Super Bowl LIX between the Kansas City Chiefs and Philadelphia Eagles is nearly upon us, and the betting market is loaded with player props.
My weekly betting guide features several data points for the final game of the NFL season, the top prop plays for the big game based on my projections and my analysis of a few notable lines I might bet. (You can also see my complete box score projection here.)
Note: Odds as of publication. For the most current odds, visit ESPN BET.
Kansas City Chiefs vs.
Philadelphia Eagles
Feb. 9, 6:30 p.m. ET (on Fox)
Spread: Chiefs -1.5 (Opened Chiefs -1.5)
Money line: Chiefs -125, Eagles +105
Total: 48.5 (Opened 49.5)
Clay's projected favorite: Eagles by 4.5 (66% to win outright)
Clay's scoring projection: Eagles 27.1, Chiefs 22.6
Before getting into my top plays for the game, here are some nuggets to consider when making betting decisions.
The Eagles operate the league's game-script adjusted run-heaviest offensive scheme (-7%). Personnel deployment is fairly balanced, slightly leaning toward "12" personnel, but the Philly offense has faced two-high safeties at a league-low 35% rate and man coverage at the fourth-highest rate (49.2%). Defenses blitz the Eagles at a league-high 33.7% rate.
