Championship Sunday kicks off with the New England Patriots visiting the Broncos in Denver for a chance to advance to Super Bowl LX.
Matt Bowen takes a closer look at both clubs, focusing on personnel and scheme, while also discussing how this Broncos offense will adapt with backup quarterback Jarrett Stidham getting the start for an injured Bo Nix. Liz Loza, Pamela Maldonado, Eric Moody, Ben Solak and Seth Walder share their best bets, analysis and DFS plays to help you get in on the action.
Note: Odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and subject to change.
When the Patriots have the ball
Bowen: Working against a Denver defense that plays heavy man coverage, Patriots offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels can feature more in-breaking concepts, which caters to the ability of quarterback Drake Maye, to deliver the ball with location. Plus, look for McDaniels to create catch-and-run opportunities on crossers and unders. On the ground, the Patriots will split touches with Rhamondre Stevenson and TreVeyon Henderson, with both backs able to produce as outlets for Maye in the pass game.
Edge: Broncos
Best bet: Kayshon Boutte OVER 37.5 receiving yards (-114). Boutte has at least 66 receiving yards -- and four or more targets -- in each of the Patriots' playoff wins. With his ability to play through contact and stretch the field, Boutte can win versus man coverage. And that's what he'll see Sunday in Denver.
When the Broncos have the ball
Bowen: With Stidham taking the snaps for Denver, we should expect a more heavily scripted passing game from coach Sean Payton: schemed throws to beat the Patriots' quarters coverage, plus the three-step concepts that allow Stidham to deliver the ball with rhythm and timing. With any backup quarterback, the deployment of the tight ends and backs creates more high-percentage targets, and we don't want to forget about a Denver run game that should see more usage versus New England.
Edge: Patriots
Best bet: RJ Harvey 47+ rushing yards (-109). In a game plan that could reduce the total passing attempts for Stidham, let's put our money on Harvey and the Broncos' rushing attack. Harvey has seen at least 13 carries in five of his last seven games, and the rushing volume must remain steady on Sunday for the Broncos to control offensive tempo.
Staff picks, best bets and props
Broncos +4.5 (-108)
Maldonado: I'll be honest, I don't love anything in this game, and a couple of weeks ago I put my flag in the ground with the Patriots to win the Super Bowl at 6-1. No need to force more exposure. That said, backing the Broncos is a defense-led cover. Denver tightens inside the red zone, forces field goals and keeps games compressed. New England can win and still fail to separate. Every Patriots score will be hard earned.
Jarrett Stidham OVER 198.5 passing yards (-113)
Moody: The Patriots' defense has had success stopping the run recently, which should push Denver to lean more on Stidham and the passing attack than many expect. Broncos head coach Sean Payton has sung Stidham's praises leading up to the game. Stidham averaged 270 passing yards per game in his four NFL starts.
TreVeyon Henderson 35+ rushing yards (-113)
Solak: While Henderson has taken a backseat to Rhamondre Stevenson in the Patriots' backfield pecking order, it's only slightly. Henderson has nine and 12 rushes over the Patriots' two postseason games to Stevenson's 10 and 16, respectively. The 15-yard discrepancy between their lines doesn't match up with the usage, especially when you consider Henderson' big-play ability and the Broncos' shaky run defense of late. I like all rushing lines for the Patriots generally, as there is always the potential this becomes a blowout in the second half.
Evan Engram longest reception OVER 11.5 yards (-115)
Loza: While he underwhelmed in his debut campaign as a Bronco, Engram closed out 2025 third on the team in routes run, targets drawn, catches collected and receiving yards registered. He caught 10 balls of 12 or more yards during the regular season. With Courtland Sutton likely to be covered by Christian Gonzalez and Pat Bryant questionable to play, Stidham will need to focus his efforts, boosting Engram's odds of catching at least one long ball. Additionally, the Patriots' defense surrendered 31 catches of 12 or more yards to opposing TEs during the regular season.
Elijah Ponder OVER 0.25 sacks (+295)
Walder: With Harold Landry III banged up and playing only 11 snaps last week, Ponder had a larger role, playing 30 snaps on defense. He's a depth player with just OK numbers (10% pass rush win rate and 4.0 sacks) but if he's going to get that kind of playing time -- and Landry did not practice Wednesday -- he becomes quite a bargain at this price. Part of the reason for that: Bo Nix was exceptional at sack avoidance, with a 3.3% sack rate that was best in the league. Odds are, Stidham isn't going to be nearly as good in that department.
Daily fantasy tips for DraftKings Captain Showdown
Loza's recommendations
Captain (scores 1.5x fantasy points): Drake Maye ($16,500). Maye's completion percentage has dipped below 60% for the postseason, yet he remains the most potent producer available in DFS. His play is unlikely to be clean given the matchup, but he's still likely to flirt with 250 yards and two passing scores.
Also in my lineup: Hunter Henry ($7,800). Stefon Diggs figures to receive the Pat Surtain II treatment while Denver's defensive line brings the heat. Maye will need a safety valve. Henry has the goods, finishing inside the top 10 TEs in targets, catches and receiving yards this season.
Maldonado's recommendations
Captain (scores 1.5x fantasy points): Maye ($16,500) touches every offensive outcome. Even if the passing efficiency dips, sacks and pressure actually increase his rushing and play-extension opportunities. In a low-total game, raw involvement matters more than splash plays.
Also in my lineup: Patriots D/ST ($5,400). Backup quarterback against elite coverage. Sacks, short fields and turnover chances all point here. If the Patriots cover, it's because the defense stepped up.
Solak's recommendations
Captain (scores 1.5x fantasy points): Jarrett Stidham ($13,500). Expect plenty of the field to get smart and play Stidham in the flex, assuming that many people will shy from a backup quarterback in a conference championship game outright. We can get unique by putting him in at captain and building lineups around a spread-the-wealth day on offense for the Patriots. I'll pair Stidham (CPT) with the Broncos D/ST and Patriots PK Andy Borregales to target low-scoring scripts in which Stidham accumulates pass attempts while trailing.
Also in my lineup: Kayshon Boutte ($6,800). For as long as they keep giving us Boutte cheaper than Diggs and Henry, I'll keep taking him. Boutte is the one with the explosive right-tail outing that can flip a slate on its head, as he gets the downfield targets and often the end zone targets when the Patriots push the ball outside the 20. While he may see some of Surtain in this game, he'll also see some of Riley Moss, who tends to struggle with receivers of Boutte's skill set.
