We have a double-header on tap today, potentially the last Sunday double-header of the NBA season unless multiple series go to seven games. If there are to be multiple seven-game series, these two matchups may be the best contenders with both shaping up as slugfests through three games.
The New York Knicks continue their battle against both the Indiana Pacers and their own injury attrition, while the Pacers look to build on their close Game 3 victory to try to tie the series.
Out West, the Denver Nuggets bounced back in a big way to blow out the Minnesota Timberwolves in Game 3 and avoid an 0-3 hole. Let's dig more into each matchup and find some angles of interest for players and/or teams to outproduce expectation.
Tyrese Haliburton over 21.5 points (-125). After struggling to score in Game 1, Haliburton has bounced back to score 34 and 35 points in Games 2 and 3. He has been scoring at will, exploiting the same Knicks defensive shortcomings against opposing point guards that allowed Tyrese Maxey to explode as a scorer last series. Haliburton is still battling through physical issues, with now three reported injuries in back spasms, a sacral contusion and a right ankle sprain. But, Haliburton also has a feel for the level of scoring the Pacers need from him to have any chance to defeat the Knicks and I expect him to remain on that level at home in Game 4.
Josh Hart over 12.5 rebounds (-140). Hart leads the playoffs with 120 total rebounds and 92 defensive rebounds, just ahead of Nikola Jokic in both categories. He was already a metronome on the boards, but with the injuries that have wracked the Knicks' frontcourt he's relied upon even more than ever to clean the glass. He has averaged 15.0 RPG in his past four outings with at least 13 rebounds in seven of his nine playoffs games so far, including all three games against the Pacers.
Denver Nuggets and Minnesota Timberwolves over 204.5 total points. The Timberwolves played amazing defense in Game 2, holding the Nuggets to only 80 points and under 100 points for the second straight game. But the Nuggets bounced back with 117 points in Game 3 while holding the Timberwolves to only 90 points. After exchanging blowouts in the past two games, I expect both the Nuggets and Timberwolves to be on-point and play their best games today with the stars leading the way on offense. Outside of Game 2, the Timberwolves and Nuggets have averaged 211.7 combined PPG in their other six matchups this season (including playoffs).
Michael Porter Jr. over 16.5 points (-140). Outside of the blip of Game 2, where the Timberwolves shut down the entire Nuggets offense, Porter has been the model of consistency in the playoffs. He has at least 19 points in every other game, averaging 22.1 PPG in those seven contests. He's shooting at high efficiency from both the field and behind the arc, and with the defense having to focus on Nikola Jokic and Jamal Murray he's getting consistent open looks as well as getting out on the break. I also like Porter over 17.5 points, which is available at plus money on ESPNBET (+110).
Projections and Injury Reports
Basketball Power Index by ESPN Analytics. Injury aggregation by Rotowire.com. Odds by ESPN BET
New York Knicks at Indiana Pacers
3:30 p.m. Gainbridge Fieldhouse, Indianapolis
Records (Against the Spread)
Knicks: 50-32 (44-37-1)
Pacers: 47-35 (44-36-2)
Line: Pacers (-5.5) Total: 218.5
Money Line: Knicks (+190), Pacers (-230)
BPI Projection: Pacers by 1.5, straight up 55%, 225.1 total points.
Injury Report:
Knicks: OG Anunoby, (OUT - Hamstring); Bojan Bogdanovic, (OUT - Foot); Duane Washington Jr., (OUT - Knee); Julius Randle, (OUT - Shoulder); Mitchell Robinson, (OUT - Ankle)
Pacers: Aaron Nesmith, (GTD - Shoulder); Tyrese Haliburton, (GTD - Back); Bennedict Mathurin, (OUT - Shoulder)
Denver Nuggets at Minnesota Timberwolves
East Semifinals - Game 4
8:00 p.m. Target Center, Minneapolis
Records (Against the Spread)
Nuggets: 57-25 (38-42-2)
Timberwolves: 56-26 (40-39-3)
Line: Timberwolves (-3.5) Total: 204.5
Money Line: Nuggets (+125), Timberwolves (-150)
BPI Projection: Timberwolves by 3.3, straight up 61%, 202.9 total points.
Injury Report:
Nuggets: Jamal Murray, (GTD - Calf); Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, (GTD - Abdomen); Reggie Jackson, (GTD - Calf); Vlatko Cancar, (OUT - Knee); Collin Gillespie, (OUT - Knee)
Timberwolves: Jaylen Clark, (OUT - Achilles)
