ranked T-80th nationally, but no New Mexico QB has had more passing TDs since 2007.
Kim's first six games last season: 1-5 record, 63% completion rate, 11 TDs, three TOs
Kim's last six games: 3-3 record, 60% completion rate, 13 TDs, 11 TOs.
No QB with at least six wins in 2025 posted a lower Total QBR last year than Denegal (41.6), who won nine. The next worst with nine or more wins was New Mexico's Layne (53.3).
DeShields is one of just three returning QBs who posted at least 2,000 yards, 20 touchdowns and three or fewer interceptions last year, along with Chambliss and Lowry, who were a combined 21-3 as starters last year. DeShields was 4-5.
Louisiana Tech averaged 7.3 yards per dropback with Baker on the field last year and 5.2 without him.
Georgia State with TJ Finley at QB last year: 37.8% success rate, 5.0 yards per play, 3.1 yards per rush
Georgia State with Brown at QB last year: 46.1% success rate, 5.8 yards per play, 4.4 yards per rush
Tier 22: Remember some guys, ACC edition (13 players)
Akron (Reese Poffenbarger)
East Carolina (Emory Williams, Mitch Griffis)
Liberty (Deshawn Purdie, Ethan Vasko, Jaylen Henderson, Jachin Davis)
Missouri State (Henry Belin IV, Skyler Locklear)
Oregon State (Maalik Murphy, Braden Atkinson, Brady Jones)
UMass (William "Pop" Watson III)
These six teams include seven former ACC quarterbacks. Williams and Poffenbarger were at Miami together behind Cam Ward. Watson started a bowl game at Virginia Tech. Murphy and Belin started games at Duke. Griffis and Purdie were former Wake Forest starters.
Here's hoping they all enjoyed their ACC-branded "ACComplish Greatness" commemorative tote bags they surely received upon transferring.
Did you know?
Murphy, Griffis, Williams, Watson, Belin, Purdie and Poffenbarger were a combined 18-12 as ACC starters. They accounted for 63 touchdowns and 37 turnovers as members of that conference.
Over the past two seasons, Purdie has averaged 17.2 yards per completion -- the highest of any FBS quarterback with at least 150 attempts. The problem? He has completed only 50% of his passes. His overall successful play rate on touches is just 35%, which is 207th out of 216 quarterbacks with at least 300 touches in that span.
Seven of Vasko's nine starts vs. FBS opponents came vs. teams ranked 100th or worse in FPI. In those games, he accounted for nine touchdowns and 11 turnovers.
Murphy in five games vs. Power 4 competition last year: 53% completion rate, four touchdowns, four turnovers, 5.85 yards per pass.
Tier 23: I guess we're doing this (18 players)
Central Michigan (Angel Flores, Marcus Beamon)
Coastal Carolina (Deuce Bailey, Tre Guerra, Trever Jackson, Osiris Lopez)
Nevada (Carter Jones, Luke Duncan, AJ Bianco)
Old Dominion (Quinn Henicle)
Sacramento State (Carson Conklin)
Sam Houston (Landyn Locke, DJ Bailey)
San José State (Luke Weaver, Robert McDaniel)
Southern Miss (Landry Lyddy, Ethan Hampton, John White)
Are these great QB situations? No. But it's what they've got, and we'll learn to love them.
Did you know?
Sam Houston State with Locke on at QB last year: 39.3% success rate, -0.08 EPA-per-play, 11.6% explosive plays.
Sam Houston State with anyone else at QB: 35.5% success rate, -0.18 EPA-per-play, 9.8% explosive plays.
Jones struggled early as a freshman last year -- three TDs, eight picks in his first five games of real action -- but over his final three starts of the season, he posted a solid enough line: 72.1% completion rate, three touchdowns, no picks. Of course, he also averaged less than 6 air yards per attempt.
Henicle's -.225 EPA-per-touch last season ranked 204th out of 212 FBS QBs with at least 75 touches.
In CMU's three-QB offense last year, Flores and Beamon accounted for four times as many rush attempts (140) as pass attempts (32).
Coastal Carolina has four quarterbacks battling for the starting job. None was on the roster before January.
Tier 24: Schrödinger's QB rooms (11 players)
Arkansas State (Trey Owens, Ethan Crawford)
Ball State (Keldric Luster, Tyler Mizzell)
Bowling Green (Austin Novosad, Jay Kastantin)
Buffalo (Jason Wright, Elijah Holmes)
Ohio (Nick Poulos, Matt Vezza, Levi Davis)
Here's the combined FBS stat line for the 11 quarterbacks listed above: 13 passes, 78 yards, zero touchdowns, zero interceptions.
Of course, if nothing is known about this group, then technically -- similar to a subatomic particle in a quantum superstate or a scientist's cat in a closed box -- until observed, they can be anything.
Did you know?
Last season, Raynor became Arkansas State's first 3,000-yard passer since 2018. From 2011 to 2018, the Red Wolves had QBs top 3,000 yards five times.
Poulos has three career games in which he has thrown at least eight passes. In those games, he is a combined 21-for-49 (43%) with no touchdowns, a pick and a 4.6 yards-per-pass average.
From 2017 through 2020, Buffalo posted a team Total QBR of 69.8 (third best outside the Power 5). From 2021 through 2025, Buffalo's team Total QBR is 39.1 (64th outside the Power 4/Power 5).
Tier 25: Better than all but .00002% (18 players)
Charlotte (Grayson Loftis, Conner Harrell, Cole Gonzales, Jaylen White)
Louisiana-Monroe (Aidan Armenta, Landon Graves, Austin Carlisle)
Miami (OH) (Thomas Gotkowski, David McComb, Caleb Heavner)
New Mexico State (Adam Damante, Trey Hedden, Kalani McLeod)
Northern Illinois (Jalen Macon, Brady Davidson, Ean Hamric)
Temple (Jaxon Smolik, Ajani Sheppard)
According to the most recent data, there are roughly 8.4 million male college students in the U.S. Of that group, just 138 are FBS starting quarterbacks. So, the guys in this tier can still consider themselves better than all but .00002% of their peers. So that's nice.
Did you know?
Loftis posted a 15.7 Total QBR and an 0-7 record as Charlotte's starter last year. His raw QBR was 18.1. That's the sixth-worst QBR posted by any QB in the playoff era.
Gotkowski's 44.2% completion rate was second worst by any QB last year with at least 100 dropbacks. The worst? Gotkowski's former teammate at Miami (OH), Henry Hesson.
There are 85 quarterbacks with at least 500 dropbacks over the previous two seasons. None has a worse touchdown-to-interception ratio than Armenta (1.17).
